Ali G says"you have had yer last warning"

20 Jul 2004 18:31 GMT


BULLET: [Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but risk..
[Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but raises risk of higher rates at a faster pace if needed: Fed needs "to be prepared for the unexpected and to respond promptly and flexibly as situations warrant." Says econ activity has quickened but inflation has been boosted by "transitory factors"; labor mkt is improving and there could be follow-on effects for spending. Fed "will pay close attention to incoming data, esp on costs and prices." Says "Even if econ developments dictate that the stance of policy must be adjusted in a less gradual manner to ensure price stability, our economy appears to have prepared itself for a more dynamic adjustment of interest rates." Mentions surging corp profits and higher ULC, but says margins are leveling or seeing downward pressure and wage hikes are not yet a problem. Except oil, no heightened risk perceptions. Central tend,&'04: real GDP +4.5%-4.75%;PCE core px +1.75-2% \

Provided by: Market News International

20 Jul 2004 18:33 GMT


=Fed Sees Rising US Inflation As Econ Grows Rapidly
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised its forecasts for U.S. inflation this year, and said the U.S. economy would likely continue to expand at a brisk pace this year and next.

In its semiannual report to Congress, the Fed predicted its favored measure of inflation - the price index for personal consumption, excluding food and energy - would range between 1.75% and 2.0% for 2004. This marks an upward shift from February when the Fed said the overall consumption price index would probably rise between 1% and 1.25% for the year, and has core inflation bumping against the 2% limit policymakers view as an acceptable level.

The Fed said that starting with this report, it would begin forecasting inflation figures as measured by the core price index for personal consumption, rather than the overall index, because policymakers "believe is better as an indicator of underlying inflation trends."

For 2005, the Fed sees core inflation between 1.5% and 2.0%. In the year through May, the overall price index for personal consumption was up 2.5%, while core inflation was up 1.6%.

"To some extent, the upturn in core inflation reflected the indirect effects of higher energy prices, but other forces also played a role," the Fed said in the report released Tuesday. "Strengthening aggregate demand both at home and abroad induced a surge in the prices of many primary commodities and industrial materials."

Also, the falling value of the U.S. dollar made imported goods more expensive, the Fed noted.

Still, "the prospects also seem favorable for inflation to remain contained in the period ahead," the Fed said. "For one reason, some of the forces that contributed to the upturn in core inflation in the first half of 2004 are likely to prove transitory." Specifically, energy and commodity prices should moderate in the months ahead, the Fed said.

Last month, the Fed raised its key short-term interest rate for the first time in four years by a quarter point, as economic growth became broad-based and the pace of job creation picked up. The Fed said the move likely marked the beginning of a "measured" approach to lifting interest rates back to levels more normal for a healthy economy.

The Fed said that while some recent economic data have "been on the soft side, the available information on the outlook for the U.S. economy is, on balance, positive."

The Fed said its "central tendency" forecast is for U.S. gross domestic product to grow between 4.5% and 4.75% in 2004, a bit narrower range than the 4.5% to 5.0% called for in February. The Fed also predicted 2005 U.S. growth will fall in the range of 3.5% and 4.0%. The predictions measure growth in the fourth quarter over the fourth quarter of the prior year.

The figures are in line with private forecasts on Wall Street, which call for the U.S. economy to expand about 4.5% in 2004 and 3.8% in 2005.

"Households are enjoying a generally improving job market, rising real incomes and greater wealth, all of which are providing them with the confidence and wherewithal to spend," the Fed said.

The Fed's latest estimates call for unemployment to range between 5.25% and 5.5% in the fourth quarter this year, exactly matching the February forecast. As of June, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 5.6%, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

For 2005, the Fed predicts unemployment will drop to a range between 5.0% and 5.25%.

-By Elizabeth Price, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9295; Elizabeth.Price@dowjones.com

Yep, he's too late = US screwed:

20 Jul 2004 18:35 GMT


MARKET TALK/FX: Fed Bumps Up Its Inflation Bet

[MARKET TALK/FX is edited by Michael A. Pollock]
[of Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2004; michael.pollock@dowjones.com]

1835 GMT [Dow Jones] The Fed has updated its so-called central tendency forecasts and has upgraded its inflation assessment to a range of 1.75% to 2% for the current year. The growth bet is down a bit, with GDP gaining between 4.5% and 4.75% for the year. (MSD)

Tsys going nuts

hehehehe

20 Jul 2004 18:49 GMT


*Fed Fund Futures See 85% Chance 25 BP Rate Rise In Sep

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2004 14:49 ET (18:49 GMT)

20 Jul 2004 18:51 GMT


Greenspan says period of low rates must end
WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the period of low interest rates must end. In his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Greenspan dismissed concerns about recent softness in economic data. He said that the risks of tightening were outweighed by leaving low rates in place as the economy improves. Greenspan said the economy was prepared for gradual rate hikes and also could handle "less gradual" rate increases if necessary. Greenspan said the Fed was not yet sure whether the benign inflation environment would persist or if there were more deep seated forces at work pushing prices higher. The Fed will pay close attention to incoming cost and price data.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

fookin loon not going up much

use the swiss loon one hedge..

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=6818784

"buy the lonnie"

Scared bull:

20 Jul 2004 19:19 GMT


MARKET TALK: When Al Goldman's Nervous You Need To Be

Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(call: 201 938 2397; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

3:19 (Dow Jones) When perennial bull Al Goldman gets nervous you known there's something afoot in the stock market. "Last week our short-term patience ran out, and our caution ran up," the A.G. Edwards strategist said in a note to clients this morning. "We are advising aggressive traders to go to a hedged position by getting short weak stocks as well as long good-performing stocks." He does remain a bit philosophical, though. "Perhaps we have to get safely past the two political conventions and the Olympics or see more stability in Iraq before the positive fundamentals win out over the current bearish mood," he mused. (KJT)

investment challenge



im up for it

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=3433

me too :-)

That's what I said, moonblue

I'm not, but i am challenged.

i fancy, if there's anyone else to do a SIRA thread on advfn
SI an RA that is. A final fare well to advfn saying we ain't goint ot renew subs, dunnae forget paid subs ans fre handle don't always mix, so there's no way to see who is true.

i was gonna make you chairman mg

Nicol Elliot spooked me a bit o euro-usd, said rounding bottom is stronger pattern than double top, and its going up to break that and new highs.

lol 25p too much.

but its impulsiplicating down innit.

oh fook!

so long as i can bang a hammer like judge nutmeg and shout Silence In Court!