overgrowth
- 12 May 2005 22:21
Mediwatch is a small
company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is
out.
Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics
equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK,
Canada, Europe, India and Japan.
That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until
you remember the good ol' US and China.
These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's
export client portfolio by the end of 2005.
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The company is currently
heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is
not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively
to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions
affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing
in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate
as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.
Mediwatch normally
supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements.
They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known
US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical
who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated
sales team.
US FDA approval was
gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year
of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner
for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This
distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant
effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues
as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus
is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August.
In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They
have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment
distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the
markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber
stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up
to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even
more good news coming soon this year.
Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.
If that's not enough
to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also
developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing
some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at
very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology
to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next
few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going
to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours
too.
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Minder
- 24 Aug 2006 08:44
- 1113 of 1497
andy,
You decide, however having sold in May, if you were to buy back now it would be at a good discount to your selling price.
If News was very good then SP could pass that level before you can get in.
If a placing was needed and it was manageable but News was very good then we could see SP rise anyway.
If a placing was needed and it was at a discount to the SP the price may drop, but if the News was good then this may be temporary.
It could all go t*ts up and the SP could drop.
I am bullish here, so slightly biaised, but look at the products, look at the MDT manufacture and supply deal, look at PSAwatch and look at what you think the possible downside is, compare it with possible upside.Then look very carefully at what sort of deal would mean the accounts cannot be signed off until it is finalised.
Good Luck, only you can make your decision,
Treblewide
- 25 Aug 2006 14:15
- 1114 of 1497
i just wonder why if this MDT deal that they are doing is so good why there is no interest in this share.....no trades today and a distinct lack of buying over the last few months....
ptholden
- 25 Aug 2006 14:23
- 1115 of 1497
Tis a good question Trebs,I would suggest it is because nobody knows what the deal is worth in financial terms. Perhaps when the delayed Results put in an appearnace we might have a better idea.
pth
Minder
- 25 Aug 2006 21:02
- 1116 of 1497
Treblewide,
I think it is because the details have been kept very secret at Medtronic's insistence, things like how much will it cost to buy Medtronics Urodynamic assets? What is the annual turnover of the Urodynamic range and at what margin? Why do MDT want to sell them?
We will find out very soon and then some will be very surprised!
PTHolden,
I'll go for a few guesses, Urodynamic t/o = several times MDW current turnover,
Cost of buying = small, mainly because MDW could not afford to pay a lot, I wonder if Medtronic may take a stake in MDW in return for letting MDW takeover their Urology Diagnostics side.
Medtronic make far more out of their Urology therapies than the diagnostics side, they recently announced that they were investing more into studies of their therapies, perhaps the diagnostics side is non-core and MDT are prepared to hand it over to MDW, maybe in return for a stake in the Company. MDW are hungry, have some very good products ready for launch and would be able to take on the Urodynamic side and build them all into a growing Global Urology Diagnostics Company.
We will see shortly.
ptholden
- 25 Aug 2006 21:19
- 1117 of 1497
Minder
We know that the reason behind the Results delay is being driven by the MDT negotiations. If this were a straightforward deal, I wouldn't have expected such a delay. Therefore it must be quite compex, hopefully complex in such a manner that benefits MDW hugely. As you say, we will see shortly, just wish they would 'urry up!!
pth
Minder
- 25 Aug 2006 21:46
- 1118 of 1497
Remember we already have a deal in place to manufacture and supply these products, we would obviously take a healthy margin from this, the Management of Mediwatch obviously want more than this. I think they see an even greater opportunity here and that they believe they are able to conclude the deal with Medtronic to their benefit.
leedslad
- 29 Aug 2006 16:11
- 1119 of 1497
Not long no me thinks
:-)
ptholden
- 29 Aug 2006 16:16
- 1120 of 1497
Is that the same as 'love you long time, jig a jig, 5 dollar'?
:-)
pth
leedslad
- 29 Aug 2006 16:17
- 1121 of 1497
Not that long i hope :-)
Treblewide
- 29 Aug 2006 16:21
- 1122 of 1497
what until their cash runs out?
ptholden
- 29 Aug 2006 16:26
- 1123 of 1497
Now, now Trebs, think you will find the MDT deal will sort all that out, err, I hope :-)
pth
leedslad
- 29 Aug 2006 16:26
- 1124 of 1497
treblewide
No chance secured deal with there bank this Jan read results.
:-)
dave
Treblewide
- 29 Aug 2006 16:39
- 1125 of 1497
so wait a minute PTH you think MDT are going to
a) give them a part of their business for free and
b) give them some free cash flow also to operate it?
banking facility is for 2006 leedslad to facilitate increased sales, this will be reviewed constantly and is not permanent.....
I just cannot see the upside here......everyone is expecting no great increase in sales, sure they are negotiating a deal for a piece of MDT however if this was such a good part of MDT's business why would they be disposing of it? and even if it is profitable what are the margins and can it be operated by MDW, has anyone actually looked through MDT's previous results to try and quanitfy what MDW may be buying here...what if it is loss making?
Also how do MDW pay for this? even more debt/shareholder dilution?...this company has promised for years and years and again everyone is waiting saying ahh but this time next year!
unless absolute guidance is given on this MDT thing these will get hammered on results day IMHO.
nope too many unanswered questions again and now shareholders please wait another year for any chance of making money....
ptholden
- 29 Aug 2006 16:48
- 1126 of 1497
Trebs
No to both a or b.
What I am suggesting though is that MDT would not have entered into an agreement with a tiddler such as MDW if they were not convinced that MDW have all the pillars in place to support the agreement.
As an aside I agree with some of what you say. However the words in the Results will be all important re the SP, rather than the figures. Lots of unknowns here and we need some clarity in order to assure present shareholders and certainly new ones.
pth
leedslad
- 29 Aug 2006 16:51
- 1127 of 1497
Treble
You will have to look at Who was manufacturing these products for MDT to see why they want MDW to produce them. MDW have them over a barrel .They have already supplied 20G3 units to MDT
and sold 20 of the new multiscanners. Info on MDW web site.
All this without China/Hong kong supplies.
if you do some real research on this you will see massive upside from here.
Would not want to be Short.lol
dave
Treblewide
- 29 Aug 2006 16:54
- 1128 of 1497
not short yet but will be on any strength up to results however again one thing that would make me worry if i were still holding any of these is a fact that cannot be argued...the chart is terrible and if the upside is so huge...why is no one buying?
chart says back to 3p to me
lol
treble
ptholden
- 29 Aug 2006 16:58
- 1129 of 1497
Waiting for the words in the Results Treb, would you buy at the moment if you had just started researching the company? Don't think I would, oh and the chart is pants. Don't laff too much, you might pop a rib :-))
pth
leedslad
- 29 Aug 2006 17:05
- 1130 of 1497
Treble
Q.why is nobody buying?
A. Plenty of people have bought. the herd is busy chasing Oil/Gold.
chart is crap but MDW shares are tightly held so small sells move it down.
Next few weeks we will all Know so we will have to wait and see who is right.
My money is where my mouth is and i am happy with my large holding.
Treblewide
- 29 Aug 2006 17:40
- 1131 of 1497
if plenty of people have bought why has the price receded so much and if small sells move the price due to it being illiquid so does buying.
anyway last post on this until i do actually short it.
Minder
- 29 Aug 2006 22:36
- 1132 of 1497
Treblewide,
You are not really sure are you, you say the SP will get 'hammered' on results day, but you also say you will short it on any rise.
Are you just covering all bases or are you really going to take a side on this at one point and invest some money in it either short or long.
Until then you are just hot air and not even well informed hot air at that.