ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Just picking up John's thought of bear activity forcing the price down. It is interesting to see 50K sells today at opportune times, outweighing the actually greater number of buys and thus encouraging the price down. We are pretty near a support level at 60p. I am looking to strengthen my position at around this level: the problem being what to sell. The charts say sell; the fundamentals, or my perception of them, say buy and then hold for a bull run to 120p later this year. I can see the argument for biding one's time until the charts become more encouraging on one hand and there is more news flow on the other. We know ASC are trading well, at double last year's elvel, from the hitwise figures.

Eric

has anyone got the date of the next hitwise figs?cheers woodie

Always a bit uncertain when an SP retrenches this far from a linear upward path. For one thing the chart is "immature" with no previous history of recovering from such a set back (by definition).

On fundamentals and macro-economics (increase of on-line, decrease of high street trading as a demographic shift) I see ASC outliving my Fastbuck Fund into my Growth Fund cum dividend for a number of years tio come. So, as Eric says buy some more at around 60p and relax. IMHO, DYOR, OBE

SD

WOODIE

Hitwise figures are updated each Wednesday. There is a reference to the chart somewhere about Jan 10th which takes you straight there - I'll probably look it out tomorrow and will post result here. The rise in SEO has left me a surplus position on CFDs so I have bought three tranches of ASC in the last week. The other excellent post was that about 10 days ago by lemming investor. I think the downside risk is relatively small so buys at the current price will look really good in a couple of months time. Remember, that while the price has dropped with alck of fresh news this year, the company has been plotting its way, like Ellen McArthur, to world domination! Now thats an idea about Ellen!

Eric

time to cover your shorts and go long ASC for the next MAJOR wave UP

Offer goes from 66 to 67 as i write :)

Here we go.

Come on you ASOS!

Eric, I'll give you my arguments on NLR about ASC were pure sentimental rot, on reflection. The market has no memory. It doesn't care that you have a profit cushioin to fall back on.

Woodie: reference (click on) for hitwise figures is on post 953, Dawsinho, 4th Jan. Range is 240 to 160 since new year, not much less than Xmas season and twice level of year ago.

marketmaker: agree. This might be start of recovery.

Eric

marketmaker

Two large trades marked as sells, delayed by an hour: 498.6p at 64.5p at 12:33 and 450K at 65p at 12:38. Spread at time was 64p to 66p. The price took a step up shortly after. I suspect that these were buys and quite likely the closing of short positions. Do you concur? If so, it suggests that the brakes are off for a steady rise from here back to a more realistic price. backed that judgement by a new CFD using the margin on my SEO CFDs and bringing it to a healthy position and a decent average entry price.

Eric

have a look at the ROC (rate of change) graph at the bottom, the last time it went below 80 was in september 2004 just before the bull move up (from 50s to mid 80s) - a 70% ish rise..

clearly way oversold by simply looking at the RSI chart, probably due to heavy shorting, at some point the shorts will have to close and cover. multiple sells of 25k have been going on for last week or two weeks bringing the price down. looks like this seller has finished and the next move is almost certainly UP.

just a matter of time before it does the same again - you have to be in it to win it.

Marketmaker
Your explanation of RSI, MACD and ROC would be very much apprecaited if you have the energy sometime.
Thanks in advance
SD

marketmaker: I like and agree your analysis. Not so hot on the technicals, but I have noted the trades; the regular sales at appropriate times to push the price over the edge. The trades I refer to above could well have been buys to close positions. Lets face, it the bear push has been quite successful, taking the price down from low 70s to low 60s. 100 50K trades at 10p is 500K. Mind much easieer to have more money with less risk following the SEO rise. I see a steady rise from here and bought another CFD to build the position up utilisng funds from the margin on SEO CFDs. I like this winning twice (or more) with the same money!

StockDog: I don't beleive that is a reasonable question for an application thread. Suggest Kahn's Technical Analysis. I read half of it on the flight to Vancouver and the rest when resting from skiin gexertions. Great value and gives you good basic knowledge.

Eric

January Sales Bring in UK Surfers February 7 2005

The UKs online retail sector performed very strongly during the January period, according to online competitive intelligence service Hitwise. Retail sites saw a 20% increase in traffic year-on-year from January 2004 to January 2005.

This follows a Christmas season during which problems on the traditional High Street contrasted with major growth in online gift-buying. Many online retailers ran their own January sales, and although traffic was down overall from December 2004 the biggest month for online retail each year traffic for January 2005 exceeded 10% market share (10.6%), compared with 8.8% reached in January 2004.

Fashion performed particularly well, with online celebrity fashion superstore ASOS (www.asos.com) getting 28% more traffic than in January 2004 and high street clothing chain Next (www.next.co.uk) also witnessing strong growth online. The phrase next sale featured amongst the top 50 search terms used to find online shopping sites during January 2005.

Hitwise monitors how more than 25 million Internet users interact with over 500,000 web sites across 160 industry categories each day. Its own home page is at www.hitwise.co.uk

marketmaker: comaring the ASOS figures for janaury appears to show a 100% uplift from last year. So how come the 28% in the article which seems very low - or are we not comparing like with like? Thanks for posting the charts; it seems that ASOS have pretty well caught up with Next and therefore contending for first place.

Eric

Poor old ASC is being ignoored although probably about the safest buy on the market for a sure-fire doubling this year from the present price. Just look at the hitwise figures above (1123) to see that visits, and presumably trading, is way above the level of August, September, never mind a year ago.

Eric

Looking at the chart if the SP does not bounce off the 50 day m.a. we could see it fall to 54p or so. All the indicators suggest the stock is oversold but the Stochastic is in fact suggesting a further fall could be possible. Just my thoughts and wanted all you avid ASOS supporters to know. John

john thanks for info i except the price to drift down until fresh news hits the market or upgrade or tipped in paper etc.cheers woodie

We seem to be down to the faithful few now. Others have been seduced by the sure-fire winnings elsewhere! lol! Is that the makings of a head and shoulders, John? Suspect there are still signs of shorting activity; that's not a problem as I see it because it gives the opportunity to open further position(s). Still amused by the Shares article looking for the '2005 ASOS' and excluding ASOS! lola! The answer, by the fundamentals, is ASOS! rofl! Might even write to Shares again and point out their transgression! Just look at those hitwise figures above. ASOS are in no hurry to see the price rise because, unlike the manufacturers and technology companies (SEO, PDX, YOO) they have got a super cash flow and don't need a placing. Happy to play it long with them!

Eric

Count me amongst the faithful, Eric. I plan to hold long enough to receive a first dividend in due course. At what level would you buy more?

SD

SD

Good to know! I've bought 4 CFD positions at 65p to 67p and reckon I have enough; 25% at current levels. jgt I see as my guru although we come from somewhat different positions: John's emphasis is on technical anaysis; my aim is to pick the stock on fundamentals and trade on technical analysis. We are testing a support level at the moment; if it did break S, say to 55p, I would not be able to resist 2 additional positions. It depends what % of your portfolio it is - my majors are SEO for a relatively short-term killing and ASC for the medium term (a year or so); I would buy now if I wasn't up to 25% (of portfolio). All IMHO, of course. New methodology has helped successful decisions to get up around the 60% level which is some improvement (for me!)

Eric

Thanks, Eric, for your usual wisdom.

If SEO reaches 25p whilst ASC is still around the 60's then I may well switch some SEO proifit into ASC. Unfortunately, not enough funds for all the toys I currently fancy.

SD