Sharesmagazine
 Home   Log In   Register   Our Services   My Account   Contact   Help 
 Stockwatch   Level 2   Portfolio   Charts   Share Price   Awards   Market Scan   Videos   Broker Notes   Director Deals   Traders' Room 
 Funds   Trades   Terminal   Alerts   Heatmaps   News   Indices   Forward Diary   Forex Prices   Shares Magazine   Investors' Room 
 CFDs   Shares   SIPPs   ISAs   Forex   ETFs   Comparison Tables   Spread Betting 
You are NOT currently logged in
 
Register now or login to post to this thread.

The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

Your browser does not support JavaScript! Your browser does not support JavaScript!
Your browser does not support inline frames or is currently configured not to display inline frames.
Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 01 May 2004 09:34 - 1126 of 11056

Well yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster ride for me.

I sat with a long which was out of the money for the best part of the morning and moved into profit before I went to lunch. By the time I'd been to the bank and bought some gorgeous new sandals, lunch had fallen by the wayside. I got back just in time to raise my stop loss tight ahead of the 3pm data and found myself immediately being stopped for +45. I then made do with a ham and cheese roll and a yoghurt, Beebs.

I'm happy to now be out of the market until Tuesday. I noticed that thin trade in the few days ahead of the Easter weekend tended to cause sideways movement and screw up the oscillators. A similar thing looked to be happening yesterday. I'll just see what it looks like at 7am Tuesday and decide from there.

I'm going to try to get my head around Tellon's risk management post from a couple of days ago this weekend. I've looked at it about 4 times so far and still don't understand it.

:o)

Calender for next week coming up ........

hilary - 01 May 2004 09:36 - 1127 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

3-May

EUR

PMI - manufacturing (Apr)

8:00

53.6

53.3

Mon

CHF

PMI (Apr)

13:00

 

60.1

 

USD

ISM - manufacturing (Apr)

14:00

62.0

62.5

 

USD

Construction spending (Mar)

14:00

 

-0.1%M

 

GBP

Holiday (Markets closed)

 

 

 

 

JPY

Holiday (Markets closed)

 

 

 

4-May

AUD

Trade (Mar)

1:30

 

AUD-1.7bn

Tue

FRF

Consumer confidence (Apr)

6:45

 

-22

 

GBP

Consumer credit (Mar)

8:30

GBP1.9bn

GBP1.7bn

 

GBP

PMI - manufacturing (Apr)

8:30

54.0

53.7

 

EUR

PPI (Mar)

9:00

0.3%Y

0.0%Y

 

GBP

CBI distributive trades survey (Apr)

10:00

 

+17

 

USD

FOMC rate decision

18:15

1.00%

1.00%

 

AUD

RBA rate decision

23:30

5.25%

5.25%

5-May

CHF

CPI (Apr)

5:45

 

-0.1%Y

Wed

DEM

Unemployment, sa (Apr)

7:55

 

44k

 

EUR

PMI - services (Apr)

8:00

54.8

54.4

 

EUR

ECB Trichet speech (Frankfurt)

8:00

 

 

 

USD

ISM - non-manufacturing (Apr)

14:00

62.0

65.8

 

EUR

ECB Garganas speech (Athens)

 

 

 

 

USD

Fed conference on banking (Chicago, IL)

 

 

 

6-May

AUD

Retail sales (Mar)

1:30

 

0.1%M

Thu

CHF

SECO consumer climate (Apr)

5:45

 

-22.0

 

GBP

PMI - services (Apr)

8:30

 

58.7

 

EUR

ECB rate decision (Helsinki)

11:00

2.00%

2.00%

 

GBP

MPC rate decision

11:00

4.25%

4.00%

 

CAD

Building permits (Mar)

12:30

1.0%M

1.6%M

 

USD

Initial claims (1May week)

12:30

 

338k

 

USD

Non-farm productivity

12:30

4.00%

2.60%

 

CAD

Ivey PMI (Apr)

14:00

61.3

64.0

 

USD

FOMC minutes (16 Mar meeting)

18:00

 

 

7-May

AUD

RBA statement on monetary policy

1:30

 

 

Fri

CHF

Unemployment, sa (Apr)

5:45

 

3.9%

 

DEM

Industrial production (Mar)

10:00

0.7%M

-0.7%M

 

CAD

Labor force survey (Apr)

11:00

 

-13.3k

 

USD

Non-farm payrolls (Apr)

12:30

175k

308k

 

USD

Consumer credit (Mar)

19:00

USD7.0bn

USD4.2bn

 

CHF

SNB Hildebrand speech

 

 

 

 

USD

US Tsy Sec Snow speech (Chicago)

 

 

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Tellon - 01 May 2004 12:23 - 1128 of 11056

Hello,

Im very glad its the weekend.. I didnt enjoy friday. It was as if the market was ill. Looking back I think it was thin volume.

Looking forward to Thursday & Friday. I intend to get lots of pips this month.

Non-Farm Payrolls the best start to a month..

rpaco, Your welcome

peterG, I think your right i have always noticed a delay and it never spikes as much. I just offset my live prises by 2 - 3 pips each morning. Funny what you get used to.

Hil, Good Luck, If you still have trouble I can find the orginal work and mail you it.

Have a good bank hol's all.

Cloggs - 03 May 2004 18:48 - 1129 of 11056

Hi all
Just back from a weeks boat charter work, left a long oco got 46 pips, must try that again.

P

hilary - 04 May 2004 07:38 - 1130 of 11056

I know they're bullish on cable, but I don't like the way that their indicators have turned downwards as a result of the sideways action during the holiday. FOMC tonight could also hold people back from entering the market in the short term.

Update Time: Hong Kong 08:30 London 01:30 New York 20:30



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - May 4th

Schaff Tutorials - System Alerts





General Market Conditions
Given the partial holiday yesterday there is no surprise to yesterday's price movement which was very close to expectations. Indeed we feel that it supports our view for further Dollar losses within a medium term correction lower. AS such we look for key Dollar resistances to hold at 1.1890-1.1910 Euro, 1.3030-45 Swissie and we think that the British Pound may already have found a low around 1.7700. This should translate into a move later on today towards 1.2070 Euro, 1.2760-70 Swissie and 1.7845-80 British Pound. Once again the Japanese Yen looks removed from the general patterns against the European currencies and here we feel that while 110.00 holds there could still be a chance of seeing gains towards 111.30-55 before falling away once again. Any direct loss of 110.00 would imply a deeper move lower to 108.60-70.



USDJPY
Price: 110.20
Day View
Resistance: 110.35 111.70 111.10 111.30

Support: 110.00 109.80 109.50 109.20



Bias: While 110.00 holds a mild bias in favor of a move higher to 111.30-55

Bullish: The structure here is a little complex and while we favor a move to 111.30-55 it may be safer to wait for confirmation. In early trading we need to see 110.00 hold and assuming we see a move back above 110.35 and then key resistance at 111.70 we feel there should be follow-through to 111.30 at least and we suspect to 111.55. However, if seen, we feel this should provide a cap to this section of the rally.



Bearish: Although we marginally favor a bullish stance today we do recognize that the structure is quite ambiguous and any drop below 110.00 is going to begin threatening losses. Thus on a breach of 110.00 the emphasis would reverse and suggest the next drop should reach 109.20 at least and probably down to the important 108.60-70 area. However, we look for this level to hold. Further support is at 108.30.





Week View
Resistance: 111.15 111.60 112.20 113.25

Support: 109.20 108.70 107.25 106.30



With the partial holiday price spanned the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we still feel a little more consolidation is likely before further medium term strength. Schaff Trend Cycle has finally moved down towards zero while FXS-RSI has been moving sideways in neutral territory. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support. Break above 111.55 is required to confirm further upside.



Bullish: The short term picture is a little mixed but we retain an underlying medium term bullish stance. However, we do feel this may take a little while longer to develop and therefore resistance at 111.35-55 has a good chance of holding with the bigger risk for a drift back down to 109.50 at least with 108.70 providing further support. However, while this lower support holds we still consider the next move to be higher towards 113.25 at least and we feel a more aggressive target is possible at 114.25.



Bearish: The downside from 111.01 has been shallow thus far and we still feel there is more chance of a return to the 109.50 level once again. Further support is at 108.30-70 and this should provide a good base. Thus only below 108.00-30 would suggest a weaker performance and a return to 107.00-30.



Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 109.25 111.15 112.30 114.90

Support: 104.80 103.30 101.30 99.50



Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.





EURUSD
Price: 1.1935
Day View
Resistance: 1.1945 1.1980 1.2005 1.2040

Support: 1.1915 1.1890 1.1855 1.1840



Bias: Higher from the 1.1890-1.1915 area

Bullish: Price has been a bit choppy but as expected has moved back down to the 1.1917 corrective low. We feel there is room for one further dip towards 1.1890-1.1910 but this should provide a platform for further gains to break above initial resistance at 1.1945-50 which should take price back to 1.1980. Break of this higher level would confirm further gains which we see progressing to the 1.2070 level which we feel should hold on the day. Further resistance is at 1.2115 and 1.2160.



Bearish: Price has moved down nicely from the 1.2012 high but we cannot get bearish until the 1.1890 level is broken. Only then would we feel the upside has been completed at 1.2012 and further losses are likely. Next support is at 1.1840 break of which would signal a retest of the 1.1758 low. Next larger support is at 1.1695.







Week View
Resistance: 1.2070 1.2160 1.2200 1.2310

Support: 1.1890 1.1840 1.1760 1.1570



Yesterday saw price spanning the 4-hour Pivot Cloud but in line with our expectations. Schaff TC1 is now decling but close to zero while FXS-RSI has also declined but is in neutral territory. With the break of 1.1950 the emphasis does appear to be to the upside with likely targets around 1.2070-90 and then 1.2160. However, watch this area closely for signs of reversal.



Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: The reversal from 1.1805 and break of 1.1950 signals a move to 1.2075 at least and possibly 1.2160-00. While this is possible price should remain above 1.1890-1.1920. At the target a further set back is possible and we shall need to see how deep this pullback bites. Further resistance is at 1.2335.



Bearish: The break of 1.1950 appears to reduce the chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend and may cause a period of choppy and erratic trading. We do feel that the initial move will be higher towards 1.2070 and probably up to 1.2160-00 at least. Thus only a break below 1.1890 would cause to re-assess and probably cause a move back to 1.1840 and then 1.1758-00 at least.





Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 1.2085 1.2325 1.2455 1.2655

Support: 1.1720 1.1560 1.1310 1.1165



While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.





USDCHF
Price: 1.3010
Day View
Resistance: 1.3025 1.3045 1.3075 1.3100

Support: 1.3000 1.2980 1.2955 1.2915



Bias: Lower from the 1.3030-45 area

Bullish: Although price development was slightly different from expectations we have seen a test of the strategic 1.3025-45 resistance. We feel there is a good chance of a further test of this resistance with a target at 1.3045 but we feel this will hold. Thus only above 1.3050 would trigger follow-through higher once again. Next resistance is at the 1.3095-00 corrective peaks and a break her and more importantly at 1.3125 would see price continue higher to retest the 1.3226 high.



Bearish: As expected we have seen test of the 1.3025-45 resistance target mentioned yesterday and this may well have provided a peak but we suspect there should be one further test during the first half of the day but while 1.3045-50 holds we look for loss of 1.2980-00 to signal the next leg lower to 1.2915 and then we look for a move down through 1.2830 and to 1.2760-70 where we feel a temporary base should develop. Next support is at 1.2710-20.





Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 1.3125 1.3225 1.3360

Support: 1.2825 1.2760 1.2710 1.2655



Yesterday saw trading around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which has managed to break above but not cleanly. Schaff Trend Cycle moved higher to reach 100 while FXS-RSI matched this rally but has yet to reach overbought territory. We feel the 1.3025-45 area will hold and generate the expected decline first to 1.2760-70 and then the 1.2700-20 area.



Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: Currently there appears to be an upward bias but we feel this should not break above the 1.3050 level. Thus only a break here and then at 1.3100-25 would call for direct gains back towards 1.3226 and probably higher with next targets at 1.3360 and 1.3490.



Bearish: Although the medium term correction has been choppy we continue to consider the next likely turning point will be back in the area of the 1.2710 corrective low. Resistance at 1.3025-45 should hold to allow this additional drop to occur. However, we look for a medium term base in the 1.2710 area and for further gains. Thus only below 1.2700 would allow losses to extend towards 1.2596 before higher.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.3085 1.3235 1.3410 1.3700

Support: 1.2625 1.2515 1.2180 1.1700



The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.





GBPUSD
Price: 1.7715
Day View
Resistance: 1.7730 1.7755 1.7780 1.7805

Support: 1.7700 1.7660 1.7635 1.7600



Bias: While 1.7695-00 holds we look for a move higher

Bullish: Price has developed slightly differently than expected but our underlying view remains unchanged. We feel that the 1.7700 low seen thus far may well prove to be the low but we should allow for one final test lower but should still hold above the 1.7695-00 area. Form here or a direct break above first 1.7730 and then 1.7775-85 we look for gains to move higher towards 1.7845 at least with risk of seeing a stronger move take us all the way back to 1.7935.



Bearish: While we still prefer a bullish scenario we do see that we are close to a break lower and this should be kept in mind. Any move below 1.7695-00 would appear to turn the emphasis to bearish with the first move dropping to the 1.7595-1.7610 support. Any follow-through here would trigger losses down to 1.7560 and we feel to 1.7435.


GBP%20May%204.gif


Week View
Resistance: 1.7845 1.7935 1.8020 1.8075

Support: 1.7695 1.7595 1.7435 1.7285



Price has continued to span the 4-hour Pivot Cloud in what appears to be a small triangle pattern. Schaff Trend Cycle has begun to move lower from 100 while FXS-RSI is continuing move in neutral territory. This recovery does suggest a period of consolidation and we feel there is room for gains to reach 1.7845 at a minimum and possibly as high as 1.7935.



Bullish: In our bullish preference the correction seen over the past few days has not been quite as expected but appears to have developed in a small triangle pattern which means that if we see the 1.7775-85 area cleared we should see a move to 1.7845 minimum and we suspect towards 1.7935. However, we need to watch this resistance closely sine it does have potential to reverse the upward move. Further resistance is at 1.8020, 1.8075 and 1.8145.



Bearish: Although the dips during the correction from 1.7811 have been deeper than expected we are still not in favor of a directly bearish scenario. However, any loss of 1.7695 and then the 1.7580-00 area would imply aggressive losses that should move down to 1.7410-35 at least. In this event it is likely after a small correction to see the decline reach 1.7285 and 1.7190. However, as of this point we give this scenario low risk.



Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 1.8300 1.8605 1.8875 1.9025

Support: 1.7650 1.7165 1.6905 1.6565



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

hilary - 04 May 2004 07:46 - 1131 of 11056

It's all in the words

So the focus will again fall to the language of the statement the FOMC will release when the meeting ends, namely the part that said the Fed's not ready to raise rates:


"With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation," said the FOMC's March statement.

Economists said they would be surprised if the word "patient" is still found in Tuesday's statement.

"We believe it is time for the Fed to drop the sentence," said a note from economists at Lehman Brothers. "Until August last year, the Fed had never included a longer-term commitment about policy in its directive and, with the economy finally showing clear signs of normalization, it is time for a more normal directive."

fed_rate_moves_mar04.gif

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 08:09 - 1132 of 11056

morning forexers,
still long cable from last week,
and looking for 179.00

Tellon - 04 May 2004 09:49 - 1133 of 11056

Morning All, Europe PMI's coming out atm..

Still sitting on my hands..

foale - 04 May 2004 09:57 - 1134 of 11056

Well done Beeble...

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 09:58 - 1135 of 11056

target hit somewhat ahead of schedule,
was expecting thurs/fri,
this makes me think could be in for a very good week
staying long for now.

edit; tks david - hope you got some of the ride !

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 11:54 - 1136 of 11056

I'm trying to decide if this is consolidation or resistance,
seems to be getting ready for a big move - wish i knew which way.
a small correction to say 178.50 wouldn't be a problem if you still
fancy the bullish side....

Cloggs - 04 May 2004 12:09 - 1137 of 11056

Beeb
I am long with a stop at 178.50 EUR/USD & Cable seem to be in tandom at the moment.

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 12:17 - 1138 of 11056

cloggs; indeed you could overlay the charts this morning
with little divergence.

Hilary, or anyone else;
i know of someone wanting to swat up on forex, and he's looking for
suitable books to read on the subject. anyone know of any good reading ?

hilary - 04 May 2004 12:26 - 1139 of 11056

Beebs,

Well done on you long this morning. I've had "rabbit in the headlight syndrome" this morning unfortunately, so I guess I'll have to be patient now and wait for the next downleg.

I'm not sure if it was on this thread or on a different bb, but somebody asked about books a while ago. The concensus was that, because it's being traded to the charts, general charting (Murphy) and trading strategy (Piper) books offer the best reads.

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 12:29 - 1140 of 11056

tks cheese and ham roll with yoghurt

hilary - 04 May 2004 12:31 - 1141 of 11056

Deepfried camembert in breadcrumbs with a mango chutney dip on a bed of salad.

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 12:34 - 1142 of 11056

trust you, got to get the word 'bed' in there somewhere

hilary - 04 May 2004 12:40 - 1143 of 11056

The concept relates to bottom position rather than furniture. A "divan of salad" doesn't quite sound right.

Beeblebrox - 04 May 2004 14:03 - 1144 of 11056

stalling a bit here - resistance 179.35ish
if it goes, 180.00 today

foale - 04 May 2004 16:05 - 1145 of 11056

Beeble you staying long til 18050-80 then
bit of resisitnace here is you can see a 4 hourly chart
Register now or login to post to this thread.