Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Jefferies note today:
"Robust trading in Q3 continued into Q4. Thomas Cook now confirms results will be in-line with consensus for FY13E. We anticipate that the November finals will comment on further cost savings opportunities, this time structural benefits. With superior growth rates likely, it is difficult to justify the valuation discount to TUI Travel. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with 200p PT.
Q4 delivers. TCG has confirmed it expects FY13E results in-line with consensus. Our £248m EBIT forecast compares with a £253m consensus. This is despite: (i) a relatively less favourable 'lates' market this year (less bad European weather); and (ii) absorbing uncertainty around trading caused by unrest in Egypt, Turkey and Syria, as well as volatile oil and currency markets.
Key pre-close features: Summer trading is now 95% sold, with bookings outperforming capacity management by 4% (average selling prices up in each segment). UK capacity is now 97% sold, with bookings down 3%, capacity down 2.5% and average sales prices up 4%. Continental Europe bookings are flat (capacity down 10%, average prices +1%, with 15% capacity left to sell).The company is confident of meeting the cost out saving target by year end (£170m; and £400m by FY15).
Winter and summer 14. Although early days, winter trading has started more slowly but with active capacity management selling prices are 'up strongly in all markets'. No comment on summer 2014 capacity. We see continued industry capacity discipline as an important driver of a re-rating for the sector.
Cost savings: more to come. TCG recently identified a further £10m of cost savings which it expects to achieve in FY15, making a total of £400m. We expect more as the company focuses on the Wave II cost savings programme, aimed at more structural opportunities such as online distribution. The finals on 28 November should provide more guidance. Thomas Cook is delivering, and we expect it to continue to do so. Gross margins are improving, net debt has fallen and the balance sheet considerably strengthened, more cost savings are promised and, importantly, trading is robust. Yet the shares still trade at a discount to its major competitor, TUI Travel (TT/ LN, Hold, PT 380p). We think this is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, especially given the likely higher growth rates at Thomas Cook Group.
Valuation/Risks
Thomas Cook trades on 6.1x lease adjusted EV/EBITDAR (FY15E), compared to TUI Travel on 6.7x. Given TCG's superior self-help opportunities and growth prospects, we think this discount is difficult to justify. Our 200p PT is based on TCG trading at the same multiple as TT. Our 200p PT would put TCG on 12x FY15E PE, but we see upside risk to our estimates.
Risks: failure to deliver on cost-saving plans, volatile FX and oil price, event risk, and excess capacity."

Negative Head and Shoulders on the chart.

26 Sep 2013 Thomas Cook Group... TCG Prime Markets Buy 146.30 155.60 150.00 150.00 Reiterates

Launch of New Brand

THE THOMAS COOK GROUP ANNOUNCES ITS BRAND UNIFICATION

For the first time in its 172 year history the Thomas Cook Group today announces the unification of its brands and market activity under one common symbol, the "Sunny Heart". Simplifying the brand proposition is a key element in the group's profitable growth strategy, building on Thomas Cook's already strong brand heritage and projecting its transformation into a single united business.

Harriet Green, Group Chief Executive of Thomas Cook, said: "At our Capital Markets presentation in March we committed to reduce our multiple UK brands from 30, to less than 10 consumer facing and B2B brands, eliminating confusion and making it easier for customers to interact with us. This major milestone in the transformation of our company, as we continue to develop our product offering and focus on our omni-channel approach, is much more than the rollout of a new logo. It symbolises how we are leveraging the combined power of the group to maximise our presence in the mind of customers, whilst helping to reduce cost."

The "Sunny Heart" will replace the current "Globe" symbol on Thomas Cook's websites, and in its international stores, airline fleet and throughout its UK headquarters and overseas offices. The group's many leading brands, such as Neckermann in Europe, Ving in Sweden, Condor in Germany and Elegant Resorts in the UK, will all connect with the "Sunny Heart" in different ways. For more information on the new brand approach visit: www.thomascookgroup.com/strategy

Michael Healy, Group Chief Financial Officer, said: "Having already piloted this approach in our North European businesses since November 2012, we have proven that it has heightened brand awareness, driven more website traffic, increased early and repeat bookings and improved conversion rates. This unification has been developed internally and we are rolling it out appropriately for this stage in our transformation journey."

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group has sold 100% of the Thomas Cook Egypt and Thomas Cook Lebanon businesses to Yusuf Bin Ahmed Kanoo (Holdings) Co WLL of Bahrain for a cash consideration of £6.5 million.

Thomas Cook Egypt and Thomas Cook Lebanon offered outbound corporate and leisure travel to Egyptian and Lebanese customers, as well as foreign exchange services in Egypt and Lebanon. Thomas Cook would continue to offer its customers from other markets travel services to Egypt.

they didn't get much for it did they ....... Kanoo is a family owned Saudi concern with lots of interests across a wide field of industries

Hi Cynic Ive come to the decision that these are fully valued more or less and better opps reamin elsewhere.

Of course their will be up and down days but cannot see these rising substantially over the medium term.

The market discrepancy on SP has been filled imo.

i'm positively undecided :-)

so far, i've banked some good profits on this one, but you may be right that it will do little more than tread water for a while.
however, with the economy both here and across the world now recovering, the travel industry is one that should benefit quite significantly.

advertising (WPP) is another one to watch as already posted on that thread

tried to make a comparative performance chart with TUI, but have failed :-(

Your post #921 on page 47. If you copy & paste the HTML, that should work!

thanks harry ..... had the wrong code for TUI
anyway, herebelow over the last 6 months - over a year was meaningless due to TCG's low start point
as you will see, the two stocks closely mirror one another with TUI (red) marginally the poorer performer

Tried booking a holiday for Italy (Lake Garda ) for next year through TC and was told they have pulled out, due to pressing hotels for to bigger discount rates. Not good for TC to lose destinations that are very popular. Still booked through TC but they had to go to a competitor.

never confuse turnover with profit .... many companies go broke because they take on biz that is not (truly) profitable

Having taken profit a while back, seems TCG sp is drifting back down to an interesting level again. I wonder if winter bookings are going well. Seems to be a different market from the cheap ('ish) summer sun holiday. Bad figures could knock this back further......hmmmmmmmmm. Broker targets for 180p & 190p never materialized.

UK:TCG getting a mention in The Times today.It's 'the bet of the day' as spread betters take their position in TCG ahead of update next week

Positive Broker Recommendations....

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

20 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Jefferies International Buy 152.70 200.00 200.00 Reiterates
19 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Credit Suisse Outperform 152.70 175.00 175.00 Reiterates
15 Nov 13 Thomas Cook Group... Investec Hold 152.70 185.00 155.00 Downgrades
07 Oct 13 Thomas Cook Group... Citigroup Buy 152.70 195.00 195.00 Reiterates
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Prime Markets Buy 152.70 150.00 150.00 Reiterates
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Shore Capital Buy 152.70 - - Retains
26 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Numis Hold 152.70 150.00 150.00 Retains
13 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... Morgan Stanley Overweight 152.70 160.00 160.00 Reiterates
12 Sep 13 Thomas Cook Group... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 152.70 180.00 180.00 Reiterates
05 Aug 13 Thomas Cook Group... Citigroup Buy 152.70 147.00 195.00 Upgrades

Numis Hold 151.70 148.40 150.00 175.00 Retains

Thomas Cook Group Price Target Increased to GBX 175 by Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd (TCG)

Posted by Wayne Rhoads on Nov 25th, 2013 //

Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd raised their price objective on shares of Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) from GBX 150 ($2.43) to GBX 175 ($2.84) in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday, Analyst RN reports. The firm currently has a “hold” rating on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s target price indicates a potential upside of 17.90% from the company’s current price.

Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) opened at 152.00 on Monday. Thomas Cook Group has a 52-week low of GBX 19.288 and a 52-week high of GBX 170.90. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 145.8 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 144.4. The company’s market cap is £1.360 billion.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Panmure Gordon reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at AlphaValue downgraded shares of Thomas Cook Group to a “reduce” rating in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 155.50 ($2.52) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 154.80 ($2.51). Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have assigned a hold rating and twelve have assigned a buy rating to the company. Thomas Cook Group presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of GBX 150.02 ($2.43).

Thomas Cook Group plc operates under six geographic segments: UK, Central Europe, West & East Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Airlines Germany.

Sale of Neilson Active Holidays

Thomas Cook Group plc (the "Group") announces today that it has agreed to sell its specialist activity tour operator Neilson Active Holidays Ltd. to private equity firm Risk Capital Partners for consideration of £9.15 million. The transaction is expected to complete on or about 10 December 2013. All other parts of Thomas Cook's UK tour operations remain unaffected by today's announcement.

Commenting on the sale, Harriet Green, Group Chief Executive of Thomas Cook Group plc, said:

"The transformation of our UK business - and that of the Group overall - is happening at pace. We have previously undertaken a comprehensive review of our product portfolio and where we want our business to be. Today's announcement is the result of our continuing rationalisation of our business. Building on our other recently announced disposals, it will allow us to focus on those key brands, propositions and products that will deliver our strategy for profitable growth."

Thomas Cook upgraded by Numis
25th November 2013, 09:21

Numis believes “something is cooking” at Thomas Cook Group [LON:TCG] and has upgraded its recommendation to ‘add’ from ‘hold’ ahead of Thursday’s preliminary results and strategy update.

While the broker states that it does not anticipate a particularly positive set of trading results, given the company has already indicated that winter trading had started slowly, it does expect the strategy update to lay out further cost-out savings of at least £100 million, in addition to increased targets for new product initiatives.

Analysts believe such an announcement will push the shares higher and have therefore increased their price target to 175 pence per share from 150 pence.

Interestingly, 70 per cent of brokers now rate the shares as an ‘add’ or better, according to Broker Forecasts consensus data.

At 9:20am: Thomas Cook Group share price was up 4.15 pence at 152.55 pence.

Missed this mon apologies....

Thomas Cook Group Stock Rating Upgraded by Numis Securities Ltd (TCG)
Posted by Wayne Rhoads on Nov 25th, 2013

Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) was upgraded by investment analysts at Numis Securities Ltd to an “add” rating in a note issued to investors on Monday, American Banking and Market News reports. The firm currently has a GBX 175 ($2.84) price objective on the stock, up from their previous price objective of GBX 150 ($2.43). Numis Securities Ltd’s target price indicates a potential upside of 17.90% from the company’s current price.

Shares of Thomas Cook Group (LON:TCG) opened at 153.083 on Monday. Thomas Cook Group has a one year low of GBX 19.288 and a one year high of GBX 170.90. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 145.8 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 144.4. The company’s market cap is £1.369 billion.

TCG has been the subject of a number of other recent research reports. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Panmure Gordon reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.92) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at AlphaValue downgraded shares of Thomas Cook Group to a “reduce” rating in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a GBX 155.50 ($2.52) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 154.80 ($2.51). Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have issued a hold rating and twelve have issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. The company currently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of GBX 150.02 ($2.43).

Thomas Cook Group plc operates under six geographic segments: UK, Central Europe, West & East Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Airlines Germany.