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Coffee Heaven - A heavenly share for penny punters ? (COH)     

overgrowth - 06 Oct 2003 22:47

underground01_2.jpgA busy day in the Warsaw Underground ! Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=COH&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=COH&Si

bmw325 - 07 Jun 2007 11:32 - 1141 of 2037

MLR are one of very many companies in their field...a very small cog in a very large wheel and could go out of business at any time.

VERY HIGH RISK.

David10B - 07 Jun 2007 12:09 - 1142 of 2037

AS SAID OF COURSE IT IS, JUST LIKE 'EM ALL--YOU PAYS YOUR MONEY, YOU TAKES YOUR CHANCE.

ITS A BIG BOYS GAME.

David10B - 07 Jun 2007 12:34 - 1143 of 2037

Talking about big boys AdieH has gone very quiet, and that is very strange for a senior ramper.

bmw325 - 07 Jun 2007 16:00 - 1144 of 2037

hello..I'm back.

David10B - 07 Jun 2007 17:03 - 1145 of 2037

SEEMS THAT I AM NOT ALONE, TAKEN FROM ADVFN WITH FULL ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THERETO.

I would not like to see a rush of buyers at 25p as if it hits 25p its going to go below the 20p barrier.

See what you make of this post from ADVFN.

cordwainer - 7 Jun'07 - 15:40 - 6085 of 6085


Still not much resistance. The sensible target on comparables might be 25p but everybody will try to pre-empt everybody else on buying back in.

bmw325 - 07 Jun 2007 17:45 - 1146 of 2037

Looks like you've been sqelched by everyone because of your constant postings every few mins...perhaps you should spend more time with your grandchildren.

Very sad.

trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 06:53 - 1147 of 2037

Posted on another board by The Money Shot.

This is from about 5 weeks ago. Nothing has changed since so hopefully we should still be on track:

Coffeeheaven upbeat after strong year
Kam Patel, 30/04/07 15:06

Coffeeheaven, the coffee bar operator with a focus on central Europe, put out a strong full year update. An improving economic climate across its chosen markets augurs well for longer-term prospects.
The group, whose two biggest markets are Poland and the Czech Republic, saw full year to March 2007 sales jump 60% to 10.2m, well ahead of company's previous guidance of 9.6m. Group like for likes advanced by a hefty 27% despite tough comparatives.

Across its key markets, Poland, the biggest contributor, saw like for like growth of 27%. In the Czech Republic, the second biggest, like for likes increased by 39%, while in Latvia they advanced 16%.

The company is guiding towards full year EBITDA of around 950,000, in line with market expectations. Its cash position at year-end stood at 1.9m versus 2.9m last time as it continued with aggressive expansion.

Coffeeheaven had 65 stores trading at the end of the year, up 22 on last time. During the year it opened stores in two new markets, Bulgaria and Slovakia. Over the current year it plans to add at least one new market within the central European region.

The group assures it has made a strong start to its new year but cautions it expects its very strong like for like growth rate to moderate in the coming months as it comes up against increasingly tough comparatives.

It also says that as the macro-economic picture across central Europe improves, the competitive environment in the coffee bar sector is changing. The group is seeing more interest by international coffee bar operators in central European markets, for the most part in the form of franchise and/or joint venture arrangements. It believes responsible new entrants will only help increase consumer awareness and accelerate sector growth from which coffeeheaven, as central Europe's market leader, will benefit.

Still, aided by improving economic environment in its chosen markets feeding through to consumer confidence and spending, the group is confident that, based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates, it can maintain its unbroken historical annual sales growth rate of around 50%. It expects to make 'significant' additional investment in expanding the business.

The update pleased Numis analyst Steve Davies, who reiterates 'buy' on the stock with a target price of 66p.

For 2008, Numis is expecting like for like growth of 10% in Poland; 15% in other territories, including Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria; and 10% in Latvia.

Davies has cut his 2008 pretax profit forecast from 900,000 to 500,000 (giving earnings per share of 0.4p) to reflect a higher rate of new stores being opened in 2008 and higher operating costs in Poland. He believes, however, that his assumptions are conservative and there may be opportunities for the group to beat the forecasts.

For 2009, Davies expects pretax profit will increase by 80% to 900,000, giving earnings per share of 0.7p.

Overall, he believes there is potential upside to his forecasts and valuation.

Andrew Wade, analyst at Seymour Pierce, also responded positively to the strong update, saying it should inspire confidence among investors. 'With further opportunities for new stores and macroeconomic factors moving in coffeeheaven's favour, we expect growth to continue apace,' he says.

Wade notes, however, that the AIM listed group had a sparkling run over its financial year to 31 March, with the shares rising 72% over the period. In the light of this, and ahead of speaking to company, he has placed his buy recommendation under review.

coffeeheaven international PLC shares were up 0.25p to 42.75p by mid afternoon, valuing the group at 45.7m.

David10B - 08 Jun 2007 08:14 - 1148 of 2037

Good Morning chaps.

Yes the above was on iii and indeed it was written by Kam Patel, on the 30/04/07 and I bet he does not have egg on his face today but a whole Bernard Matthews' chicken farm.

Yoe see my friends as illustrious as the article is, it not once mentions two essential ingredients, intrinsic value and the coming competition.

The rest of the COH flaws I have already repititously outlined.

So much for Mr Currie to whom, with respect, I say bad luck old chap you called this wrong, and the rest who went in at 41p, the same applies.

Time will tell, but to me this is just another overpriced coffee outlet riding on hype.

Snack Attack got it right as they bought a whole retail chain out there for around 200000 pounds I believe but please check the figures I may be out.

I have long said that COH pays too much for its leases and does not make enough profit.

Now it looks like the market is waking up to my analysis and subsequently the price will fall.

bmw325 - 08 Jun 2007 08:19 - 1149 of 2037

LOLOLOLOL

You have had egg on your mug since you jumped at 18P...

David10B - 08 Jun 2007 08:20 - 1150 of 2037

To trigger45

I chose this one off iii(with full acknowledgement thereto) which I thought was far more realistic:-

SELL Re: Snowball effect Pedro Jack

Good to see you again on this board Rob...Like you I sold out at about the same level as you...My buy back in target is about 25p-30p range which IMHO is about the correct value for the time being...


trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 08:24 - 1151 of 2037

And as you type, yes it got the better of me and I unsquelched you, your wonderful CFE has 2.8% compared to COH 1.4%, but you don't like to talk about that do you.
Also I see CFE don't own many or any of their sites.
Your views on a postcard.
The trouble with you David is you just make yourself look a fool because you hate this share for whatever reason.
When COH drops it's because it is overvalued, but no mention of CFE and MLR.

bmw325 - 08 Jun 2007 08:29 - 1152 of 2037

trigger

He hates this share because he has a very unhealthy hatred of Worthington...

trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 08:42 - 1153 of 2037

Yes I know bmw325. I can't be bothered to go back through all the junk posts, but I believe his main beef when he started posting was more about RW than anything else.
It now appears he wants to save the investment world from AdieH and his ramping.

Now as far as I can remember I can't recall AdieH ever making any crazy claims as to the share price going through the roof or willing people to buy.

And IMHO anyone who buys on the stregnth of what AdieH posts or sells on what David10B has to say deserves to lose money.

It's a dog eat dog world and if you can't be bothered to do your own research, no sympathy from me.

trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 08:43 - 1154 of 2037

When COH drops it's because it is overvalued, but no mention of CFE and MLR.

Still waiting for an answer David.

bmw325 - 08 Jun 2007 08:44 - 1155 of 2037

DYOR...the only way.

bmw325 - 08 Jun 2007 08:59 - 1156 of 2037

trigger

The reason he hates Worthington is because he blames him for the downfall of BKE and not market forces and he lost a great deal of money when he eventually jumped.

He has been slagging off Worthington for a couple of years with no sign of letting up...apparently Worthington reads all the BB's and has a good laugh over him.

Ultimate Cynic - 08 Jun 2007 09:06 - 1157 of 2037

I think he is sulking, CFE down again today. OUCH! I have a big holding there.
UC.

trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 09:08 - 1158 of 2037

bmw325

Agree. What we need to do is make him see the error of his ways. Bit like an acoholic really. Once he admits he has a problem we can all do a group hug and start to get him on the road to a contented life.

In the meantime though...

David I will ask again. Everytime COH drops it's because it is overvalued yet your other shares drop and it's down to profit taking or the market.

Explain please.

bmw325 - 08 Jun 2007 09:11 - 1159 of 2037

trigger

I bet he is composing one of his massive monologues at this moment...beware.

trigger45 - 08 Jun 2007 09:13 - 1160 of 2037

Ultimate Cynic

Although I'm not invested in CFE it does look interesting. The new management has worked wonders in such a short space of time, but don't tell David.
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