Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Fundamentalis
Totally agree I will put this stock to the back of the draw and let it carry on slowly growing.

Blimmy Dana steady on 6+ WHATS going on.

Driver

maybe the market is finally waking up to the fundamentals and putting a fairer value on the stock :-)

been rumours that MLR are close to agreeing the sale of their stake in the business, oil prices high (and many expecting to remain so)

Fundamentalist
Thanks for that, putting it to the back of the draw again.

I'm sure that Shell's reported comments over the weekend re $40 oil will have done no harm at all for DNX and indeed the rest of the sector today. I'm still kicking myself for not getting in on these previously!

Gav

i know you are well committed elsewhere in the sector but despite the rises these are still quite lowly valued imho. if as rumoured there are more planned swaps with future african assets for current north sea production then it will bring the forward pe back down close to single figures again.

Hi Fundy,

Agree with what you are saying and am taking another look here. I do like the strategy of swapping more risky assets for producing assets in the NS. Quick look at the last results, they say they want to increase boepd from 18k just now to over 30k by end 06. Looks like there is an excellent mix here of exploration prospects with solid producing assets. Seems to be quite an active drilling program to end 06 with 17 drills planned. Do you have any idea when they plan to drill block 1 in Mauritania and block L5 in Kenya? Yes I am well committed elsewhere in the sector, especially with SIA, but in this current market, I cant really see past the oil sector. Of course though, I am an oil bull. Cant really see oil tanking over the next few years so companies like this should have bundles of cash over the next few years.

Cheers

Gav

Forgot to say, I've got a couple of brokers reports from Canaccord and KBC. They date back to August 04 and March 05 and they both cover a few companies in the sector. Although they are a bit out of date, email me off board if you want me to send them to you. They both cover DNX.

Gav

Like you im also an oil bull currently and cant see any reason for that to change in the coming years. Personally think oil price is likely to remain above $50 for this year, with every chance that it is going to spike up quite soon towards and maybe even through $60.

I have seen the KBC reports and a small warning that i would check the detail in their reports. they have been challenged by a couple of respected posters on advfn (a few do exist) about the accuracy of their asset valuations on DNX, especially the one accompanied by a sell recommendation just after the last set of results and were unable to justify their numbers and comments (they had made an adjustment to an out of date report rather than their previous released report if my memory serves me right)

As for drilling dates i have posted what i think is the last announcement re mauritania - i cant currently find the same for kenya - i think it its early 2006 but i need to check.


From Dana's announcement of the Woodside deal:

Mauritania Block 1

The Petrel-1 well, located in Block 1 offshore Mauritania, is designed to test a large Cretaceous age structural trap with a first quarter 2005 spud date currently being targeted by Dana. Subject to sufficiently encouraging results from the Petrel-1 well, a second well on Block 1, to test the even larger Faucon prospect, is scheduled for later in 2005. Following a separate agreement with Tullow Oil plc, the participating interests in the Block 1 PSC at the time of the Petrel-1 well will be:

Group
Dana 60%
Hardman 18%
Tullow 20%
ROC Oil 2%

Fundy,

Thanks for that. I too agree that oil will stay above $50 for the rest of the year, and that we will see 60+ reasonably soon. Looking past this year, I cant see oil falling back to anywhere near 30's etc. Cheap oil is long gone IMO. I posted a link on the SEY thread to Simmons's last presentation, makes interesting reading.

As to the brokers notes, those taking their advice would be kicking themselves even harder than I am just now, especially with the sell note. I havent really looked too hard into the notes so thanks for the heads up re the accuracy of the asset valuation of DNX. I dont base my trades/investments on brokers notes, as Im sure you dont either, but they are good to read to try to see where they are coming from. A prime example of brokers making mistakes is with SIA. Some brokers have been saying sell for a while now, and indeed, with the last I have, they were talking with regard to well CNV-2X when in fact the last well drilled was CNV-3X! Anyway, I just mentioned the notes in case you didn't have them.

Thanks for the info on Block 1, got a lot more research to do.

Cheers

Gav

Gav

i read the simmons post earlier, very informative.

As for brokers notes, i agree they are worth reading, if only because other people will be following their recommendations, though as far as numbers go i always try to cross reference them back to my own f/cacsts.

That said, its a while since i revisited my figures on Dana, i have been quite happy just to let this one look after itself. Must try and revisit this in the next week or so. Ill also try and dig out some other articles ive got on dana and will post tomorrow

Cheers Fundy, look forward to reading the articles. Simmons's new book will be out soon and is at the top of my shopping list. No doubt it will get plenty of attention in the media, especially in this climate!

Wednesday, 24 November, 2004

Offshore Kenya survey underway for Aussies.

OGTA 3,600 km 2D seismic survey of Blocks L-5 and L-7 offshore Kenya is underway for Woodside and its partners, Brisbane's Global Petroleum and UK-based Dana Petroleum.

The survey covers nine key leads mapped on the basis of the seismic data recorded in 2003.

It is expected to be completed by mid January 2005.

The JV expects the first well will be drilled in the fourth quarter of 2005.
The leads to be investigated by the new seismic are in water depths of 500 to 2,500 metres and range in size up to several tens of square kms with very significant reserves upside potential.

Interests:
Woodside 50% (operator)
Dana 30%
Global 20%

RNS Number:9844F
Dana Petroleum PLC
03 December 2004
PRESS RELEASE

DANA PETROLEUM PLC ("Dana" or "the Company")

Dana Begins Drilling and Seismic Operations Offshore Australia and Kenya

Dana is pleased to report that the Fiddich-1 exploration well has spudded
offshore Western Australia, and that pre-drilling seismic acquisition has begun
offshore northern Kenya.

The Fiddich well is being drilled in exploration permit WA-226-P by the "Sedco
703" semi-submersible rig to test a Permian sandstone prospect with the
potential to contain up to 240 million barrels of oil in place. The licence
operator, Origin Energy, has estimated mid-case reserves potential of the
Fiddich prospect to be approximately 60 million barrels of oil (12 million
barrels net to Dana) with an upside case of around 100 million barrels (20
million barrels net to Dana).


Dana is being free-carried on costs relating to the Fiddich well in accordance
with the terms of the 3-for-1 farm-out deal agreed with Voyager Energy in
February 2004. Under this agreement, Voyager is paying the costs associated
with Dana's remaining 20% interest in the Permit to earn a 10% interest.


Offshore Kenya, the "Polar Duke" seismic survey vessel has commenced acquisition
of a 3,600 km infill 2D seismic survey in Blocks L-5 and L-7. This survey will
build upon and refine the 2003 survey data over the key prospects to allow
exploration well locations to be selected for drilling, currently targeted
towards the end of 2005. Dana is being free-carried on one half of the costs
relating to its 40% interest in Blocks L-5 and L-7 in accordance with the terms
of the 2-for-1 farm-out agreement signed in 2003 with Woodside Energy.

Thursday, 13 January, 2005
Aussies complete offshore Kenya seismic survey

Brisbane, 13 January, OGTWoodside and its partners, Brisbane's Global Petroleum and the UK's Dana Petroleum, expect to have the results of a 2D seismic survey of offshore Kenya Blocks L-5 and L-7 available in the second quarter of this year.

The 3,565 km survey began on the 23rd of November 2004 and was completed earlier this month.

The JV last year said the first well would be drilled in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The leads investigated by the new seismic were in water depths of 500 to 2,500 metres and ranged in size up to several tens of square kms.

Oil & Gas TODAY

02 February 2005
Dana Completes Acquisition of Additional Interest in Melville Area of UK North Sea

The Board of Dana is pleased to announce that the Company has completed a deal
to increase its interest in UK North Sea Block 210/24a to approximately 26.6%,
through transactions with Shell and ExxonMobil. The key feature of this Block is
the 'Melville' exploration prospect which will shortly be tested by the 210/
24a-10 well, which is now scheduled to start drilling later this month.

The Melville well will test a Brent sandstone prospect with the potential to
contain around 110 million barrels of oil-in-place on a most likely basis. The
prospect is located just to the south of the 210/24a-8 well, which was
production flow tested at 4,200 barrels per day of 36 degrees API oil in 1996,
and some 6km to the south of the producing Hudson oil field through which a
Melville discovery is likely to be developed.

Dana is also currently well advanced in the process of increasing its interest
in the Hudson field, to 47.5%, through a previously announced agreement with
Amerada Hess. This Hudson deal will increase Dana's net production by around
3,500 barrels of oil per day and the transaction is on track to be completed
this quarter.

RNS Number:3882J
Dana Petroleum PLC
07 March 2005



For release at 0700 hours 7 March 2005


PRESS RELEASE

DANA PETROLEUM PLC ("Dana" or "the Company")

Dana Boosts 2005 North Sea Drilling Programme


Dana is pleased to report that it has signed an exchange agreement with CNR
International (U.K.) Limited by which Dana will acquire a 24.2% interest in UK
North Sea Block 211/22a, in exchange for a 5% interest in UK North Sea Block 211
/8a and a small balancing cash consideration. Final completion of this
transaction, which is subject to normal regulatory and partner approvals, is
expected to take place in the near future, when Dana will also be appointed
Operator.


The Company is further delighted to announce that it has agreed heads of terms
with its future co-venturer in Block 211/22a, Antrim Resources, to increase
Dana's interest to 79% in the northern and western areas of the block by
drilling an exploration well to test the 'Clachnaben' prospect, just to the east
of Shell's Cormorant oil field.


Dana intends to drill the Clachnaben well as part of its 2005 North Sea drilling
campaign, increasing its total number of planned North Sea exploration and
appraisal wells to six this year. This drilling programme commenced on 5th
March 2005 with the spud of the Melville exploration well in nearby Block 210/
24a.


Commenting on the news, Tom Cross, Dana's Chief Executive, said:


"These two deals position Dana with a significant stake in Block 211/22a,
consistent with our strategy to maximise the Company's drilling upside potential
in the North Sea. Exploration wells at Melville and Clachnaben will build upon
our other 2005 Northern North Sea activity. This includes the acquisition of
an increased interest in the Hudson oil field, which will boost Dana's
production from the end of March, and well recompletion work at the Otter field,
which we expect to add further oil production around mid-year."

Antrim Updates UK Exploration Activities
Friday, March 18, 2005


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Antrim Energy Inc. has entered into a Heads of Agreement with Dana Petroleum Plc whereby Dana will earn a 54.79% working interest in the north and western areas of UK North Sea Block 211/22a in exchange for funding 100% of the cost of an exploration well on the block up to a gross cost of 5,750,000. Antrim will retain a 21% working interest in the prospect (Dana 79%).
Block 211/22a is situated between the producing Cormorant and Dunlin oilfields. Dana intends to drill the Clachnaben prospect in the northwest portion of the block as part of its 2005 North Sea drilling program. It is anticipated that drilling of this prospect could commence as early as mid 2005. Under the Heads of Agreement, Dana will be appointed Operator of this portion of the block. Antrim is expected to be appointed as Operator of the southeast portion of the block upon completion of the transaction. Antrim will hold a 79% working interest in this portion of the block (Dana 21%) which includes the prospective Osprey Ridge area.
Gerry Orbell, Chairman, said We are very pleased to be able to enter into this transaction with Dana. This transaction exposes the shareholders to a near term drilling opportunity in the UK at no further cost to Antrim and at the same time boosting our equity on the prospective Osprey Ridge area.

RNS Number:1690K
Dana Petroleum PLC
24 March 2005

Embargoed until 0700 hrs on 24th March, 2005


PRESS RELEASE

DANA PETROLEUM PLC ("Dana" or "the Company")

Dana Completes Acquisition of Hudson Field Interest

The Board of Dana is pleased to announce the formal completion of the exchange
agreement between Dana Petroleum (E&P) Limited and Amerada Hess Limited, by
which Dana has acquired an additional 28% interest in the Hudson Oil Field in
the UK North Sea, thus increasing Dana's total stake in Hudson to 47.5%. In
exchange, Dana has transferred its wholly owned subsidiary Dana Petroleum
(Indonesia) LLC to Amerada Hess Limited. Dana Petroleum (Indonesia) LLC holds
Dana's 12% interest in the Pangkah PSC area offshore Indonesia as its sole
asset.

Dana is also delighted to report that it has been appointed as Operator of the
Hudson Field, having received all necessary government and partner consents in
this regard.

The Hudson field is currently producing approximately 12,000 barrels of oil per
day. Therefore, Dana's net North Sea oil production has increased by
approximately 3,400 barrels per day as a result of the completion of this deal.

RNS Number:3806K
Dana Petroleum PLC
31 March 2005


DANA PETROLEUM PLC

("Dana", "the Company" or "the Group")


Preliminary Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2004



Dana Petroleum, the independent oil and gas exploration and production company
focused on growth through international exploration and the development of low
risk production from the UK North Sea, reports its preliminary results for 2004.



HIGHLIGHTS



Record Operating Performance



* Average production increased to a record high of 18,608 boepd (2003:
17,270 boepd)

* Turnover rose 27% to #109.5 million (2003: #86.5 million)

* Operating profit climbed 43% to #48.8 million (2003: #34.1 million)

* Net profit and earnings per share increased to #22.4 million and 30.1p
respectively (2003: #19.6 million and 26.5p)

* Net Cash Flow from Operations up to #61.2 million (2003: #52.2
million)

* Gearing eliminated with net cash position of #20.5m at end 2004 (end
2003: net debt of #9.5m)

* Proven and probable reserves increased to 124.8 mmboe at end 2004,
representing 51% of the Group's total technically recoverable hydrocarbon
resources of 243.7 mmboe.