rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

a quiet hooray as seem to be getting the feel back :-)

typical contrary markets clunk in anticipation of good news on the labour front in usa

Thank you Cynic,
I think the situation in Europe is not as bad as it looks. Numbers are not representative of real facts, especially in Italy, and Spain where agricultural activities are high but many employees are not properly registered as employed.

you know that as a fact ahoj? .... i think not! ..... france is certainly in a dreadful mess; NL GDP (i think it was) fell 1% over the last 12 months (or was it just 3 or 6 months?); i certainly don't believe germany is nearly as robust as is put about; how many more eurozone countries would you like to check out

Spanish agriculture contributes 2.3% to national GDP. In Italy, that contribution is only 1.8%. Spanish unemployment on the other hand is 27%; Italy's is 12%.

If you are going to see black market employment in Club Med, it'll most likely be in the tourism sector which lasts only 4 (or 5 months at a pinch) each year.

Cynic, I agree about France, BUT Germany is in robust shape, they export the most to growing markets in the Middle East, India, and China. Their problem is finding skilled workers. So well educated young Greeks who know English are employed there (while they might be still registered as unemployed in their country). Many highly educated Professors from Greece came to the UK to work at lower levels too.

Hilary, You are right the effect is not much, but this is the season with highest activities in agricultural and tourism industries (off course weather permitting!).

ahoj,

Did you see the IMF cut their German 2013 GDP forecast only this week?

Germany's main export partners are France (who are in the doggy doo doo themselves) and the US. The US may be on their way out of recession but, with fiber struggling to go any lower than €1.30, it means all those Porsches and Mercs aren't exactly as cheap as chips right now.

Germany doesn't export much to the middle east, nor to India. They export a reasonable amount to China, but actually have a Chinese balance of trade deficit (ie. they import more Chinese crap for their own consumption than they sell back to the tiddlywinks). The Chinese Yuan is also kinda pegged to the US dollar and that doesn't make export conditions particularly favourable.

i agree with hilary about germany ..... very little of our biz has ever come ex uk, but from a demand point of view, we find europe seriously lags far and middle east and usa, and this has been the case for at least the last 18 monthsb

Up or down this afternoon and next week presumably now all depends on the US non-farm payroll figures?

"A reading above 169k will surely escalate expectations that the Federal Reserve will unwind asset purchases in coming months, while a number sharply below would suggest otherwise. Today’s figure for that reason will dominate headlines, influencing price-action until the Fed’s next policy meeting this month,"

USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are my favourites at the moment.

FRANKFURT--Germany's central bank Friday cut its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy this year and next, tying the nation's fate to whether the euro-zone emerges from recession. "Much will depend on whether the economic situation stabilizes in the euro-area crisis countries," Jens Weidmann, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank said in a statement. In its semi-annual economic projections, the central bank lowered its growth forecast to 0.3% this year from its December estimate of 0.4% expansion, and also revised down its forecast for 2014 growth to 1.5% from 1.9%. Germany has managed ride out the euro-zone crisis while many other European economies have floundered, but weak investment and sagging exports amid recession in some euro-area countries and the slowing global economy caused Germany's economy to contract sharply in the fourth quarter. Germany narrowly escaped recession in the first quarter, when its gross domestic product, a measure of economic growth, increased just 0.1%, on the back of robust private consumption. The Bundesbank's forecasts follow those of the European Commission, which last month lowered its 2013 growth outlook for Germany to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.5%. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund also cut its estimate for German growth in 2013 to "around 0.3%" from 0.6%. Despite the dulled forecasts, the Bundesbank said Germany's economy is slowly picking up again, as other euro-zone economies bottom out and the world economy gains momentum. A solid labor market, wage increases and a general easing of inflation are supporting private consumption in Germany, Mr. Weidmann added. According to the Bundesbank, consumer price inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, is set to accelerate modestly this year to 1.6% from its December forecast of 1.5%. Next year, it will slow to 1.5%, the central bank said.

If Germany was not a part of Europe, their currency, Dutch Mark) would be much higher at levels equate with Euro $2. So, German companies they are the main beneficiaries of the single currency.

Have a read ahoj.
http://tullettprebonresearch.com/2012/12/10/the-gift-that-keeps-on-taking-germany-and-the-euro/

shortie excellent article and comments, the euro "nightmare" is not over by a long way.

The article pretty well demonstrates why there will never be any beneficiary of a single currency, if Germany had exited the Euro back in 2008/9 then maybe it would have been seen today as having crystalised its gains. The same could be said of Greece if it had borrowed heavily as a member and then left devaluing its currency and debt in the process. Neither of these things happened, stability seams to be the buzz word at the moment, but just like trading stabilty doesn't lead to profits it leads to lower risk which is what EZ members strive for.

Anyone else been trading Yen over the last 24 hrs, Christmas has come early I think.

Looks like payrolls were pretty good:
"Bloomberg - Equity futures surged after a Labor Department report showed payrolls rose 175,000 last month after a revised 149,000 increase in April that was smaller than first estimated. The jobless rate climbed from a four-year low as more Americans entered the labor force."

.

Current thoughts from DP of IC:
"Retail sentiment towards European equities is improving from what I can tell, with spread bettors now net long of the FTSE and almost neutral on the DAX. I certainly agree with the view that another decent rally should follow the present shakeout. However, I was taken by surprise by the duration and extent of last summer’s sell-off in equities, and I may be once again this year. This does not mean we are necessarily in for a meltdown, but it is quite possible that we get further erratic downside for a few weeks. The FTSE is now down some 9% inside 13 sessions, while it lost around 13% in 54 days in the spring of 2012.

I look for possible shorts in the FTSE today, and longs in GBPUSD and EURUSD.

The FTSE’s downtrend is much clearer and therefore more shortable than that of the DAX right now. It triggered my sell-advice by dropping through 6350 yesterday, going as low as 6279 thereafter. I reckon we could see 6253 next up. I would be looking for further shorting opportunities here, therefore.

DAY: I’d short another drop through the 13-fourhourly EMA (6337.1)."

Back into the FTSE after a while on the sidelines at 6312, hopefully for a sustained long