Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Dilbert,

The OBR pre-referendum forecast of March 2016 assumed that the UK would vote to remain. It actually forecast very modest growth of around 2% for 2016, 2017 and 2018 compared to the actual growth already witnessed in 2014 (3.1%) and 2015 (2.3%). I do understand what you're saying, but there is nothing to suggest that the OBR 2016 forecast was overly optimistic, although the truth is that we'll never know.

What is interesting, however, is that growth forecasts were also made for the EZ for 2016, 2017 and 2018, and history has shown that the EZ beat those forecasts in each of the three years.

If anything therefore, there's an argument to be made that the OBR 2016 forecasts were overly pessimistic. You might be even worse off than the Resulotion study suggests!

In addition, Dilbert, the Resolution study pinpointed higher than expected inflation as a primary cause. Every Brexiter bangs on about how exporters will benefit from weaker sterling after Brexit whilst conveniently neglecting to mention the fact that the UK has run a massive trade deficit in goods every month since I was a little girl.

Immediately before the referendum, sterling was stable against the euro at around 1.35. In the days after the referendum if fell around 10%, and now sits between 1.10 and 1.15. Sorry, but seeing as you depend upon the EU for so much produce, it's a no-brainer that Brexit-related inflation is going to hit the Great British public hard in their pockets.

Yep!

Is it not great for exports having the GBP at around 1.10/1.15 - keeping the factorties busy, plenty of jobs, increasing pay packets - less holidays in the EU, buying products from Non-EU areas on better terms, dropping house prices as the UK limits the influx of residents. Longer hotter summers due to climate change, it cannot get much better can it. :-)

and uk has now got used to that, for the referendum was 2 years ago

it could justifiably be argued that € is over-valued, and certainly the tourist industries in spain and portugal (and other countries) have been hit hard, for the brits are/were their major clients

Hils , those forecasts prove nothing except maybe they were overly optimistic and overly pessimistic for the UK. End of the day they were forecasts and wrong in both cases which just goes to show the value of forecasts.

EUR at 1.35 was ridiculous , was as high as 1.40 at one point I think and without even looking at the charts I can tell you that 1.13 is much nearer the average rate since the EUR was introduced. 1.35 was never going to be sustained in the long run.

Dilbert,

You'd be surprised. As part of strategy backtesting, we access and load 1-minute history data going back to 1st January 1970. In the case of EUR/GBP (note the EUR is the first cross currency), that data is obtained by weighting the respective euro component currency (eg. DM, FFr, etc) rates pre-1999 when the euro was formed.

The chart data suggests a 49 year EUR/GBP high of around 0.98 (the inverse low is 1.02) and a low of around 0.57 (inverse high is 1.75). The long term average is about 0.75 (inverse 1.33), so no, GBP/EUR at 1.35 pre-referendum is just a reflection of the long term average and not ridiculous at all.

very interesting hilary, but what is the average dating back to just say 2010 to 2017 and then 2017 to date and 2010 to date

You can easily check those averages yourself, Cyners. But they're far too short term to have any meaning - inadequate data sampling (curve fitting) is why 99% of systems fail.

for your purposes maybe too short term
however, my gut feel is that 2010/2017 would be around 1.25 and post referendum about 1.18

Trimble's backstop challenge begins.

From todays C&C

The German data office originally thought the country had squeaked by with a flicker of growth in the fourth quarter, but City analysts say it will be forced to revise its figures after a blizzard of dire figures. German GDP contracted 0.8pc in the third quarter.

The EU’s maladministration watchdog has accused the European Commission of ignoring its own rules when it appointed its most senior official last year.
The European Ombudsman criticised the lightning quick double promotion of Martin Selmayr, a close ally of Jean-Claude Juncker, as secretary general of the commission last year.
Mr Selmayr was promoted to deputy secretary-general of the commission at a February 21 meeting of the EU commissioners. Shortly afterwards, the secretary-general Alexander Italianer announced his retirement.
Mr Juncker, the president of the commission, promptly proposed the divisive Mr Selmayr take on the role, leaving shell-shocked commissioners to rubber stamp Mr Selmayr's appointment.

Well, who would have thought that the EU Commission was an autocracy? The question is what are they going to do about it? Nada. Anyone who watched BBC2 on how a small group negotiated a deal with Turkey on immigrants will realise that there is only one fuhrer in the EU, the rest of the "leaders" are there for decoration.

Who would have thought?

Britain could lead the world into a new era of democracy and free trade, using the Brexit revolt against the establishment as a springboard to making the global order more cooperative, accountable and prosperous, according to the Governor of the Bank of England.
The current system of global trade has key flaws including wealth and income inequality, a lack of democracy and trust, and serious financial imbalances, Mark Carney warned on Tuesday.
However, in a sharp departure from the Governor's "project fear" warnings of the past three years, Mr Carney said Brexit has the potential to upend these issues and provide the opportunity to create a new way of running the world.

What with these good for nothing "Con"artists in Government? You are obviously clearly drunk yet again to even dream that to be true. 😂😂😂

Calling you a moron would be an insult to all the thickos out there.

More personal abuse from the board’s personal abuser.

Wtf has Caney been smoking , I want some.

Biggest Brexit U turn I've seen so far.

I get a whiff of manipulation. Hmmmm