rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

ahoj,

Did you see the IMF cut their German 2013 GDP forecast only this week?

Germany's main export partners are France (who are in the doggy doo doo themselves) and the US. The US may be on their way out of recession but, with fiber struggling to go any lower than €1.30, it means all those Porsches and Mercs aren't exactly as cheap as chips right now.

Germany doesn't export much to the middle east, nor to India. They export a reasonable amount to China, but actually have a Chinese balance of trade deficit (ie. they import more Chinese crap for their own consumption than they sell back to the tiddlywinks). The Chinese Yuan is also kinda pegged to the US dollar and that doesn't make export conditions particularly favourable.

i agree with hilary about germany ..... very little of our biz has ever come ex uk, but from a demand point of view, we find europe seriously lags far and middle east and usa, and this has been the case for at least the last 18 monthsb

Up or down this afternoon and next week presumably now all depends on the US non-farm payroll figures?

"A reading above 169k will surely escalate expectations that the Federal Reserve will unwind asset purchases in coming months, while a number sharply below would suggest otherwise. Today’s figure for that reason will dominate headlines, influencing price-action until the Fed’s next policy meeting this month,"

USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are my favourites at the moment.

FRANKFURT--Germany's central bank Friday cut its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy this year and next, tying the nation's fate to whether the euro-zone emerges from recession. "Much will depend on whether the economic situation stabilizes in the euro-area crisis countries," Jens Weidmann, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank said in a statement. In its semi-annual economic projections, the central bank lowered its growth forecast to 0.3% this year from its December estimate of 0.4% expansion, and also revised down its forecast for 2014 growth to 1.5% from 1.9%. Germany has managed ride out the euro-zone crisis while many other European economies have floundered, but weak investment and sagging exports amid recession in some euro-area countries and the slowing global economy caused Germany's economy to contract sharply in the fourth quarter. Germany narrowly escaped recession in the first quarter, when its gross domestic product, a measure of economic growth, increased just 0.1%, on the back of robust private consumption. The Bundesbank's forecasts follow those of the European Commission, which last month lowered its 2013 growth outlook for Germany to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.5%. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund also cut its estimate for German growth in 2013 to "around 0.3%" from 0.6%. Despite the dulled forecasts, the Bundesbank said Germany's economy is slowly picking up again, as other euro-zone economies bottom out and the world economy gains momentum. A solid labor market, wage increases and a general easing of inflation are supporting private consumption in Germany, Mr. Weidmann added. According to the Bundesbank, consumer price inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, is set to accelerate modestly this year to 1.6% from its December forecast of 1.5%. Next year, it will slow to 1.5%, the central bank said.

If Germany was not a part of Europe, their currency, Dutch Mark) would be much higher at levels equate with Euro $2. So, German companies they are the main beneficiaries of the single currency.

Have a read ahoj.
http://tullettprebonresearch.com/2012/12/10/the-gift-that-keeps-on-taking-germany-and-the-euro/

shortie excellent article and comments, the euro "nightmare" is not over by a long way.

The article pretty well demonstrates why there will never be any beneficiary of a single currency, if Germany had exited the Euro back in 2008/9 then maybe it would have been seen today as having crystalised its gains. The same could be said of Greece if it had borrowed heavily as a member and then left devaluing its currency and debt in the process. Neither of these things happened, stability seams to be the buzz word at the moment, but just like trading stabilty doesn't lead to profits it leads to lower risk which is what EZ members strive for.

Anyone else been trading Yen over the last 24 hrs, Christmas has come early I think.

Looks like payrolls were pretty good:
"Bloomberg - Equity futures surged after a Labor Department report showed payrolls rose 175,000 last month after a revised 149,000 increase in April that was smaller than first estimated. The jobless rate climbed from a four-year low as more Americans entered the labor force."

.

Current thoughts from DP of IC:
"Retail sentiment towards European equities is improving from what I can tell, with spread bettors now net long of the FTSE and almost neutral on the DAX. I certainly agree with the view that another decent rally should follow the present shakeout. However, I was taken by surprise by the duration and extent of last summer’s sell-off in equities, and I may be once again this year. This does not mean we are necessarily in for a meltdown, but it is quite possible that we get further erratic downside for a few weeks. The FTSE is now down some 9% inside 13 sessions, while it lost around 13% in 54 days in the spring of 2012.

I look for possible shorts in the FTSE today, and longs in GBPUSD and EURUSD.

The FTSE’s downtrend is much clearer and therefore more shortable than that of the DAX right now. It triggered my sell-advice by dropping through 6350 yesterday, going as low as 6279 thereafter. I reckon we could see 6253 next up. I would be looking for further shorting opportunities here, therefore.

DAY: I’d short another drop through the 13-fourhourly EMA (6337.1)."

Back into the FTSE after a while on the sidelines at 6312, hopefully for a sustained long

Errrm. BoJ yesterday and Kuroda???

I have not been doing my homework for a while - just back from a holiday - why the sudden 100 pt drop in wall st and 50 drop on FTSE.

I know - I know - I should have checked before I put my long on - impetuous me !!

bhunt,

Seriously, you need to Google news for BoJ and Kuroda.

In a nutshell, equity markets have been rising since the back end of last year because Japan has been printing money big time. In their recent statements going back over the last month or so, their rhetoric has changed, and the intimation is that they're trying to dampen the moves (possibly because their trade partners are getting a bit p!ssed off with them). Yesterday, they came up with nothing new, and the market is reacting accordingly.

Earlier Today :-

Japan's Nikkei slips but off day's low

(Reuters) - The Nikkei average slipped 0.2 percent on Wednesday, extending the previous session's decline on disappointment that the Bank of Japan offered no fresh measures to quell bond market volatility, which was sparked by its massive stimulus program in April.

The Nikkei .N225 ended 28.30 points lower at 13,289.32 after trading as low as 12,994.08. The index trimmed losses in the afternoon, with traders suspecting the central bank was buying exchange-traded funds to support the market.

The broader Topix .TOPX index eased 0.4 percent to 1,096.54.

Yesterday :-

Asian shares hit 2013 lows; Nikkei slips as BOJ disappoints

TOKYO | Tue Jun 11, 2013 7:33am BST
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell against the yen and Japanese stocks sagged after the Bank of Japan held off from taking fresh steps to curb bond market volatility, while Asian shares hit 2013 lows amid worries over slowing growth in China and continued uncertainty on how long the U.S. stimulus will remain in place.

European stock markets are likely to follow suit, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX will open down 0.4 percent. A 0.1 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also pointed to a cautious Wall Street start.

Kuroda’s April-Was-Enough Message Faces Markets Wanting More

From a technical viewpoint, USD/JPY has been making lower highs and lower lows on the hourly charts since the end of May. It's currently approaching the last low formed on 7th June and, if that goes, you've got to go back to the beginning of April for any meaningful support.

6000 looming, sold in May?