Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

15 May Numis 175.00 Hold
15 May Investec 180.00 Hold

--------------------------------------------
I have only traded in and out here , see how today pans out may get back in .

Braclays view:
"Thomas Cook reported an H1 14 Underlying EBIT loss of £187m, bang in line with our estimate of £187m. 60% of the summer programme is sold (vs. 60% last year) and the company says this is in-line. However, the negative is that volumes in the UK have fallen to -1% (vs. +3% at in March) ‘due to a reduction in capacity’ (note Tui Travel summer volumes were -3% but against a stronger comp) and the late timing of Easter (customers book summer holidays after Easter holidays). Positively Winter 2014/15 bookings are 11% higher with ASP +2% (enhanced product range). All other divisions are trading in line. Positively, the company has increased guidance for Wave 1 cost reductions in FY14 which ‘represents a further £20m of cost out in FY14 at minimal extra cost’. This £20m is potentially worth 6% to FY14 EBIT but maybe offset by some softness in the UK. Wave 2 cost savings will be ‘over £400m’ and the benefits will start in FY16 albeit the company guides to a £21m cost in FY15 but then a £25m increase in EBIT in FY16 based on company guidance in the statement.’ Ultimately on current estimates we view Thomas Cook as inexpensive: FY15 P/E of 10.5x falling to 8.1x but perhaps the market may have hoped for greater upgrades today. Longer-term, Wave 2 cost-out implies Group margins rising well over 6% (vs. 2.8% in FY13) which is also why we remain positive. Our 230p PT implies 28% upside and we reiterate our Overweight rating."

Utter madness these markets at the moment. TCG down 22.5p on that RNS = Bonkers. It's one of many shares which have been hammered over the last few months following a positive/good trading statement or results. Shorters must be rubbing their hands with some glee. Unfortunately I have never shorted shares! I wonder which company is next in line to get the treatment.

the one you decide to buy of course :-)

This looks oversold ,shall see how it opens in the morning , i agree utter madness but just like shorters rubbing their hands it's often an opportunity to go long..

Getting hammered again today and Tui going down with it..

Bought back in ..

good lad ... i dithered and didn't though i hold already, and am glad to see that, having been walloped again earlier, it is now blue

Can you go and book a very expensive holiday cynic then we could be back in the high 170's before you even get packed ...

TCG aren't into posh hols :-)

Bomb explosions in Kenya and holidaymakers evacuated.

Cynic said they don't posh holidays ,only Bognor and Clacton ..

bugger bognor!
if you think kenya's posh, go to nairobi .... it's vile and the country's one of the most corrupt in the world

According to the BBC, TCG have stopped selling holiday packages to certain parts of Kenya until October. The 'Bomb Explosions' turned out to be a couple of the usual, daily grenades thrown around a suburb of Mombassa, but nevertheless, there is a high risk to European travellers in Kenya generally, from threats attributed to Al Shabaab.
"The FCO's warning against non-essential travel covered the Mombasa Island area, Kiwayu and coastal areas north of Pate Island, the Garissa district, the Eastleigh area of Nairobi and the slum areas of the Kenyan capital."

Presumably a statement from Harriet Green advising the probable impact on revenue/profit would help the sp recover pretty quickly. Can't imagine she will allow things to slide too far without comment.

depends whether or not she thinks the effect material (downwards)
if not, why should she interfere with the market?

I agree with that, but if the market reaction is going to be worse than the reality, I would imagine HG would reassure investors. I'm not really sure how popular east coast Kenya is as a destination, but presumably most trips are during our winter, so maybe the impact will be minimal.

19 May 2014


Thomas Cook Group plc

Thomas Cook Group plc (the "Company") announces that Harriet Green, Chief Executive Officer, and Martine Verluyten, Non-Executive Director, have purchased shares of €0.01 each in the Company as further detailed in the table below:

Director
Date of Purchase and Notification
Number of Shares acquired
Average Price per Share
Percentage of issued share class acquired
Total holding of Shares following this acquisition
Total percentage of Shares held following acquisition
Harriet Green
19 May 2014
32,700
154.17p
0.002%
732,700
0.050%
Martine Verluyten
19 May 2014
25,000
153.26p
0.002%
165,000
0.011%
==================

Well at least the boss is buying shares at this level ..

Green tells Cameron to shake up 'antiquated' school term system


By Phil Davies | 19 May 2014 at 08.32 GMT




Thomas Cook chief executive Harriet Green has backed calls for a shake-up in what she describes as the “antiquated” school holiday system.

Green was given a role on prime minister David Cameron’s business advisory council and has raised the issue with him after he recently criticised travel companies for charging families more during school holidays.

She believes that the education system is to blame.

“The school year is very antiquated and based on outdated ideas that the children need to help to bring in the harvest,” Green said.

“I would change the construct of the school year and have three equal holidays. It would be in everyone’s interests – not least working families like my own – that we had staggered times and different slots for families to go away.

“It does not work in offices either if everyone is scrabbling for exactly the same time. At the moment everyone pushes for August. I have shared my views [with David Cameron] on this,” she told the Times on Saturday.

Fining families who take their children out of school during term-time is “slightly judicious administration, personally it doesn’t feel right to me”.

In a wide-ranging interview, Green is quoted as describing herself as “a landa” - a cross between a lion and a panda.

“Sometimes I am a real lion, I can roar, make things happen, I can change the course through will, energy and just being incredibly aggressive and assertive. But I can also be a big panda. If a company is sick, you have to be gentler – big eyes, big hugs.”

Discussing the financial turnaround of the ailing business she took on, Green said: “Thomas Cook needed to appeal to a new generation, it was ageing with its customers”.

The day on which she was appointed the share price dropped to 14p. “It was pretty ignominious. I wasn’t from travel, but in fact it helped that I came from the outside.”

Green also alluded to a future for travel agents despite Cook’s well-documented e-commerce drive.

A survey of customers found that although 93% used the internet to research a holiday, 66% wanted to talk to someone first.

“We modernised the web but we also saw that we needed to retain the one-on-one aspect with trust, assurance and personal knowledge,” Green added.

Telegraph City Diary...

Shares in Thomas Cook may have tumbled 16pc in recent days, but the executive board are betting this is only a temporary dip.

Chief Harriet Green has led a show of confidence by buying over £50,000 of stock in the tour operator this week, followed by group CFO Michael Healy, who increased his stake by almost £30,000, and non-execs Carl Symon and Martine Verluyten, who spent £19,396 and £38,315 respectively.

Behind the scenes, Diary is told a further “six or seven” more lowly directors have piled in too, following last week’s improved half-year results.
Diary hopes the board’s “great faith” in Green’s turnaround strategy pays dividends.