Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

From Hardman:

Mauritania: Block 1: Faucon-1 Exploration Well The 'Stena Tay' drilling rig has begun drilling the Faucon-1 exploration well in Block 1. The 13-3/8' casing was set at a depth of 1,897 metres. As at midnight on the 28 November the well was drilling ahead and had reached a depth of 1,915 metres. Faucon-1 is located in 1,164 metres of water in Block 1. The reservoir target is a Cretaceous canyon complex sealed against a salt diapir, with a planned total depth of 4,200 metres.
Equities in Block 1 are: Dana Petroleum (E&P) Ltd (Operator) 60.0% Hardman Petroleum (Mauritania) Pty Ltd 18.0% Tullow Oil 20.0% ROC Oil (Mauritania) Company 2.0% All reported depths (except water depth) are referenced to the rig rotary table (RT). Hydrocarbon shows will be only be reported after all required logs have been run and evaluated, although Hardman will release weekly updates on the exploration drilling campaign. Times and dates refer to GMT (Mauritania time), 8 hours behind Western Standard Time, Perth.

Gordon Brown has increased tax take on new fields from 40% to 50%, share price starting to be hit, though not as badly as VPC which is down 7% since Brown started speaking

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/ria/ns-oiltax-changes.pdf

http://www.politics.co.uk/press-releases/ukooa-response-pre-budget-report-$15107115.htm

Cheers for the links Fundy, good article the last one. Missed the muppets speech today but no surprise really that he couldn't keep his greedy little hands to himself. Seems that VPC took a much greater hit than we did today from looking at stockwatch.

Article in the FT http://news.ft.com/cms/s/209a08ee-65bc-11da-8f40-0000779e2340.html

Gav

I sold out at the end of last week as just couldnt trust him. Was expecting us to be marked down more and would expect a markdown in the morning except oil price strong across the pond tonight. Will wait for the price to settle over the next day or two before re-entering (knowing my luck drilling results will come out in the morning!)

Tried to short VPC on the news but wasnt any stock available :-(

Fundy,

Still in here, but totally understand your reasons for selling before the muppet's speech. After all, who trusts politicians to do the right thing! Tomorrow might be a bit volatile price wise and perhaps everyone's favourite oil analyst Alves will have something to say on the back of todays news. Does anyone still listen to him though, or did they ever!! :-))

Pity you never got your short away on VPC, looks like it would have been a cracking intra-day one. Perhaps tomorrow you will get the chance!

And Faucon hits while im out - no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Dana Petroleum PLC
06 December 2005





DANA PETROLEUM PLC
('Dana' or 'the Company')

Faucon-1 Well Discovery

Dana Petroleum is pleased to announce that the Faucon-1 exploration well,
currently being drilled in Block 1 offshore Mauritania, has encountered
hydrocarbon bearing sandstones within the main Cretaceous age target horizon.
Drilling has been temporarily suspended at 3,536 m while a full suite of
wireline logs, formation pressures, fluid samples and core samples are obtained.
Thereafter, it is the intention to deepen the well by up to a further 700 m in
order to fully explore the Cretaceous section. A further announcement will be
made in due course, regarding hydrocarbon type encountered and the likely size
of the discovery, once all the data gathered from the well has been recovered
and fully evaluated.

Yesss :-))))))))))

Sorry you weren't in Fundy. For once I read it right. Gordon Brown's "capricious" behaviour was already in the price.

It is anybody's guess as to how far the price will continue north pending figures for the actual size of the discovery. It may still be right to buy now with a view to selling on actual news.

I'm holding on. This is going to cause the majors to go and weigh their piggy banks. IMHO the general Mauritanian exploration has been down-played by those who are not represented there. If this turns out to have size, they can't afford not to get involved.

Edward

well done

not sure GB was in the price as VPC was hit 7% on the news, just i think there were people happy to mop up any sales yesterday!!!

Faucon has been estimated at potentially 1 bn barrels and with further drilling news here and Clachnaben (i think thats how its spelt) to come plenty more to come on the SP especially if anyone decides to run their sliderule over Dana

Have started to rebuild my position this am (though hard as cant get a decent order filled!)


Note to self - dont mess around with good solid long term holdings!!!

This news will take weeks to be fully priced in Fundy so plenty of time to get back in.

Dil

Indeed - to be honest this is only an initial announcement, the announcement that the field is commercially viable will see it fly

I hate these solid performing companies - must take a look at some of the real growth stocks like YOO lol

Looking gooooood again I agree fund it does get boring going up all the time. A little tip for you cct.

Well spotted boys, suppose the only chance of a little pull back ( to let people In ) Is them having a lack of stock?

stan
Wasn't really spotted me and fund have been in since 200p some think days.

Just checked and only able to buy 1500 max. online.

Anyone know what It's like when things are quieter In this stock please ( max. able to buy that Is)?

I'm not desperate so won't be using the phone.

Stan, Have a look aTLW , same field but not reacting with same enthusiasm. Narrow spread and MS seems OK. Less volatile than DNX over last few months.

Thanks Fred, I'll have a dig.

Stan

online limits are rarely more than 5000, though if you put a limit order in you should get filled quite quickly (i have done on several occasions including today)

Thanks Fundi I've noted that for future reference.