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ASOS: BUY AT LOW PRICE!!!! (ASC)     

wilco99 - 12 Sep 2003 15:52

ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=ASC&Si

stockdog - 12 Mar 2005 17:17 - 1260 of 5941

Can you translate please

ROFbT - I'm sure I've never done that!
IMOH - in my own home?
IMOC - in my other cottage?
Why does Honey fancy the Baker?

Perhaps IEO is appropriate.

:))

SD

moneyplus - 12 Mar 2005 17:51 - 1261 of 5941

I agree with the potential and although not in profit I felt confident enough to average on Friday and take advantage of the low and I hope temporary price. Eric pass on my good wishes to Mary-I have every sympathy with her! As you say hubs come in handy and mine is doing his best!! cheers MP

andysmith - 13 Mar 2005 14:46 - 1262 of 5941

Had ASC on watch since last Autumn, missed the drop for no reason back below 50p as on hols and thn it flew and I missed it. Didn't buy as IMO PE ratio for 2004 wasn't justfied to take sp to 100p as some suggested and my concern was rapid growth keeping up with demand. Now we have a fall and I sense a buying opportunity as the business model is still sound, plans are in place to sort out warehousing issues and there should be further growth this year. Questions therefore are what do you believe support level to be? What is forecast PE for 2005? My own question then is buy now is wait until warehousing in place??

stockdog - 13 Mar 2005 15:25 - 1263 of 5941

Consensus forecast is as follows:-

Year Ending
EPS
P/E
PEG
EPS Growth
Dividend
Dividend Yield

31-03-2005
1.85p
31.08
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.00%

31-03-2006
3.10p
18.55
0.27
+67.57%
n/a
0.00%

31-03-2007
4.10p
14.02
0.43
+32.26%

So PE reducing from 31 to 14 by 2007 with PEG at 0.43.

I think a good deal of bad sentiment is currentl in the price that will not be lifted until new warehouse announced as successfully operational together with final accounts in probably June 2005 - so patience until then, possibly further dips on sentiment or boredom. But is seems to have found its level of support for now. After July up to 1.00 by Xmas IMO (Eric says earlier - I'm hapopy for him to be right!).

SD

EWRobson - 13 Mar 2005 19:17 - 1264 of 5941

andy, stockdog

I think sd figures are out of date. The recent profit warning for year to 31.3.05 gives expected figure of 1.1m. Reasonable to take the view that this is a blip and earnings for the following year will be back on track with the following year being extremely cautious - must have hit the US market by then, for instance and/or the digital TV market.

I think sd's figures are also based on a higher sp. Present cap. is about 41m so a pbt of 4.1m is a pe of 10, not 14.

Bit of a recovery on Friday. A head and shoulders clearly forming and there would appear to be a support level at around 54p. This might be tested again given that evil is still advising the share to be shorted. If it holds until the end of March there could be some recovery in anticipation of positive news in an early April trading statement. My own stance is 'cautiously optimistic': the price will move ahead either on positive trading news or the shorting positions being closed - most likely a combination. There still remains the warehousing risk. They have got a new guy in place however to handle these logistical issues; they are back to one warehouse so the systems problems will be in the past. On the other hand, they may well want to see the warehouse operational before going ahead with new ionitiatives. The hitwise figures (post 1224) have been very good but are fading a little and these initiatives may be needed before trading is really back on track.

On balance I am 50/50 re saying invest now or wait for the warehouse. That probably implies investing 50% now and waiting with the rest until a May/June RNS that puts the warehouse issues in the past. Personally, I have a good stake, mainly bought in the 60s, topped up recently at 60p. SEO and YOO, in particular (with positive expectations also for CFP, GMC, BGT and NML), are priorities for an early-April breakthrough so I am resting the ASC position at present.

Eric

EWRobson - 13 Mar 2005 20:48 - 1265 of 5941

sd

Forgot to mention that, in responseto Jeremy Lacey's e-mail, I also raised DEMG and, in particular, why the negative comments on their products was not substantiated. Hopefully, there might be a response tomorrow, although I think that you said you had been shaken out anyway. I have found that Shares is responsive to reasoned comment and I think we do a service by raising such issues (rather than just gnawing our bone in private). By the way, have just put the deposit down on a West Highland bitch as a friend for Honey the Labrador and with theintention of breeding from her in a couple of years. Any ideas for a suitable name? I though an old dog might be the best creature to ask!

Eric

andysmith - 13 Mar 2005 20:49 - 1266 of 5941

Thanks sd and eric, sort of confirmed my thoughts. I don't want to buy now only to see sub 50p around the corner, i'd rather wait and buy with confidence.
I am comparing this slightly to IDS where I recently sold 40% of my holding at 150% profit leaving a reasonable holding still in tact that are FREEBIES.
In fact when ASC 55p and IDS 80p last summer I chose IDS which at that time has turned out to have been the right decision. Pity I didn't see ASC at 9p though!!
IDS had huge problems and sp plunged to below 50p but since then have turned things around, made 4m profit last year and has sp 240p at PE 27ish.
In a similar market that means ASC would really have to motor on from this set-back and aim towards 2m PBT for the sp to go to 100p?, but you know what the females are like with their clothes shopping!!! On balance I may sit out and watch for a while but any dips below 50p and I'll be in.

stockdog - 13 Mar 2005 21:22 - 1267 of 5941

Eric, I think your pbt PE of 10 equates to my profit after tax PE of 14 at 30% tax, n'est-ce pas? Otherwise agree pretty much with your assessment. should be a TA at end of year April-ish and then the finals which I would guess will also refer to the warehouse as being up and running with a good strong positive outlook for the next year.

Andysmith - it's a common dilemma, buy half your ideal holding now whilst it's a bit gloomy and be prepared to average down on any residual bad news to come, or wait for definitive strike northwards as a buy signal all in one go. The former is more profitable, but obviously more risky - risk v. reward. I'd say the SP has shown some solid resilience recently against some bad news and bad press at its current level and would not expect it to dip much from here. But what do I know?

I'm in at an average of 55.34p. I only discovered ASC in September, so first got in at 52.74. So I am definitely second phase on this one expecting a) a good run up to 100% profit plus over the next several months to a year, and b) a dividend (call me old fashioned!) - I can quite see myself holding this stock for several years - cf Sainsbury as was, Tesco as is. It's always going to be there, subject to mistakes or bad management or failing to keep a step ahead of fashion.

Eric, be warned Mary will not be pleased when the West Highland bitch puts a deposit down on the carpet. It's an old trick we dogs use to measure how much we're really loved. I trust her recovery progresses and all is well. Only name I can think of for a northerner is Bosley off hand, but you might have a lot of explaining to do with that one. Perhaps it had better be McBosley anyway.

I watch DEMG with interest between now and the results on Tuesday - I might even yet be vindicated, but most probably will see it sail away out of reach with me stranded on the jetty.

je vous souhais tous une bonne nuit

SD

EWRobson - 15 Mar 2005 19:07 - 1268 of 5941

Reply from Jeremy Lacey and my e-mail which triggered it (credit to Stockdog). It seems eminently reasonable.

Eric

Many thanks for the comment. I guess we can only say what we think and at the end of the day it's up to the reader to decide what he believes he should to do. I'm not so sure people accept that the views of individual journalists differ, by the way - certainly we've had criticism in the past over this.
If some statements look as though they need fleshing out, you have to bear in mind that all publications are limited by space considerations - the main Plays are pretty comprehensive, the updates less so. The same thing applies to analysts' reports by the way - I look at 60-70 of these a day: some are a sentence and others are a a thousand words long, but they all come down to buy, sell or hold.
Another point is that a hold or sell is not always totally negative - sometimes it just means a share has had a good run and it's time to take the profit or pause for breath. Our Plays are written with a medium-term perspective, so it's quite possible we'll come back with a buy later if we think it's right.

best regards,

Jeremy

_
Jeremy

Thanks for your prompt reply. Yes, the last piece I see by JM was the comment re interims on 9th December. The more detailed coverage was 21st October. I think I probably confused a piece by lemminginvestor on the January trading statement. Senior moments are becoming more regular!

Thanks for referring the matter to John. I think readers understand that the views expressed about particular shares are the views of the individual journalist so its no skin off anyone's nose if two differ. I wonder, though, whether some comments on Plays Update are not a little trite. In the last issue the comment on Deltex appears somewhat damning compared with the last trading statement. The comment I am questioning is: "Deltex hopes to clinch sales of its cardiac monitoring products to NHS hospitals but there are plenty of competing devices which seem to have brighter prospects." We will know on Tuesday whether this is to be substantiated. But even if it is, the comment is bald and needs to be fleshed out: which products and on what basis is the comparison being made and by whom? We all know medical products companies that are affected by NHS delays, e.g. MLS and DMW, perhaps even HCEG. However, once the breakthrough is made with initial NHS contracts it can become a gravy train. One particular bb contributor was frightened out of his holding by this comment and I only hope it was well founded.
Eric

Stockdog: I remain of the view that the sell advice for DEMG was ill-advised. The significant factor in the results seems to be that they believe that they have enough cash to achieve a positive cashflow. If this is true and they start to get the NHS contracts the shares are cheap. EWR

stockdog - 15 Mar 2005 21:39 - 1269 of 5941

Well, after a 5am start today, I set a buy limit of 15.5p and went off to meetings for the rest of the day (not to mention a light luncheon with two good business firends over a very nice bottle of reserva tempranillo at an excellent Spanish restaurant in Exmouth Market (ECI, not down in Devon) finishing up with my daughter's violin concert followed by singing Kumbaya accompanied by my guitar to a very bemused bunch of Brownies (I was invited by Brown Owl, it's OK).

Anyway, DEMG wasn't playing ball - started off sliding gracefully downwards, but got stuck about a third the way down - a bit like my Stannar stairlift.

The cheapest offer all day was 18.25p so I did not buy, but there is tomorrow and I feel it may well drfit downwards after the excitement of the results passes, especially as they have made no discewrnable progress since January's TA. I rate them a buy still on fundamentals, but am still cheesed off I sold at the 15 minute rock bottom of all time - great timing. Puts a mild dent in what was a very rosy looking perfomance so far this year.

I'd buy in again at 18 feeling honour was mollified if not satisfied. We'll see.

ASC seems to have remained resilient today - didn't ditch that at least.

Ready for bed - dog tired.

SD

EWRobson - 15 Mar 2005 22:32 - 1270 of 5941

At least a dog has no problems sleeping - particularly an old dog! If its any consolation, despite a much better year so far, I have got quite badly wrong: (a) the sale of NLR far too soon; (b) topping up GMC at far too high, pretty well the peak; (c) accepting the one lead that blue index gave me. Pretty confortable with the quite significant position I build in ASC in the 60s; I have bought again on my wife's account at 60p - I don't see buying at the bottom and selling at the top a reasonable expectation without a level of prescience, soothsaying, insider knowledge or related characteristics. Hope you did get some walkies to clear your head and it wasn't an NWT day! lol!

Eric

jlacey - 18 Mar 2005 10:56 - 1271 of 5941

Eric,

Just noticed your remark that 'I expect that Shares give the plays review section to a trainee to learn the job'. Chance would be a fine thing! If we had trainees I wouldn't have to make my own coffee.

Nopeanyone involved in our Plays has been around in this business for years, probably longer than most of the people writing research notes in the City. And when you look at the average performance of our tips, they're doing pretty well!

cheers, Jeremy

stockdog - 18 Mar 2005 12:41 - 1272 of 5941

I love a man who listens to the readers, but who's watching him?

A taste of things to come - how touching!

from the Sixth Sense

lol :)

SD

marketmaker - 18 Mar 2005 14:03 - 1273 of 5941

Retail Week Awards 2005 (Thu 17 Mar 2005)

Rising Star of the Year - Sponsored by Apax Partners

WINNER: ASOS.com

http://www.retailweekawards.co.uk/past_winners.html
http://www.retailweekawards.co.uk/winners.html

attachment.php?s=&postid=166271

stockdog - 18 Mar 2005 18:10 - 1274 of 5941

winners.html
does this help, or did I make a dog's dinner of putting in the lkin?

SD

stockdog - 18 Mar 2005 18:10 - 1275 of 5941

http://www.retailweekawards.co.uk/winners.html

stockdog - 18 Mar 2005 18:10 - 1276 of 5941

got it - woof, woof

SD

stockdog - 18 Mar 2005 18:12 - 1277 of 5941

however, page cannot be found!!

back to dog's dinner theory.

deancroft - 18 Mar 2005 20:05 - 1278 of 5941

SD just a bit too much HTML code in the browser address line. Delete the last letter with the paretheses when the URL appears in your browser. Your link does work otherwise.http://www.retailweekawards.co.uk/winners.html

tau - 25 Mar 2005 01:26 - 1279 of 5941

could it be assumed that the four separate 25k sells today are those of shorters? These constituted mostly all of todays negative trading and despite only a flurry of small buyers had little of the desired effect seen in the past week. may be prevailing north again after easter.
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