ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Eric, Back from snowy,cold , foggy at times spain, with bronchitis. whats been hapening to our favorite share??? Another duplicate magazine winging it way to you if i can find your address. SD

Welcome home SEADOG; just back myself from Cornwall; unfortunately in a hired car as the clutch went on mine just this side of Plymouth. The other sad event was a double whammie: my ball was plugges at the very top of a bunker in an unplayable ie when a call came from blue index requiring me to get back into credit (a general call with the market fall on Tuesday) - still I was back buying more SEO by the end of the week!

You could well be right with the 25K sells; 50K, 25K and other round numbers seems to be general tactics, normally spread out a little to have maximum effect. When will the shorting stop? I expect it will take a much more bullish announcment from ASC. Chart may pause for reflection for a while having made a nice head and shoulders.

So what the quarterly trading statement say? Traffic seems to have held up. Its May before the move to the new warehouse so it may be second quarter before (July to Sept) before profits start improving. I suspect that they have delayed Miss Sixty and own label. But it seems reasonable that second quarter will pick up trend line from last year. The key question is whether much can be said that is positive in April. Otherwise, the shorters will continue their games. I am still confident of an sp of 1 plus by the calendar year end. But when to buy again is another matter. Other views? We may need a sleuth hound, stockdog!

Eric

Hi Eric and Seadog

Don't know about being plugged at the top of a bunker, but ASC is pretty unplayable at present. If it holds at the 50+ level of support, then I think your expectation of 1 by Xmas is probable. If it doesn't, it may wander in the wilderness for some time to come. With no new news to come (we know what the outturn for the year will look like and all about the new warehouse) and the market in a filthy temper generally, we can't tell what beach we'll wash up on just yet. However, whilst there is no good news, neither is there any bad news - the company continues to be run well with the correct key strategic move to a new warehouse and high levels of site visits and turnover which is good for the habit.

Personally, I am in some trepidation about the own label smutter. The winning formula is brand look-alikes. I have doubts that brand loyalty has shifted to ASOS per se amongst such a fickle crowd. If it's been delayed, it won't be too soon for me. Also I get the impression credit pressures and hints from BoE that the interest rate may not have topped is beginning to sink in - look at DFD's strong increase in customer base. High street woes continue, house sales are thinner than ever - consumption is pausing for breath at least.

I trimmed my position on Wednesday before it dropped a few pence - pure luck in timing, but I no longer felt comfortable being somewhat overweight and reduced to par holding, using the cash to top up on my latest paramour CFP (thank you Eric) which is looking more boyant short term.

I remain a committed holder of the balance whilst I wait and see what transpires the other side of end of tax year profit crystallisation. It's definitely becoming more of a tuck away and forget type share than the breathless roller coaster ride of its first year and on that basis you can't go wrong - but I would not be buying any more at present.

Happy Easter to everyone.

SD

stock dog

Good analysis. My point is that there is currently a hiatus in profits growth due to warehouse problems. It would appear that year on year revenue growth remains healthy. The problem was with cost of sales with a stock over-run at Xmas. Volumes are way up on last year (from traffic) but there should not be the pressure as at Xmas and so the cost problem may have gone away. naturally, they will hesitate on expansionary steps until stock-keeping and back office is sound. ASC remains a sound investment but a trading position is another matter. There is bound to be a bounce at some stage, it could be APril but may be mroe likely with the July trading statement and perhaps in advance of that as expectation grows. They have no real need to feed good news to the market.

I wonder if there is any feedback from the ladies who use the site?

Eric

And the increasing number of boys too!

A mention in the weekend press that Saturday trading in the High Street is falling dramatically but Sunday online buying at sites such as ASC have continued to rise and are now double the sales of a year ago. I am holding at a loss at the moment but have confidence medium term.

Thanks, moneyplus: the doubling volumes matches the hits on ASCs website. Hopefully, April will see an improved trading statement; if not then, may have to wait for July.

Stockdog: OK, boys as well! But dogs, no way! Worth looking out an on-line petshop though. But its the wrong sort of 'byte' so you won't be able to transmit their bones over the internet! What a dog's life! lol!

Eric

Ray Davis and the Kinks (way before your time of course!) had it right in their song Dedicated Follower Of Fashion - they must have been singing about a faithful hound.

whooooowoyoho, yeaahhh!

SD

Not so much before my time as beyond my ken! Therefore need the song quote, there's a good boy! Mstr Eric

There's no more to be said - it's in the title. You had to be there! But of course, if you remember it, you weren't.

But just for you, I have found the Kink's Link.



http://kinks.it.rit.edu/cgi-bin/MusicSearch.cgi?song=nonLP/song-dedfollow

Thanks, SD for the trouble taken! But hope that that isn't ASCs style - unless of course it makes LOM!

Eric

This share price has been on a downward spiral for a while now. Anyone think there will be an upturn?
simon

there will be upturn but your guess is has good as anyone elses.cheers woodie

just moved back into ASOS - feel very comfortable at these levels :)

welcome back MM

SD

Think these are going to continue to drift south... What do you make of toa woodie.. think they look dirt cheap!! Results seemed good to me!!

I wouldn't touch ASOS shares yet. It may go down lot more.
25p?????

Inbsuk, I totally agree that it will go down. I hate to go against followers on the board but I honestly think it will.

Perhaps 40p...

We shall see. I have been watching this for a while.

Re question about when downward spiral will stop. Timing depends on my view on two linked factors: first, positive news from ASOS themselves; second, the closing of shorting positions, presumably led by Evil and his merry gang (note he does get things wrong and has egg all over his face over Eidos). I think there is a strong possibility that this will occur with the trading statement for the quarter just ending which should be by mid-April. From what is known, margins were down in Jan and Feb whilst Xmas stock was cleared. Whilst the new warehouse will not be in place until May, the warehouse problems should not be an issue out of peak season.

What I really object to is a young know-all like legend visiting the site just to crow over his reeling opponents! Why 40p? Inbsuk: why 25p? What does this mean for pe this year, next year - are the figures justified or credible? Or are you shorting the share and therefore trying to shout it down? Do you crawl round other sites trying to wind people up? I don't go to BNH site and say I told you so! Have you suffered any red on your holdings this week?

Eric

Bravo Eric, you obviously stayed up late enough to get the last word to quieten the noisy invaders. For us sideliners, we obviously see who the regulars are and who are the visitors, especially those who appear to have no interest in the EPIC of the thread. May is an important point in the calendar, lots of our young ASOS buyers will be wanting to get their suitcases ready (or help mum with the packing) for the forthcoming summer holidays, this being the next real trading period after the Christmas bash. Always nice to have something to look forward to.