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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

cynic - 17 Sep 2007 20:15 - 129 of 1029

"Hushpuppy Man"? .... he may have been good in his day as was sans pareil Margaret Thatcher.

Scripophilist - 17 Sep 2007 20:23 - 130 of 1029

"i doubt very much that the deservedly discredited HIPs have had any effect at all on house sales. "

Totally incorrect, house sales have cratered!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex17thSep2007.pdf

Scripophilist - 17 Sep 2007 20:24 - 131 of 1029

But apparently just a temporary blip due to their introduction.

Guscavalier - 17 Sep 2007 21:09 - 132 of 1029

yes Clarke may be getting on a bit but he speaks with some logic and gets his points over well. You tend know what your getting and he puts opponents on their metal. This is necessary in opposition and seems lacking at present.

Dil - 17 Sep 2007 21:59 - 133 of 1029

And the comment on HIPs only affecting the bottom end of the market .... the bottom end makes up the majority of the market and if that falters it falters all the way up.

If someone can't sell their castle/stately home then no one gives a sh*t and has little if any effect on overall market conditions.

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 07:37 - 134 of 1029

I am always amazed that the same voices who blugeon politicians for their nanny state, suddenly look to blame them for a problem that started 3000 miles away in another country, and for not regulating to stop people buying what they want at the price they want to pay!
The housing market is regulated by simple demand and supply, as it should be. This will always lead to rises and falls.
The US problem, The NRK problem, The housing market problem. They are all the children of that most basic human trait of greed. If that is a truism and you really are unhappy with it, then fine, but please spare me the pleas for a return to the "greed is good" ethos of chancellors like Lamont and Clarke!!
Alan

Falcothou - 18 Sep 2007 07:40 - 135 of 1029

My local estate agent offers a hip for 330 which can be paid for over a 12 month period for 360, quite a small amount compared with average 180,000 price tag but still a pscyhological barrier

Strawbs - 18 Sep 2007 08:08 - 136 of 1029

Looks like anyone still short AL. will have been burned this morning....

Strawbs.

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 08:15 - 137 of 1029

there's actually an AL thread running ...... Telegraph still reckoned SELL this morning, but at lest i have clawed back a significant lump and have put quite a tight stop in place in csae this is a very-lived bounce ..... rescued my shirt - lol!

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 08:16 - 138 of 1029

Falco .... it's not so much the cost of a HIP but the actual value of them - and how long are they valid for? - and of course the lack of suitably qualified people, for it is not a job for normal surveyor.

of more use, to my mind, would be the adoption of the Scottish system, whereby if you put in a firm bid, it is legally binding on both parties.

Strawbs - 18 Sep 2007 08:17 - 139 of 1029

You did mention it on here yesterday..... :-P

Looks like BB. and NRK have recovered a little too. I guess the chancellors blank cheque has helped.....

Strawbs.

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 08:25 - 140 of 1029

Cynic,
Not that I would normally disagree with you, ;-) , but the Scottish system has the effect of magnifying house price booms. The very thing most on here seem to complain about.
The reason is very simple. Every time one puts an offer in, it must be through a solicitor and you must have had a survey done and mortgage offer in place. This costs as much as 2000 per offer and so a young couple looking to buy a flat in Glasgow see their deposit eaten away every time an offer fails, so eventually they decide that offering considerably more than the asking price is the only way to stop throwing 2 grand away every couple of weeks.
This is why most Scottish properties are on sale at "offers over".
Much prefer the English system, which will improve, BTW, as electronic storage and communications improve to the point where sale to completion is down to a week at most. Mortgage offers can already be produced in 30 minutes from application, and deeds are online. It is just the sales particulars and searches that are now a stumbling block. And idle solicitors, of course.
Alan

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 08:37 - 141 of 1029

Alan - many thanks for the clarification; as so often i was talking with a certain amount of ignorance, which i know will come as a great surprise to you! ...... in truth, it is the legally binding aspect of the scottish system that appeals, not least because it puts a halt to gazumping, to revive a fave word of the 70s, and the seller also knows where he stands - suppose i should say it stands in today's nauseously pc world!

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 08:42 - 142 of 1029

Not suprised - shocked!! ;-)
Gazumping (or more likely gazundering) will haunt us for some time yet, but the seeds are sown for a market without these things.
In truth our system has been drying out for years for something to change and I prefer a pre contract contract.
Simply an exchange of letters of intent, as any business would do. I will buy / sell at x price providing certain conditions are met and this agreement shall expire on xx date.
Works for me, but estate agents and solicitors hate the idea. It might cost 'em a few quid.
Alan

Guscavalier - 18 Sep 2007 09:02 - 143 of 1029

hewittalan6 - not everyone is a clear thinking financially as you. The credit card system and mortgage system has been a nightmare for some people, especially the gullable, encouraged to take out mortgages far in excess of what they can afford. I am not saying that a free market should not exist. In my opinion, the free market has been distorted by excessive unaffordable credit. You said Lamont, I didn't. I never thought much of him.

Stan - 18 Sep 2007 09:20 - 144 of 1029

Agree with HA, if people can't afford something and they buy it, sooner or later they will have to give it back.

How is this not understood?

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 09:22 - 145 of 1029

Because society has put forward the idea that home ownership is a right, not a privelidge. (sorry, can't spell)
Crap.

Stan - 18 Sep 2007 09:26 - 146 of 1029

Yes, peoples "expectations" unrealistic in today's low wage ageist society, oh yes and a little bit of greed in there as well.

maggiebt4 - 18 Sep 2007 13:10 - 147 of 1029

Surely one must also consider the unbelievable price of houses. Here in NI house prices have doubled in the last 2 years partly to do with developers buying and holding property Young people can't afford to buy the doors and windows at 3 times their salary so what are they to do? My daughter & husband lost approx 100 000 because the vendor pulled out of the sale at the last min Scottish system would have been better in this case - they lost surveyors fees etc anyway and were homeless and by the time they found something else house prices had risen. I think most people now look on home ownership as a luxury, young people are being priced out of the market - rant over!!!!

hangon - 18 Sep 2007 13:27 - 148 of 1029

Stan: - Great expectations are good, surely?
- - - - The alternative --- is economic reverse - - -
Aren't Mortgages are always more than you can afford? - because you want that "extra room", or maybe it's "the garage" - or any number of features that appeal to young couples.
If you work and have prospects the repayments are not a serious issue....indeed in five years' time you'll be wondering why you didn't have a double garage!
NRK is not alone in giving mortgages that are borderline - it all depends on the probability of a rate-hike and most try to ignore it.
If the rate is fixed for two years, there is a good chance you'll meet any increase with a better job, promotion, or a beneficial strike!

I think the whole NRK debacle is down to Politicians wanting to be seen as "Firm" against inflation, whilst bashing reckless investors (always a good party line, until you realise the Unions are investors too!)....and singling out NRK for a BoE loan just made everyone (with deposits) sit up and fear the worst.

The media fanned the situation by publishing photos of queues - rather than looking at the underlying finances, which appear (at this moment) to be perfectly reasonable... They lend, they borrow - provided the rates show a profit.....where is the problem?
It is entirely a manufactured problem, to fill front pages and occupy news slots.
Just a month ago NRK was 6 =trading about its NAV ( always difficult to determine, but they are "owners" of many properties, at least until the Mortgage is repaid)...so at the moment you can pick up a share at 50% discount...looks good to me and I bought some yesterday. If people look at reality I think they will see Politicians were posturing, for political gain that fell far sort of prudence.

Oh yes, I know debt is a problem and many folk are paying too much on store-cards. it's true house prices might fall - but we aren't losing jobs like we did in the Thatcher years (indeed we'd been doing it for decades after the War)....and weekly reports were of factories closing, jobs going abroad etc. THIS is NOT happening in the same way now. Many of our jobs are finance-based and many are relyant upon slightly dodgy deals....but IMHO the Public is not (yet) fearful of losing their job, or their home as a result. Provided interest rates are not increased it's possible to slow the economy down, whilst folk maintain repayments.
If they can do that, their long-term savings can collect interest and everyone sleeps well.
IMHO, It was political stupidity that rocked the boat and NRK in particular.

[[EDIT:Just caught the BBC News - there is a move in NE England to restore NRK confidence by opening an a/c with 2000 . . . to restore NRK's charitable model which has benefited the region greatly... ((Worth checking BBC website))..]]
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