Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Yes Farquir, Mick Kipper, Mechanical Trader, Goldfinger, Fishfinger do one LOL!!!!!

Cynic, I have evidence of him on a few occasions now using 2 alias on the same thread interacting to raise the SP.

This is not the same as a poster posting at random on differing threads with a different handle. Its INTERACTION by the same person to defraud people of their money.

Now if your comfourtable with that fine, I arent , its called ramping and its a criminal offence.

Anyway Ive saved it to word and will be presnting it to the FCA, just a few things to tie up before sending it.

I don't think BBs can have any noticeable influence on sp movement except perhaps where a stock is very illiquid or thinly traded

If thats the case why does every B/Board carry a WARNING NOTICE!!!!!!!.

Anyway thats not the point and stop being a silly devil if just one person gets defrauded thats one person too many.

Well unless its Chris Carson.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/public/market_abuse.pdf

Just seen a piece by Winnie on this, hes short and says........

2. Thomas Cook (TCG) at 127.5p – The CEO is a ghastly self-publicist which I always a bad sign. And I reckon trading is tough and so am expecting the end of month trading statement to be a profits warning. Post profits warning target price sub 100p. - See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6470/evil-knievil-lucian-miers-matt-earl-and-tom-winnifrith-the-top-10-stocks-in-london-to-short-for-summer#sthash.fmr3EfEg.dpuf

Stopped out @ 125.4 - 11

EPIC code: TCG
Thomas Cook – Harriet Green to get her P45 with profits warning and rebranding farce?
BY TOM WINNIFRITH | TUESDAY 15 JULY 2014

http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6571/thomas-cook-harriet-green-to-get-her-p45-with-profits-warning-and-rebranding-farce



- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6571/thomas-cook-harriet-green-to-get-her-p45-with-profits-warning-and-rebranding-farce#sthash.qEehN36F.TSwLVgTg.dpuf

Down it goes again , was happy buying in and out a while back , not now .
How low will it go ?

i wonder if the bears are beginning to close out to book their profits before the numbers - due tomorrow from memory

31 July 2014 Q3 2014 Interim Management Statement.

Winnie says watch out for a profit warning.

Can we believe him??

Not a holder but interesting stock.

I suspect only so many cuts can be made, perhaps so.

Odd that directors bought recently at 158p (i think) if they know there is a profit warning coming . I'm not in this at present ..

I don't hold atm - the chart caught my eye - hence post 1302.

Heres the article from Winnie, not too convincing but the SP as colapsed since he called it.

2. Thomas Cook (TCG) at 127.5p – The CEO is a ghastly self-publicist which I always a bad sign. And I reckon trading is tough and so am expecting the end of month trading statement to be a profits warning. Post profits warning target price sub 100p. - See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6470/evil-knievil-lucian-miers-matt-earl-and-tom-winnifrith-the-top-10-stocks-in-london-to-short-for-summer#sthash.fmr3EfEg.dpuf

That link above......

Evil Knievil, Lucian Miers, Matt Earl and Tom Winnifrith – the top 10 stocks in London to short for summer
BY TOM WINNIFRITH | WEDNESDAY 9 JULY 2014

301


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Anyone who was at UK Investor 2014 knows that the Bears session (HERE) saw some great calls. And so ahead of a long sweaty summer I asked Evil Knievil, Matt Earl (The Dark Destroyer) and Lucian Miers for their top 5 shorts of the summer and for good measure I add in my own. Between us we have thus compiled the top ten stocks to short in London!

Starring with the heavyweight – Evil Knievil. His top 5 are:

1. PureCircle (PURE) at 612.5p – never generates cash, grotesquely overvalued, cannot see business model stacking up, Red Flags in accounts – target price sub 200p

2. Quindell (QPP) at 184p ( and falling fast) – Red Flag Central, grave fears about cash position, change in business model alarming, still will not answer simple questions – target price “buttons”

3. Plus500 (PLUS) at 458p – on comparator metrics to, say, IG looks grossly overvalued – target price, sub 200p

4.New World Resources (NWR) at 12.125p – restructuring will shaft shareholders – target price 1.9p

5. Concha (CHA) at 1.95p – trading at a vast premium to cash, will have to do the deal of the century to justify that. It won’t. Target price 0.95p.

Next up Matt Earl (The Dark Destroyer). His top 5 are:

1. Avanti Communications (AVN) at 242p – where is the trading statement? We had one this time last year? Keeps on announcing spurious contract wins, drowning in debt, not generating cash and needs an urgent equity raise. Target price? Pennies.

2. Quindell (QPP) at 184p (and falling) – Matt’s analysis is the same as Evil’s and he also agrees on target price.

3. Globo (GBO) at 54.5p – has changed its business mode in an alarming way, is not generating cash – target price…pennies

4. Mothercare (MTC) at 264p – dies not believe that Destination Maternity has the muscle to take on Mothercare and its debts/financial obligations. Without a bid Mothercare needs to raise fresh equity urgently. Target price sub 120p.

5. Avanti Communications (AVN) at 242p – such a stonking short it merit a second mention.

And now the Bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers. His top 5 are:

1. Quindell (QPP) at 184p (and falling) – agrees with Evil’s analysis and target price. By a country mile the most obvious short in London.

2. Plus500 (PLUS) at 458p –again he agrees with Evil’s analysis.

3. PureCircle (PURE) at 612p – again he agrees with Evil’s analysis.

4. Globo (GBO) at 54.5p – Lucian agrees with Matt’s analysis.

5. Naibu (NBU) – Lucian does not believe the numbers and is stunned by the failure of management to attend the AGM and answer easy questions. Target price is pennies.

And finally to me. The top five shorts from the Sheriff of AIM in a very deliberate order are:

1. Quindell (QPP) at 184p (and falling) – my target price is 20p but I am starting to think that I am being rather generous. The company will not answer simple questions about things in its annual report and RNS statements that just do not stack up. The sudden change in business model at QLS is alarming and its Industrial Deafness projects are not believable. I sense cash will soon be a very real issue. Pro tem I will stick with a 20p target but expect a downgrade.

2. Thomas Cook (TCG) at 127.5p – The CEO is a ghastly self-publicist which I always a bad sign. And I reckon trading is tough and so am expecting the end of month trading statement to be a profits warning. Post profits warning target price sub 100p.

3. Globo (GBO) at 54p – as above. Target price 25p. For starters.

4. Naibu (NBU) as above. Target price 1p as per article earlier today HERE

5. I’m tempted to go with Concha (CHA) but on balance Avanti Communications (AVN) at 242p – target price by September if it gets cash call away 120p. If not..buttons.

And so merging all four lists the top ten stocks to short for a profitable summer by mention and ranking in individual lists are:

1. Quindell - 4 mentions and the top short of all 4 men
2. Globo – 3 mentions and Matt Earl’s second top short
3. Avanti Communications 3 – albeit Matt Earl casting two votes
4. PureCircle – 2 votes
5. Plus500 – 2 votes
6. Naibu – 2 votes
7. Concha – 1 vote and 1 almost vote
8. Thomas Cook – 1 vote
9. Mothercare – 1 vote
10. New World Resources – 1 vote

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6470/evil-knievil-lucian-miers-matt-earl-and-tom-winnifrith-the-top-10-stocks-in-london-to-short-for-summer#sthash.fmr3EfEg.6wBBOzG4.dpuf

Interim Management Statement

Key points
Three months ended 30 June 2014 compared with three months ended 30 June 2013 (underlying):
· All businesses delivered improved results, contributing to a Group EBIT increase of £32m; UK EBIT improved by £27 million
· Strong 30 basis point improvement in gross margin; UK gross margin increased by 150 basis points
· Customer demand for new products encouraging; Summer 14 bookings for concept hotels up 43%
· Additional Wave 1 cost out of £51 million since 31 March 2014; Wave 2 developing well
· Substantial progress digitising the business; improved web penetration and mobile and tablet bookings up 73%
· Business performance for FY14 in line with our expectations, in spite of increased European short haul airline market capacity
· Our one airline integration performing strongly, delivering continued efficiencies
· Stronger late Summer 14 bookings in the UK, Germany and Northern Europe; encouraging bookings for the Winter 14/15 and Summer 15 seasons

you missed out "But the company warned in May that average holiday prices in Britain for the current summer period were 3 percent lower than last year, worrying investors and causing the stock to lose about a third of its value in last three months" though I'm sure that's already discounted

31 July 2014

Interim Management Statement for the three months ended 30 June 2014

Successful transformation continues with third quarter profit increase

"Our transformation is progressing very well. Today's announcement of a £32 million rise in underlying EBIT, represents our eighth consecutive quarter of increased profits. Every business improved and the UK delivered the most significant contribution, accounting for over three quarters of the total rise, as we start to realise its full potential.

Twenty four months into our transformation, we are confident that our deliberate actions to improve operating efficiency and yield management, digitise our business and develop new exclusive products that build on the strength and trust that our brand represents, will significantly improve Thomas Cook's profitability and growth trajectory. As a stronger and more resilient business, our operational performance remains in line with our expectations for FY14 and we look forward to delivering more value in FY15 and onwards."

Harriet Green, Chief Executive of Thomas Cook

Hmmm? Not bad for a lady, who Tom Winnifrith describes as a 'ghastly self publicist' and one who would be providing a profits warning with this trading statement and also handing in her P45 with it.

In fact, its pretty good stuff and she's a pretty good CEO.

And it seems TW is really a bit of a dodgy tipster.

Tweeted this to Winnie.........

@TomWinnifrith Hi Tom, would you accept that you have called TCG wrong after todays results?. Harriet is in for a bonus and not the chop?.......................ends.

Will be interesting to see probably a bitchy reply. He usualy does reply.

Not buying myself as I think the market at the moment will take back what it gives.