up another 10% with 3m traded already


gordon geko - 15 Oct'04 - 16:27 - 37 of 41 edit



where too next week ?


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 17:58 - 38 of 41


gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.


wilbs - 15 Oct'04 - 19:11 - 39 of 41


I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 19:44 - 40 of 41


wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.



wilbs - 17 Oct'04 - 08:34 - 41 of 41


I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs

the oilbarrel article
Falkland Oil & Gas Says Fundraising Oversubcribed
AFX News Limited Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said its offer to raise 2 mln stg via the issue of 5 mln shares at 40 pence each has been oversubscribed. The group said it received applications for 17.45 mln shares, representing 6.98 mln stg. "As a result....applications will not all be settled in full," it said. The minimum subscription under the offer was for 2,500 shares, or 1,000 stg, and all valid applications will receive at least this amount, it added. "Applicants will also receive 12.415 pct of the amount they have applied for in excess of 2,500 shares." In a separate statement, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its shareholding will represent 18.1 pct of Falkland Oil and Gas's enlarged share capital.

London-based Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) has identified eight leads from existing 2D seismic in its seven licenses off the southern coast of the Falkland Islands, spokesperson Ben Brewerton told BNamericas.

The leads range from 211 million barrels (mb) to 626mb and could contain a total 3.75 billion barrels, Brewerton said. Each of the seven blocks has at least one lead in it.

FOGL identified the leads by re-interpreting 2D seismic work carried out in the 1990s and it plans to redo some of the seismic in December this year, followed by a 3D seismic program in 2005.

The company could then consider farming-in a partner to help fund drilling on specific targets in 2006-2007, Brewerton said.

To fund the 3D program, FOGL announced it has raised 10mn pounds (US$18mn) through a private placement of 25 million shares at 40 pence per share, FOGL said in a statement.

FOGL has announced a public offering of a further 5 million shares at 40p/share, which must be subscribed by October 12.

If the offer is fully subscribed, FOGL will raise an additional 2mn pounds before expenses, meaning that the net proceeds of the placing and offer will be about 11mn pounds. The company would then list on London's junior AIM market with a market value of 32mn pounds.

Dealings in the shares are expected to start October 14. KBC Peel Hunt has been appointed as nominated adviser and broker to FOGL.

FOGL was formed in May 2004 as a joint venture between Falkland Islands Holdings, Global Petroleum and RAB Special Situations.

Shareholdings in FOGL prior to the placing and offer are: Falkland Islands Holdings 28.9%; Global Petroleum 25.7%; and RAB Special Situations 45.4%.

FOGL has a 77.5% interest in seven exploration licenses covering approximately 33,700 sq. km. to the south of the Falkland Islands. Australia's Hardman Resources has the remaining 22.5% interest.

About Business News Americas: Business News Americas is a multilingual news and business information service that covers the most important original stories in 11 different business sectors throughout Latin America everyday. Visit BNamericas to access our real-time news reports, 7-year archive, Fact File company

Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said it placed 25 mln shares at 40 pence each to raise 10 mln stg before expenses.

The company, which expects its shares to begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market on Oct 14, also announces a public offer of a further 5 mln shares at 40p a share. Assuming the maximum number of shares available are subscribed, it will raise an additional 2 mln stg before expenses.

Falkland Oil, which holds a 77.5 pct interest in seven exploration licences covering about 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands, will have a market capitalisation of 32 mln stg on admission to AIM and net proceeds from the placing and offer will be about 11 mln stg.

Following the placing, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC's interest in Falkland Oil will be 18.1 pct.

Aerotus,

Well good luck with your short.

Many people like myself are holding free shares abtained by top slicing the original float, and are 3/4 of the way towards maximum BATR, so won't be trading or selling, IMO.

I have made considerable profit in many stocks by buying what I perceive as value, and holding. I see FOGL as a similar stock.

Whilst I agree drilling is some way off, it MAY occur in 2007 if a farminee can be found!

Results are meaningless as they are only exploring.

The only "hype" I read were two newspaper columns with differing opinions on likely farminee partners, nothing about a takeover at all!

And this RNS does not mention farminees, just takeovers!

Don't get me wrong, I was bullish on FOGL and have held long positions before. But the latest announcement was a shorter's paradise opportunity. I'm just here to make some money, nothing personal.

FOGL has enormous potential, but timing is key.

Just closed my short for an easy 10% profit. Will open another one if it rises from here.

Aerotus,

Well done, I didn't take it personally, and if I had seen the RNS sooner, I would have shorted it myself.

I visited the FOGL Chartroom a couple of months ago, and their seismic is impressive, and they have quite a sizeable team working through that seismic, and comparing with the old geographical survey charts from years ago.

I left impressed, as did a geologist that went on the same visit. No proof of anything I know, but reassuring to see the company have a solid operation working away in a professional manner.

I still feel a farminee will be announced in the not too distant future, but that is only a gut feeling, and not based on any actual fact or knowledge.

I have heard the same info Andy, very bullish info and rumours dating back from summer 2005 that the majors were interested. Great long term investment but there are far more pressing investments to be attended to, such as VOG and EME, both have been a minimum 3-4 bagger for me. And I intend to hold for a year or two at least. By that time, I may even buy FOGL. :)

I'm short again. This could possibly go all the way back to 1.20.

Aerotus/Andy,
Have you read the article about the Falklands on Oilbarrel ?

Giggin

I think so Giggin but I cannot quite remember the details. Care to jog my memory please?

Aerotus
The article was an interview with David Bamford who has 23 years experience with BP and a phd in Geological Science. He said he was pessimistic about the possibility of there being any trapped hydrocarbons after seeing the latest seismic results.
Im not in FOGL but I am in DES. I also own DGO, COP, TXO and TAG

Giggin

giggin - I'm in TAG heavily. Nice rise on TXO today!

Aerotus
I only have 10000 Tag but heavy in DGO and SEY
Its good to see a rise on TXO as its been all down hill for the last couple of months

Giggin

Giggin, Andy and others
Interested to hear you views on how seriously to take David Bamford's report.
Seems a little too coincidental to be published at the 180p peak - someone wanting the SP cooled off, or a genuine report?

sd

As I suspected, there is definitely a very large seller offloading. Perhaps even a short attack in the absence of news. Take care longs.

Aerotus,

I agree.




Stockdog,

he has his opinion, which obviously contradicts the publically stated opinion of the various explorers in the Falkland Island area.

How he can state with any degree of certainty what he does say is beyond me, has he done 3d seismic and drilled the S. Atlantic?

He makes it sound as though he has when he hasn't.

I have an open mind, and anywayn this is a speculation for me, not a large investment, and all the shares are free, as I top sliced after the IPO.

Another minor sell off today taking the price with it. I see that Falkland Island Holdings sold a substantial chunk below market price last week - not unsensibly just rebalancing their portfolio and freeing up some cash for some diversification after the large recent rise. Is there any more news that we have not been told to beware of?

sd

stockdog,

Well the trades are VERY interesting so far today!

I make it virtually ALL buys, that's a decent volume, and 5$% up today.

Maybe there will be announcement this time?

stockdog,

Well, another 45,000 in buys just gone through, now 8p up, 6.97%.

Something definately seems to be brewing here IMO!

Andy
Now up 11p at 152p - mostly PI's but a number of larger trades in among them.
Since the peak of 180p we've had the Oilbarrell negative article and then FKL selling some of their holding - so I was watching a little nervously to see where we might retreat to. As you say, looks like something is brewing, although volume is not so high. See what the end of the day brings.

sd

Stockdog,

Well that was an interesting day!

Up, then retraced most of the up, then retraced most of the retrace!

760,000 shares traded, value > 1,000,000, looks healthy enough to me.

Now we just need to know why?

Well, what brought that on - 11% drop over the last 3 days and broken down through the Jan'06 uptrend. Can't see anyting visible. What's it looking like on Level 2 - are there sharks lurking beneath the Level 1 surface? Is there bad news in the wind or has Falkland Island Holdings disposed of another large tranche?

Although still well in the centre of the long-term upchannel from launch the lower limb of which cuts todays chart at 110p.

All views and news welcome.

Thanks

sd