Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Interim Management Statement

Key points
Three months ended 30 June 2014 compared with three months ended 30 June 2013 (underlying):
· All businesses delivered improved results, contributing to a Group EBIT increase of £32m; UK EBIT improved by £27 million
· Strong 30 basis point improvement in gross margin; UK gross margin increased by 150 basis points
· Customer demand for new products encouraging; Summer 14 bookings for concept hotels up 43%
· Additional Wave 1 cost out of £51 million since 31 March 2014; Wave 2 developing well
· Substantial progress digitising the business; improved web penetration and mobile and tablet bookings up 73%
· Business performance for FY14 in line with our expectations, in spite of increased European short haul airline market capacity
· Our one airline integration performing strongly, delivering continued efficiencies
· Stronger late Summer 14 bookings in the UK, Germany and Northern Europe; encouraging bookings for the Winter 14/15 and Summer 15 seasons

you missed out "But the company warned in May that average holiday prices in Britain for the current summer period were 3 percent lower than last year, worrying investors and causing the stock to lose about a third of its value in last three months" though I'm sure that's already discounted

31 July 2014

Interim Management Statement for the three months ended 30 June 2014

Successful transformation continues with third quarter profit increase

"Our transformation is progressing very well. Today's announcement of a £32 million rise in underlying EBIT, represents our eighth consecutive quarter of increased profits. Every business improved and the UK delivered the most significant contribution, accounting for over three quarters of the total rise, as we start to realise its full potential.

Twenty four months into our transformation, we are confident that our deliberate actions to improve operating efficiency and yield management, digitise our business and develop new exclusive products that build on the strength and trust that our brand represents, will significantly improve Thomas Cook's profitability and growth trajectory. As a stronger and more resilient business, our operational performance remains in line with our expectations for FY14 and we look forward to delivering more value in FY15 and onwards."

Harriet Green, Chief Executive of Thomas Cook

Hmmm? Not bad for a lady, who Tom Winnifrith describes as a 'ghastly self publicist' and one who would be providing a profits warning with this trading statement and also handing in her P45 with it.

In fact, its pretty good stuff and she's a pretty good CEO.

And it seems TW is really a bit of a dodgy tipster.

Tweeted this to Winnie.........

@TomWinnifrith Hi Tom, would you accept that you have called TCG wrong after todays results?. Harriet is in for a bonus and not the chop?.......................ends.

Will be interesting to see probably a bitchy reply. He usualy does reply.

Not buying myself as I think the market at the moment will take back what it gives.

hi sticky (from lovely barca on biz) .... it would indeed be bitchily jolly to see the shorters without shorts :-)

Got reply to my tweet above.......

@MickK no not yet. article up later @tomwinnifrith.......................ends.

Ill post it here when it goes live.

Cyners......... "lovely barca on biz" LOL more like lovely barca on the p-ss.

Lovely city. Ive always said Im going to buy a home thier one day.

Some fantastic eating and watering holes. enjoy it while it lasts.

back tomorrow afternoon ..... had a great lunch of razor clams and mussels at one of the little snackerias in boqueria market yesterday

cynic try and enjoy your holiday and get off the internet , whoever your with must be screaming cynic relax enjoy the view !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

not hol - promise, though I do indeed try to pick my trips with some care :-)

LOL.

A bit ironic to have Winnifrith referring to the CEO of TCG as "a ghastly self- publicist". :-) Actually when she took over as CEO I seem to remember she kept a very low profile for at least six months while she was getting the company back on track.

Wouldnt say it was low profile doodles but when it comes to winnie.... kettle black pot.

Mind these results after reading a few times arent as good as they read first time around.

Not that much change from previous ones. Outlook statement a little premature me thinks.

Will be interesting to read Winnies conclusions.

And she's quite tidy !!!

sticky - of course there was an outlook statement; it is de rigeur

Yep too early to predict autumn trading although to date according to TCG outlook statement they are ahead. That could change. Thats what Im saying.

Forgot to post this earlier,

Winnies article on TCG promised above.........

Thursday 31 July 2014 | The one stop source for free breaking news, expert analysis, and videos on AIM and LSE listed shares
EPIC code: TCG
Thomas Cook – Not a Profits warning but not inspiring: Harriet Green still on borrowed time
BY TOM WINNIFRITH | THURSDAY 31 JULY 2014

6


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Sadly Thomas Cook (TCG) did not as I had hoped serve up a profits warning today. Its shares are broadly unchanged at 122p but its trading statement is far from inspiring and the City knives are still out for PR obsessed CEO Harriet Green. She cannot afford to slip.

Ms Green states:

Our transformation is progressing very well. Today's announcement of a £32 million rise in underlying EBIT, represents our eighth consecutive quarter of increased profits. Every business improved and the UK delivered the most significant contribution, accounting for over three quarters of the total rise, as we start to realise its full potential.

Twenty four months into our transformation, we are confident that our deliberate actions to improve operating efficiency and yield management, digitise our business and develop new exclusive products that build on the strength and trust that our brand represents, will significantly improve Thomas Cook's profitability and growth trajectory. As a stronger and more resilient business, our operational performance remains in line with our expectations for FY14 and we look forward to delivering more value in FY15 and onwards.

Hmmm.

Net debt as at June 30th £507 million up from £452 million a year earlier. EBIT & EBITDA is blah blah blah. It is cash that matters.

In terms of cost savings Ms Green says:

As we previously announced, in the context of our FY18 Wave 2 cost out and profit improvement target of over GBP400 million, we have so far identified an initial proportion of benefits, which we have fully risk weighted, of GBP150 million. We will provide the next update on both Wave 1 and Wave 2 cost out and profit improvement benefits with our 2014 full-year results. In the meantime, we remain on track to achieve these targets.

What does all that mean? I think it means jam tomorrow.

Underling trading in recent weeks? Poor.

“Bookings and headline average selling prices for our UK business are broadly similar to when we previously updated the market in May, being flat and 4% lower respectively compared to last year. “

But there is some more jam tomorrow:

“However, recent booking volumes in the "lates" market have improved significantly, indicating a later booking pattern for the Summer season than last year”

Overall Ms Green reckons she will still meet 2014 forecasts thanks to those “Wave 2” cost savings and the late bookings. We shall see. She has a lot to deliver upon and if she slips by even a small margin she knows what is coming…

The shares are down by a third in two months. Probably not a sell any more but I’d certainly not be buying.

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6915/thomas-cook-not-a-profits-warning-but-not-inspiring-harriet-green-still-on-borrowed-time#sthash.4lhsDj8g.dpuf

I notice he had forgotten about Abola and the Passport Strikes and backlog, so I mentioned this to him and fair enough to him he said I should have used that for forward earnings.

I scarcely think ebola nor even a backlog with passports will have any noticeable effect whatsoever - if that much
perhaps he/you should drag the argentinian default into the equation or even the difficulty of getting in/out of gaza!

seems to me that "your mate" is backpedalling quite rapidly while trying not to admit it

How do you mean that bad flu epidemic a few years back played hell with travel firms.

Have you forgotten?.

Hes not my mate really I know him through Evil K, Simon Cawkwel.