Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Forgot to post this earlier,

Winnies article on TCG promised above.........

Thursday 31 July 2014 | The one stop source for free breaking news, expert analysis, and videos on AIM and LSE listed shares
EPIC code: TCG
Thomas Cook – Not a Profits warning but not inspiring: Harriet Green still on borrowed time
BY TOM WINNIFRITH | THURSDAY 31 JULY 2014

6


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Sadly Thomas Cook (TCG) did not as I had hoped serve up a profits warning today. Its shares are broadly unchanged at 122p but its trading statement is far from inspiring and the City knives are still out for PR obsessed CEO Harriet Green. She cannot afford to slip.

Ms Green states:

Our transformation is progressing very well. Today's announcement of a £32 million rise in underlying EBIT, represents our eighth consecutive quarter of increased profits. Every business improved and the UK delivered the most significant contribution, accounting for over three quarters of the total rise, as we start to realise its full potential.

Twenty four months into our transformation, we are confident that our deliberate actions to improve operating efficiency and yield management, digitise our business and develop new exclusive products that build on the strength and trust that our brand represents, will significantly improve Thomas Cook's profitability and growth trajectory. As a stronger and more resilient business, our operational performance remains in line with our expectations for FY14 and we look forward to delivering more value in FY15 and onwards.

Hmmm.

Net debt as at June 30th £507 million up from £452 million a year earlier. EBIT & EBITDA is blah blah blah. It is cash that matters.

In terms of cost savings Ms Green says:

As we previously announced, in the context of our FY18 Wave 2 cost out and profit improvement target of over GBP400 million, we have so far identified an initial proportion of benefits, which we have fully risk weighted, of GBP150 million. We will provide the next update on both Wave 1 and Wave 2 cost out and profit improvement benefits with our 2014 full-year results. In the meantime, we remain on track to achieve these targets.

What does all that mean? I think it means jam tomorrow.

Underling trading in recent weeks? Poor.

“Bookings and headline average selling prices for our UK business are broadly similar to when we previously updated the market in May, being flat and 4% lower respectively compared to last year. “

But there is some more jam tomorrow:

“However, recent booking volumes in the "lates" market have improved significantly, indicating a later booking pattern for the Summer season than last year”

Overall Ms Green reckons she will still meet 2014 forecasts thanks to those “Wave 2” cost savings and the late bookings. We shall see. She has a lot to deliver upon and if she slips by even a small margin she knows what is coming…

The shares are down by a third in two months. Probably not a sell any more but I’d certainly not be buying.

- See more at: http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6915/thomas-cook-not-a-profits-warning-but-not-inspiring-harriet-green-still-on-borrowed-time#sthash.4lhsDj8g.dpuf

I notice he had forgotten about Abola and the Passport Strikes and backlog, so I mentioned this to him and fair enough to him he said I should have used that for forward earnings.

I scarcely think ebola nor even a backlog with passports will have any noticeable effect whatsoever - if that much
perhaps he/you should drag the argentinian default into the equation or even the difficulty of getting in/out of gaza!

seems to me that "your mate" is backpedalling quite rapidly while trying not to admit it

How do you mean that bad flu epidemic a few years back played hell with travel firms.

Have you forgotten?.

Hes not my mate really I know him through Evil K, Simon Cawkwel.

how many countries affected by ebola that will have any effect on the arage holiay-maker

Depends how fast it spreads.

Had my eye on these again ,think they may have bottomed out .

probably one of TW's less successful calls with sp bouncing strongly off 25/50 dma

Hmmm? It does look like TW might well have got this one really wrong!
The lovely lady, pictured above, does seem to be doing a pretty good job.
The punters must also be covering their short positions.
No volcanoes are popping their spouts.
No terrorist problems. Yet?
No more passenger jet shootdowns.
Was the last one more to do with the Malaysian jet's own mistake - flying over the wrong territory at the wrong time?
(Note: On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a Boeing 777-200, flying to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam, crashed near Donetsk in the eastern part of Ukraine. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were reported dead when the plane crashed from roughly 33,000ft (10,000 m). The crash of Flight 17 coincided with claims by Russian separatists from Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine of having shot down a military An-26. At the time, this was the deadliest airliner shootdown in history.)

Ahhhhhh but their were reports on TV news yesterday Ebola is getting really out of hand.

I cant make my mind up wether to buy or not.

The TA position looks rather positive.

OFF topic OPAY report results on wed, might have a good run up to them. Tip sheet tomorrow may cover them.

ebola is not nearly as easy to catch as you think, and more to the point, i don't see TCG arranging holidays to sierra leone, congo and others

Agreed.

In the USA, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says there’s no significant risk of Ebola in the United States. It has strong safety measures in place for people who have Ebola and are brought to the U.S. for treatment.

Ebola can spread from country to country when people travel. So it is possible for it to reach the U.S. if an infected person travels there. But there are ways to prevent people from coming to U.S. airports with the disease.

Airline crews are trained to spot the symptoms of Ebola in passengers flying from places where the virus is found. Crews are told to quarantine anyone who looks infected.

Iwould suppose there is something similar in place for the UK.

How Do You Get Ebola?

Ebola isn’t as contagious as more common viruses like colds, influenza, or measles. It spreads to people by contact with the skin or bodily fluids of an infected animal, like a monkey, chimp, or fruit bat. Then it moves from person to person the same way. Those who care for a sick person or bury someone who has died from the disease often get it.

Other ways to get Ebola include touching contaminated needles or surfaces.

You can’t get Ebola from air, water, or food. But of course, you could get it from fluids in the air from, say a sneeze. A person who has Ebola but has no symptoms can’t spread the disease, either.

To catch ebola you need contact with the bodily fluids (or residues) of or from a 'sick with ebola' person.



One of the best things you can do to keep down the spread of infection.... (Sorry, just gone to wash my hands)......is to wash your......(Sorry, just gone to wash my hands again)......hands.

Hmmm? It's now time to scrub my hands. I only washed them last time.

" It has strong safety measures in place for people who have Ebola and are brought to the U.S. for treatment."

"....Those who care for a sick person or bury someone who has died from the disease often get it." I think that is one thing they are trying to change for in many west African countries it is customary for mourners to touch the body before interment. It's proving very tricky to educate people into changing the habits of many generations.

Yeah. Get rid of lots of 'mystic shit ideas and false causes' and we would start to solve many of the world's problems.

Let's start with religion.

Gone long on pull back.

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group expects to report its ninth consecutive quarter of improved profitability when it issues its FY results in November.

"Our achievements over the last 24 months demonstrate the impact of a transformed team capable of delivering significantly greater shareholder value in the future," said CEO Harriet Green.

"I look forward to sharing more progress on our targets and opportunities for sustainable profitable growth at our full year results in November, when we expect to report a ninth consecutive quarter of improved profitability," she said in a pre-close statement.

Green said the successful transformation of the company continues.

"We are also very encouraged by the progress we are making against our most important strategic targets and KPIs.

"In particular, we have delivered more Wave 1 and Wave 2 cost out and profit improvement benefits, a higher rate of web bookings and importantly, given the encouraging customer demand for our exclusive Concept and Partnership hotels, more opportunities for profitable growth.

"We expect our operational performance in this second year of our transformation to show a material improvement on FY13, notwithstanding the impact this year of economic and geopolitical factors on our customers."

Highlights:

· Successful transformation of Thomas Cook continues

· FY14 operational performance expected to show material improvement on last year despite the recent downturn in consumer confidence in Germany

· FY14 underlying EBIT expected to be between £315 million and £335 million, equivalent to growth of between 39% and 48%

· Excellent progress in web performance, particularly in the UK

· Improving revenue contribution from Concept and Partnership hotels

· Strong late Summer 14 bookings in all of our major source markets, with increasing demand for our Concept hotels

· Strong Winter 14/15 bookings in the UK with 29% sold; Summer 15 bookings encouraging

OUCH!
122.25p
trend is down

Final Results

Highlights

12 months ended 30 September 2014 compared with 12 months ended 30 September 2013:

· Underlying EBIT on a like-for-like basis was £323 million, an increase of £98 million, or 44% (FY13 LFL: £225 million)

· All businesses delivered improved profitability. In particular, underlying UK EBIT margin improved by 130 basis points to 3.5% (FY13: 2.2%), achieving our FY14 target

· New Product revenue grew by £186 million in FY14, bringing cumulative growth since FY12 to £280 million and contributing towards our FY15 target of £700 million. Customer demand for Concept Hotels has been encouraging with Summer 14 bookings up 43% year-on-year

· Web penetration increased to 38% (FY13: 36%). In particular, web performance improved on main websites in the UK, Germany and Northern Europe where our focused digital investment has led to double-digit increases in bookings. We developed and implemented our omnichannel strategy in the UK, with other markets to follow

· Further Wave 1 cost out and profit improvements of £206 million delivered in FY14 brought cumulative benefits to £400 million. Reflecting the continuing success of the programme, we are increasing our Wave 1 FY15 target from £460 million to more than £500 million

· Our Wave 2 FY18 target currently remains at £400 million. We are increasing our identified risk-weighted benefits by £30 million to £180 million, reflecting greater certainty of delivery

· We have de-risked our business by reducing low profit and high risk operations, through business disposals, strategic reductions in risk capacity in France and Russia, and the removal from sale of low quality product

· Net debt reduced by £95 million to £326 million (FY13: £421 million), alongside significant investment in the business in the form of capital expenditure and transformation costs

the numbers sound good to this numbskull, so fingers x'ed that the market et al think likewise