The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

tokyo,
i meant to post that bit as well!,basically i was just saying that we should`nt take ANY notice of any press,it`s just that some PET holders are getting a bit twitchy.

willfagg,
remember that song, "silence is golden"?.

i`ve sent PET an e-mail asking why they have`nt issued an rns on the progress, as in the past they have kept us informed. i don`t hold out much hope of a reply though !!.
dexter.

ps. i sent the e-mail before i read the reply from DH above.

Dexter - I also sent DH a cleverly worded e-mail yesterday, although perhaps not clever enough as I've not had a reply today, and really do not hold out much hope of one. PET keep pressing the point that they have been sworn to secrecy by the MOO, and well we are not going to get anything out of them, and as frustrating as it is, the only thing we can do is just wait, the SP takes a short term hit, well it is nothing we haven't seen before, one thing is for sure I feel like I've been on a roller coaster ride with this company, I've built up a fair sized holding (perhaps weighted my portfolio a little too heavily with PET), done a sh*t load of research into this company and there is no way I going to chicken out of it now, I said back in April it was sh*t or bust, guess it is time to live up to my word, I shall either be pretty rich or lose a chuck of my portfolio soon, I'm still willing to take the gamble, the question is, how many investors are willing to do the same?

Tokyo

Tokyo,
it really does`nt matter if the sp swings 10% or so because until we get the elusive rns it is going to stay around the 1 mark, at least without the day traders it stays more stable!.
what made you buy into PET all those long months ago ?, with me it was when they topped the leader board on feb 19th, it prompted some quick research and bought my first ot on feb 20th.
dexter

It was actually a friend (who normally gives me pretty good tips) bringing it to my attention @ about 27pence, I rushed off and did some research and it looked like a gamble that could pay off, I was at first a little worried about the size of the company, but my friends tips had always been pretty good, my research took a couple of days, then I saw Chartist's thread and decided to take another look and I didn't get in until 31 pence, but that 4 pence hardly seems to matter now.

Tokyo! im in til the end! Gone too far and too long to let a few days(i hope) make me sell. Could nt live with myself if i woke up to see a substantially higher opening price on the back of an after hours RNS!

tokyo,
do you get the daily e-mail tips from uk analyst, it`s free and in the past they`ve had some good tips........and some not so good!!,but every little helps , even if to point you in a certain direction,
dexter

Tokyo,
I'm staying in too.
Couldn't bear to lose out now, just because of nerves.
We just have to sit tight and wait.....
Sabine

Tokyo and dexter.

You two are still doing a great job despite the fact that you were in relatively early. I really listen to the golden silence! There is only one reason for silence from PET and that is that they are doing the bidding of the IOM. It doesn't mean its cut and dried because the IOM could be having problems of their own: justifying their selection? coping with today's problems? not happy with some aspect(s) of the bid? last minute temptations from an oil major? As I see it, we are still on an 80% probability of a super outcome but we all know things can go belly up in that sort of situation. It has to be seen as risk part of your portfolio. It must not be curtains for me and my future as an investor if its curtains for the contract. If anyone is over-exposed, then I would suggest cutting the holding to an amount you can cope with. That is just common sense.

Eric

good post eric,
thanks for your kind words,
at least being in early, it gives you a bit of a cushion if it did all go belly up..... not tha it will !!!.
dexter

i am in a position where i am able to have my pc on all day at work with money am and my on-line brokerage side to side. Should anything dramatic happen i am able to react. i have sat and watched so many 'tree shakes' that i percieve today to be following suit. This is nervousness based on the fact tomorrow is the last day in November! i am not willing to lose on this stock nor am i going to get out before it all takes off! A fine line indeed!

Perhaps the article implied that PET were making such statements *before* October, hence the price-rise back then. Not trying to de-ramp but...?

Eric - I agree the silence is golden, Why be sworn to secrecy if there is no secret to be kept. We seen that they had to resubmit their tender after the talks in Jordan, so really we are waiting for the outcome, none of us know what they talked about, was it risk/sharing or was it the joining of companies to work on these projects? All we do know is that PET are very confident and are doing what the MOO has ordered them to, and keep quiet. Everything we have is pointing to a positive result, lets just hope it is so!!!

Tokyo

does anyone look at www.platts.com , it`s free to register and seems that it could be quite interesting. i`ve only just signed up so have`nt had chance to read too muc as yet.
typical tree shake, everyone hold on!, the MM`s want your stock.
dexter

gonna check that out now dexter

this is taken from platts, reading the figures it would be madness for the IOM to delay these or any other contracts. seeing as the contracts PET have gone for are some of the first, the sooner the oil flows, the sooner the majors will want a piece of the action, either with PET or in other areas of iraq.


The value of Iraq's own revenues

On the plus side, there is one prospective gain: high oil prices could bring increased oil revenues. This is a complex matter since the degree to which high oil prices are predicated on Iraqi instability is itself a major factor in determining the impact on Iraqi oil revenues. If the country is stable, it will contribute to a substantial lowering of oil prices, with an adverse impact on revenues; if it is unstable, prices may be high but it may not be able to get its oil to market. With uncertainty governing both the price that Iraqi oil might command and the amount of oil that it might be able to export, it makes sense to look at Iraqi oil exports revenue prospects in very broad terms.

In general, at oil prices of $35/bbl, Iraq stands to secure $1.067.5-bil in foreign exchange earnings every month for every 1-mil bbl of oil exported. At $30/bbl, it earns $915-mil/month; at $25/bbl, earnings slip to $762.5-bil/month; and at $20 it earns $610-mil.

Under current circumstances, with oil prices well above $35/bbl, with production capacity at around 2.4-mil b/d (actual oil production totaled 2.38-mil b/d in April) and with Iraq itself consuming some 600,000 b/d, Iraq might reasonably expect to secure around $1.92-bil in foreign exchange earnings in May. (Such figures only yield foreign exchange earnings, they do not take into account the costs of producing the oil or getting it to market).

Given that it may now no longer be possible to make even reasonable predictions concerning future Iraqi export levels, prospective annual Iraqi oil export earnings can best be indicated as follows.

Table: Indicative Iraqi Oil Export Earnings

For production levels of 2.5-mil b/d and export levels of 1.9-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $13.9-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.3-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.8-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $24.3-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $27.7-bil.

For production levels of 3.0-mil b/d and export levels of 2.35-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.2-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $21.4-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.0-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $34.3-bil.

For production levels of 3.5-mil b/d and export levels of 2.8-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.6-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.8-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.

For production levels of 4.0-mil b/d and export levels of 3.2-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $23.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $29.2-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.0-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $46.7-bil.

Beat me to it!!!!! funny how there are more Buys than Sells and the sp is still down. Then again this is only activity that the MM's have engineered imo.

Just in case it has not been said?

PRE took a hammering today!

PET have the same board, (near as), and CEO.

They are obviously being blamed for the debacle following yards of spin in the RNS's for the latest drill at Danbury Dome by PRE.

I suspect the drop in PET today, albeit small, is a reflection on PET from PRE.

Just a thought.

I no longer hold.

Good luck peps.......

gre and seawallwalker

I think this point needs to be made. Its so easy to see the MMs as the enemy. Perhaps its better to treat them as friends. They are really nice people; they are doing this job to earn their living; the girls get their dresses from ASOS; the boys support Arsenal, Chelsea or Tottenham (if they are not so bright!). Their primary objectives are (1) encourage people to trade; (2) maximise the profit for the MM; (3) minimise the risk. One of them looks after PET with a few others stocks. Ready to mark up the price if the RNS is there. No RNS so watch out for sellers. A 15000 sell comes in five minutes before opening so mark the price down a bit. A few more sells so get the price down to prevent a flood. Oh good, some buyers around; in fact, getting a decent balance between buers and sellers. The day really goes quite smoothly. OK, there have been more buyers than sellers but trade has been OK, although not brilliant. MM has not been exposed financially. Really, the fact that the price is down on the day although buyers exceed sellers is irrelevant. Simple! No conspiracy! Nice people! Tomorrow is another day: the trading might follow a similar pattern, price down although buyers exceed sellers; it might be the inverse with initial buying, back above 100p, up although sellers exceed buyers. Oh, but there is the RNS!!! Panic stations! Push the price up fast to slow down the buying; how far does it have to go before Sandra takes some profits (oh! there's Eric! Tokyo and dexter are made of sterner stuff). Relief! here comes the sellers; down comes the price and a lovely balance ensues. In retrospect, there was a terrific spike but our lovely MM (the ASOS buyer and wearer!) has achieved a really good trading volume and her bosses have not been overly exposed!

Let me hasten to add that I'm not an MM nor have I been one, although I might well have enjoyed the job. But I am a student of human nature! Is this not how it goes?

Eric

Eric - nice piece thanks.

In fact I love the MMs. Someone has to do the job and it is done well from what I see.

My comments were not directed at them. But enough of that, I will continue to follow you fortunes albeit from the side lines. Good luck PET's.

well guys...if we are ever the supreme optimists, then by my reckoning tomorrrow is the last day of November unless of course the Iraqi Government have one of those strange calendars!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the other hand did they say which November???

Good luck all you PETS and get the prayer mat out tonight