I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

Sorry question didn't refer to UKC at all and I can't remember now which share it was maybe I should just crawl into my box either that or give up atching sooooooooooo many shares!

PT I hope you are trading some of these now.....as we discussed before.........you don't seem to be far wrong. All the best
Garfee

PT, I've now saved a TIFF a GIF and a BMP file to my desktop and I can't get either one to reproduce here. What I'm trying to do is demonstrate the Tate & Lyle chart and ask your opinion. I think I've identified two significant trend lines, one with four confirming touches in 2004 and the more recent, significant?? one with a whole bunch of touches in March this year and confirming touches in Feb/Mar 2003. Looks to me like we've strong support at 560 ish with an upside target of 800ish once the 660 resistance is out of the way.............wish I could do charts. What do you think Oh Mighty one??

garfee

Been out all day hacking around a rather good golf course, but spoiled by my rather feeble attempts. Will take a look at T&L and I think Fliper asked for one as well.

Maggie

Read EMG spot on, didn't think 600 would hold and a bounce from 588p as opposed to my predicted 592p (bugger 4p out). Wasn't expecting the volatility today though, but the markets are like that at the moment.

Unfortunately WNG fell back which came as a surprise, need to look at the RSI on that one and see where we are now.

Charts in a bit.

pth

EMG.

Depending on what happens tomorrow the steeper uptrend looks like it could be the 'right' trend for timing trades. 588p was the low of the day, which was a bit more movement than I expected, but it bounced right off the trendline and even recovered to sit on the 600p level. RSI is now sitting on rising support and not a lot to be gleaned from the MACD. The only other aspect I can draw attention to is the candle today which is more or less a 'long legged doji' a candle with a negligible body and equal upper and lower shadows. But all you have to know is that it reflects considerable indecision on the part of the market.

Difficult call tomorrow, personally I would be looking to go long, it was a good bounce today, but would wait for direction from the market to confirm a bounce off the RSI and also just in case there is a re-test of this channel.

pth

Evening pth,
Good thread and read,cheers.

Hi Mick, many thanks, good to see you still flying the flag for GON and MDW, you have the patience of a saint!! LoL.

WNG

Slightly disappointing dip for WNG, although not surprising considering the FTSE fall and the general volatility of this share. However, not all is yet lost; buy signal generated by the RSI has not failed just yet, today's retracement is now testing the signal which is not unusual. Often having broken through a res level, SPs then fall back and use the same res as support. Still waiting for the downtrend res on the RSI to be broken, which would add credibilty to any recovery. MACD signal is trying to cross up. This may be a good place to open a trade or perhaps add with a tight stop at 90p. Again look for direction in the morning before taking the plunge.

pth

lol,I do dabble else where but i'm rather fond of those two companies and following them closely over the years has given me a very good insight into the AIM and the way things work in the markets generally. All good fun.

Fantastic call PTH but unfortunately I have no patience and went back in today in shares It was just too tempting! but will wait for direction to make a spread bet now that i understand what you mean. One question - as the upper & lower rsi trend lines are going to meet could one conclude that it has to break out either way, soon, to create new trendlines?

Garfee - tate & Lyle.

First a description of the trendlines; The whie dashed uptrend point of origin is July 2005 (as is the green). The SP used this as support until the sell off at the beginning of this year when the stock 'gapped' through. You can see why the recovery in May stalled as this previous support turned into resistance (circled in white). Once gapping through a new shallower uptrend was established (green dashed line) and this has been tested on a few occasions to good effect. You can also see that a downtrend is evident from the Dec high. There is also historical SP resistance at 615p converging in roughly the same vicinity.

Effectively to overcome both of these the SP needs a good push with good volume. Although not shown on this screenshot, the On Balance Volume (smooths out the daily 'Manhattan' volume indicator to a single line) has been falling since the last high. Not sure it's ready to have another thrash yet at breaking up, there may be a little more weakness first. If going long stick a stop in around 550p-555p.

pth

Maggie, well it will break out one way or another but not necessarily to establish a new trend, but to confirm a direction, although this may be short term. Don't get to wrapped up with the RSI, I think it has its uses when above 70 and below 30 and also to determine a possible trend in the SP, but it can whipsaw around, so be careful in its use.

pth

PTH
I quite like the look of UNIQ chart, I've no idea what is driving it but as long as it trends up I'm happy. I'm no expert, but I agree with your post 144 about RSI, unless it is supported by other indicators it can be misleading. I believe UNIQ could be a case in point, where the RSI(14) of about 85 today is supported by momentum and divergence.

No charts tonight, too knackered after yet more golf, but a few updates.

SOLA - Quietly tracking up its rising support on very subdured volume. Wouldn't go long or go short at the moment, but would continue to sit still if a holder.

WNG - Despite today's fall after a positive start, the RSI failure Swing remains intact. Rising support at 92p, falls through there time to think again.

EMG - Bounced off the middle of the 'new channel' to return to slightly suspect support at 600p. The bottom of the rising channel is now at 594p, so keep an eye on that support. If that does fail, maybe a return to the original shallower channel with rising support at 572p.

SCHE - Was under the opinion that 600p was the next target, although not quite so sure now. Room for further gains on the RSI, but starting to bounce off MACD resistance, which continues to display considerable bearish divergence. This just has to be a short soon (famous last words).

TAN - Still trying to get through that 200p level. Now this won't be make me very popular with TAN holders and I can't reaaly explain why I think this is going to happen, except that the SP growth has been exceptional and there should be corrections every now and again. I did think that the SP would fall back a touch to the 180s before breaking 200p. Rather than falling back we have witnessed a consolidation in a tight range. Sticking my neck out an awful long way, TAN will either fail totally at 200p and fall back to 175p-180p or break through, stall at 207p-210p and then fall back to the same level. Don't listen to me though, this scenario might be nuts!

See what happens tomorrow :)

pth

Socs, totally agree. Have had a look at the UNIQ chart and you are right to like the look of it. Nice breakout above res levels established over the last year and a bit. RSI looking toppy now though at 80(20), a level it hasn't got through over the same period. Wouldn't short it just because of that though, but wouldn't be surprised to see some retracement back to the breakout level of 239p. Actually wish I had been looking at this chart in May when it broke through that downtrend. Nice 15% profit or so to be had from that level, but aint hindsight a wonderful thing :)

pth

Fliper

Regency Mines is a toughie, these tiddlers are quite difficult to predict, especially when one has just had a rocket up its arse! 1.5p to 8p is quite a rise and the trend is near vertical. Best I can do is suggest a retracement to somewhere in the region of 5p - 5.5p which eqautes to 50% of the last move, assuming of course that there is a retracement. Difficulty is wanting to be in, but not near the top, then the git carrys right on up. Personally, I've had enough of these real micro stocks and ending up locked in. I'm gonna stick with trending FTSE 100. 250, 350 type stufff, make 10% or so and move on. It will all add up!!

pth

Garfee

If you want to post charts, you need to find a site to host your files. I use 'photobucket.com'. Upload the file, copy the html code, click on the 'paste image' when adding a post here, paste, post mesage and hey presto!

pth

PTH,If you have any spare time I would be interested in your views on GON and MDW,chart wise.Feel free to post on thread or here,whether +/-,cheers in advance.

Also posted on the CSR thread (apologies for repitition, but the concept of identifying patterns that repeat themselves is an interesting one.

CSR - Will history repeat itself?

The basis of TA says it does, otherwise it wouldn't work.

CSR remains in its channel following the breakout from 800p but has run into stiff resistance at 910p - 920p, but where does it go next?

Fascinating stuff now; the rise in March and April has been exactly replicated by the latest rise, a move of 200p, the width of the channel and the gradient of the channel, even the time frame! What followed was a five week period of consolidation and an easing of the SP. I have replicated this period of consolidation (two rectangles) and superimposed on the chart. If history does repeat itself the SP will remain in this 'box' until late August where if finds support from the longer term trendline at 810p and then begins the next move up. We shall see.

In any event I'm now quite bearish on CSR in the short term; there is little room for any sizeable rise on the RSI; as can be seen, the uptrend support is converging on resistance and although it could happen, CSR just doesn't like to be above 70, so I would expect this RSI support to be broken in due course. MACD is also toppy and looks like it might be turning down. Confirmation of consolidation rather than a breakout through 900p will be confirmed if the uptrend channel support is broken, which is at 855p, so watch this level.

Wondering if EMG is going to fall back into the shallower channel at 571p or even fall as far as the 200MA at 540p, think my guess would be the shallower channel.

pth