The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Tokyo,
I'm staying in too.
Couldn't bear to lose out now, just because of nerves.
We just have to sit tight and wait.....
Sabine

Tokyo and dexter.

You two are still doing a great job despite the fact that you were in relatively early. I really listen to the golden silence! There is only one reason for silence from PET and that is that they are doing the bidding of the IOM. It doesn't mean its cut and dried because the IOM could be having problems of their own: justifying their selection? coping with today's problems? not happy with some aspect(s) of the bid? last minute temptations from an oil major? As I see it, we are still on an 80% probability of a super outcome but we all know things can go belly up in that sort of situation. It has to be seen as risk part of your portfolio. It must not be curtains for me and my future as an investor if its curtains for the contract. If anyone is over-exposed, then I would suggest cutting the holding to an amount you can cope with. That is just common sense.

Eric

good post eric,
thanks for your kind words,
at least being in early, it gives you a bit of a cushion if it did all go belly up..... not tha it will !!!.
dexter

i am in a position where i am able to have my pc on all day at work with money am and my on-line brokerage side to side. Should anything dramatic happen i am able to react. i have sat and watched so many 'tree shakes' that i percieve today to be following suit. This is nervousness based on the fact tomorrow is the last day in November! i am not willing to lose on this stock nor am i going to get out before it all takes off! A fine line indeed!

Perhaps the article implied that PET were making such statements *before* October, hence the price-rise back then. Not trying to de-ramp but...?

Eric - I agree the silence is golden, Why be sworn to secrecy if there is no secret to be kept. We seen that they had to resubmit their tender after the talks in Jordan, so really we are waiting for the outcome, none of us know what they talked about, was it risk/sharing or was it the joining of companies to work on these projects? All we do know is that PET are very confident and are doing what the MOO has ordered them to, and keep quiet. Everything we have is pointing to a positive result, lets just hope it is so!!!

Tokyo

does anyone look at www.platts.com , it`s free to register and seems that it could be quite interesting. i`ve only just signed up so have`nt had chance to read too muc as yet.
typical tree shake, everyone hold on!, the MM`s want your stock.
dexter

gonna check that out now dexter

this is taken from platts, reading the figures it would be madness for the IOM to delay these or any other contracts. seeing as the contracts PET have gone for are some of the first, the sooner the oil flows, the sooner the majors will want a piece of the action, either with PET or in other areas of iraq.


The value of Iraq's own revenues

On the plus side, there is one prospective gain: high oil prices could bring increased oil revenues. This is a complex matter since the degree to which high oil prices are predicated on Iraqi instability is itself a major factor in determining the impact on Iraqi oil revenues. If the country is stable, it will contribute to a substantial lowering of oil prices, with an adverse impact on revenues; if it is unstable, prices may be high but it may not be able to get its oil to market. With uncertainty governing both the price that Iraqi oil might command and the amount of oil that it might be able to export, it makes sense to look at Iraqi oil exports revenue prospects in very broad terms.

In general, at oil prices of $35/bbl, Iraq stands to secure $1.067.5-bil in foreign exchange earnings every month for every 1-mil bbl of oil exported. At $30/bbl, it earns $915-mil/month; at $25/bbl, earnings slip to $762.5-bil/month; and at $20 it earns $610-mil.

Under current circumstances, with oil prices well above $35/bbl, with production capacity at around 2.4-mil b/d (actual oil production totaled 2.38-mil b/d in April) and with Iraq itself consuming some 600,000 b/d, Iraq might reasonably expect to secure around $1.92-bil in foreign exchange earnings in May. (Such figures only yield foreign exchange earnings, they do not take into account the costs of producing the oil or getting it to market).

Given that it may now no longer be possible to make even reasonable predictions concerning future Iraqi export levels, prospective annual Iraqi oil export earnings can best be indicated as follows.

Table: Indicative Iraqi Oil Export Earnings

For production levels of 2.5-mil b/d and export levels of 1.9-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $13.9-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.3-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.8-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $24.3-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $27.7-bil.

For production levels of 3.0-mil b/d and export levels of 2.35-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $17.2-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $21.4-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.0-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $34.3-bil.

For production levels of 3.5-mil b/d and export levels of 2.8-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $20.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $25.6-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $30.7-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.8-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.

For production levels of 4.0-mil b/d and export levels of 3.2-mil b/d:
At:
$20/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $23.4-bil.
$25/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $29.2-bil.
$30/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $35.0-bil.
$35/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $40.9-bil.
$40/bbl annual foreign exchange earnings would total $46.7-bil.

Beat me to it!!!!! funny how there are more Buys than Sells and the sp is still down. Then again this is only activity that the MM's have engineered imo.

Just in case it has not been said?

PRE took a hammering today!

PET have the same board, (near as), and CEO.

They are obviously being blamed for the debacle following yards of spin in the RNS's for the latest drill at Danbury Dome by PRE.

I suspect the drop in PET today, albeit small, is a reflection on PET from PRE.

Just a thought.

I no longer hold.

Good luck peps.......

gre and seawallwalker

I think this point needs to be made. Its so easy to see the MMs as the enemy. Perhaps its better to treat them as friends. They are really nice people; they are doing this job to earn their living; the girls get their dresses from ASOS; the boys support Arsenal, Chelsea or Tottenham (if they are not so bright!). Their primary objectives are (1) encourage people to trade; (2) maximise the profit for the MM; (3) minimise the risk. One of them looks after PET with a few others stocks. Ready to mark up the price if the RNS is there. No RNS so watch out for sellers. A 15000 sell comes in five minutes before opening so mark the price down a bit. A few more sells so get the price down to prevent a flood. Oh good, some buyers around; in fact, getting a decent balance between buers and sellers. The day really goes quite smoothly. OK, there have been more buyers than sellers but trade has been OK, although not brilliant. MM has not been exposed financially. Really, the fact that the price is down on the day although buyers exceed sellers is irrelevant. Simple! No conspiracy! Nice people! Tomorrow is another day: the trading might follow a similar pattern, price down although buyers exceed sellers; it might be the inverse with initial buying, back above 100p, up although sellers exceed buyers. Oh, but there is the RNS!!! Panic stations! Push the price up fast to slow down the buying; how far does it have to go before Sandra takes some profits (oh! there's Eric! Tokyo and dexter are made of sterner stuff). Relief! here comes the sellers; down comes the price and a lovely balance ensues. In retrospect, there was a terrific spike but our lovely MM (the ASOS buyer and wearer!) has achieved a really good trading volume and her bosses have not been overly exposed!

Let me hasten to add that I'm not an MM nor have I been one, although I might well have enjoyed the job. But I am a student of human nature! Is this not how it goes?

Eric

Eric - nice piece thanks.

In fact I love the MMs. Someone has to do the job and it is done well from what I see.

My comments were not directed at them. But enough of that, I will continue to follow you fortunes albeit from the side lines. Good luck PET's.

well guys...if we are ever the supreme optimists, then by my reckoning tomorrrow is the last day of November unless of course the Iraqi Government have one of those strange calendars!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the other hand did they say which November???

Good luck all you PETS and get the prayer mat out tonight

Ok granted no rns tomorrow and share price fall to 80p! If you think you are clever will want to sell to save yourself say 15p/a share. Tempting, hey? Especially for me who hold 66000 pets. So will save myself just over 5000. Much more tempting yumyumyum.

Wrong, because once tomorrow, end of November, is over then RNS will be out any day after that. I will not be able to buy back pre market at 80p + at least 50p; take away 15p and will end up unnecessarily paying 35p per share extra than if I had stayed put. In money terms I will have lost exactly 24,850 (35p x 66000). Now that is a rosy scenario. Going by the market size in the last few weeks, especially on the previous update, I will only be able 2/3000 shares. If I want my 66000 pets back, I will have to continuously top up (or pay a huge premium) by which time I will have paid an extra 1 say for the remaining 20000 shares to take me back to my 66000. Now how much will I have unnecessarily paid extra? I don't want to know, cause very unpleasant indeed even though it is just an imaginary scenario now. Therefore I am staying put come what may.

The scenario above applies to any holding however small it is!

Remember, we are not here for price fluctuation, BUT FOR the CONTRACT (S).

And contract(s) rns, it will be any day after tomorrow. You don't swear a company to secrecy if you 'give' no secret (sorry contract) to keep. Plus, Iraqis in Dublin, no update. DH and 7 Pet executives in Amman, no update. Now if they had got nothing from the Iraqis, it is against the LSE and SFA rules not to say so especially in the light of the Iraqis/encounters cited above, not to say of the positive updates. That would just be MISLEADING and suicidal not only for DH but also for John Teeling, who has a reputation and personal business to protect, since he also the chairman of at least 3 other companies. DH is also director in other companies. What would the city make of them? Youve guessed it.!

But would sp tank tomorrow? Extremely unlikely. The derampers (+ the mms) want to rattle some week holders so that they get in on the cheap and one would cancel out the other, and therefore no big change really. Possible rise tomorrow (or the day after) even without rns. Either tomorrow or once tomorrow is over, then it could be any ONE day after that. And those who were a bit reluctant to jump on board, will be tempted to do so on t10/t20, cause to them 'it could be any day now'. All this if no rns tomorrow.

Happy to hold even if I were to be guarranteed the price will drop by 50p and save myself that 50p!

Good Luck Pet Lovers and let's fight off the derampers as we have always done it successfully!

ps. Remember the richest & the best investor of all time, Warren Buffet, made his money by being PATIENT!

Eric and hemacik16, mant thanks for your heart warming posts. I have and will hold, but just get a little cynical at times (in my nature)thats cynical but not pessimistic, hopeful as always.

Morning all,
The MM`s are just trying to stir up business by forcingthe weaker holders out, don`t fall for it!,
Dexter

Morning all!

I have a feeling buyers will beat the mms by close. There is no logical reason why not to jump on board after end of november is over, cause rns could be any ONE day after today!

Noboby has posted this, over on fillyaboots one of the posters went to see DH last night, here are his observations (only wish I could have gone myself)

Hi All,

Went to Trinity tonight. Although secretly dreaming/wishing, it never was my expectation to enter a situation where I would have a chance to try get some factual information. So to Mbthedude : Sorry, on this platform it would have been totally out of context to pop the question of announcement or the likes. It was never going to be answered, would only have been irritating to DH as well as appr. 300 persons involved in serious discussion.
So that leaves me with my original motivation to go there tonight : Just see if there would be anything to read in DHs presentation or, more likely, his body language.

I think we all agree that this has to be a deciding moment in DHs life.
Especially now at end November (also taking into account some worrying press on our board today), I would expect either a very tensed, or worried, or hopefully rather relaxed person. : If you would more or less know that you were close to losing a life-changing contract, it just has to show. I fully respect sprocket's opinion on DHs character and capability in discussions and negotiations : I have seen the prove of that tonight. HOWEVER : Observing DH very intensively throughout the evening : he IS NOT worried at this particular moment in time, that is for sure !!!
He came into the hall extremely relaxed, waiting for the start of the debate while talking very amicably with the organizers and participants for over 20 minutes, did not loose for 1 second his smile, and everything in him told me it was not an appearance smile.
He then delivered a very good presentation in relaxed way (prepared, but not reading from), and participated voluntarily with some answers by the panel.
Unfortunately, when the debate was finished he was fully surrounded by organizers and debaters, still involved in heavy but friendly discussions on tonights topic, so I had no realistic opportunity to get a private moment with him, under the circumstances it would have been counter-productive.
In his presentation he briefly mentioned that he was at this moment involved in some tenders, stating that you cant do a side-deal with competitors, first of all because nobody would trust each other, secondly because its against the law.

I realize that also the information above does not carry much weight in possible decisions for your own plans on the shares. But my opinion : at no time during the evening did DH make the slightest worried or negative impression.

PS. On future oil-prices : After tonight's debate I can tell you : NO way that oil-prices could drop from here on

Guys for those that can, check out advfn. Citywhispers has just posted some e-mails from PET. For those that know Citywhispers, you will know that he would post anything fake, but for those that don't please feel free to check these out with DH, as they simply show that Dome and Petrom are out of the running, and by my counts that really only leaves PET of the companies that we knew about.

Here are the e-mails

----- Original Message -----
From: David Horgan
**********************
Sent: 25 November 2004 10:00
Subject: DOME


*****
Anyone who believes such silly stories shouldn't be in speculative shares.
Dome is a fine company based in Dubai. They are bidding on Subba & Luhais - not on the first two.
S&L have not completed technical review - so they cannot have signed a contract on this - though they may be doing something completely separate.

David Horgan.

________________________________


To: David Horgan
Subject: Re: DOME

ADVFN

cat100 - 23 Nov'04 - 14:06 - 35411 of 35412

Hate to burst everyones bubble Just sold pet 10000 @ 1.0275 bought @ 1.08 yesterday. Phoned Dome and after talking to sec. she put me through to someone and he said that they signed contracts in Iraq two weeks ago. He sounded concerned and kept asking me who I was. I just kept saying yes to him as if I couldnt understand him. He told me to ring back tomorrow when his boss would be back. I try d to find out as much as I could about dome and they look well suited to these contracts. The min. for oil in Iraq was greeted by a UAE minister at the meeting today.The UAE comfirmed that they are to invest a huge amount of money and are taking 350 people to train for the oil business. The dip in pet.s share price coincides with the time frame of these contracts supposedly been signed.About 5,000,000 shares where traded no one been to greedy . Now Dome havent announced any thing yet so thats good butthe man I talked to did say contracts . Its made things to tight for me knowing that some of the pie is gone so I am out. I did say I was going to short this stock a while ago but it was beyond me how to do it. Hope that Pet do get a contract as they have been good to me in the past and no one ends up living in a box as has been stated by some GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
PS phone dome if you dont belive me I phoned their U A E office


----- Original Message -----
From: David Horgan
**********************
Sent: 25 November 2004 10:00
Subject: DOME


*****
Anyone who believes such silly stories shouldn't be in speculative shares.
Dome is a fine company based in Dubai. They are bidding on Subba & Luhais - not on the first two.
S&L have not completed technical review - so they cannot have signed a contract on this - though they may be doing something completely separate.

David Horgan.

________________________________


To: David Horgan
Subject: Re: DOME

ADVFN

cat100 - 23 Nov'04 - 14:06 - 35411 of 35412

Hate to burst everyones bubble Just sold pet 10000 @ 1.0275 bought @ 1.08 yesterday. Phoned Dome and after talking to sec. she put me through to someone and he said that they signed contracts in Iraq two weeks ago. He sounded concerned and kept asking me who I was. I just kept saying yes to him as if I couldnt understand him. He told me to ring back tomorrow when his boss would be back. I try d to find out as much as I could about dome and they look well suited to these contracts. The min. for oil in Iraq was greeted by a UAE minister at the meeting today.The UAE comfirmed that they are to invest a huge amount of money and are taking 350 people to train for the oil business. The dip in pet.s share price coincides with the time frame of these contracts supposedly been signed.About 5,000,000 shares where traded no one been to greedy . Now Dome havent announced any thing yet so thats good butthe man I talked to did say contracts . Its made things to tight for me knowing that some of the pie is gone so I am out. I did say I was going to short this stock a while ago but it was beyond me how to do it. Hope that Pet do get a contract as they have been good to me in the past and no one ends up living in a box as has been stated by some GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
PS phone dome if you dont belive me I phoned their U A E office


----- Original Message -----
From: David Horgan
To: \*******
Sent: 23 November 2004 16:15
Subject: RE: PETROM


Petrom was an early contender but apparently did not make it through the technical review.
OMV has been to Iraq pre-war but was last there in 2002.
Dome is small but has some excellent people and is well connected.