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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 29 Oct 2007 18:29 - 1336 of 1564

i do not ask what you are doing with your hands, but a short of either Dow or FTSE to protect your long portfolio at least in part is not a bad strategy

HARRYCAT - 29 Oct 2007 20:20 - 1337 of 1564

Is that the 'Burning Bush' ? If so might sell everything!
Any other kind of bush & will be content to hold. :o)

I was really trying to guage opinions on whether Fed rate would change or not.
It would seem that half a point down would see the DOW & FTSE reach unprecedented highs. Assuming we are going to see yet more fallout from the sub-prime fiasco in the coming months, this could be my only opportunity to feather my nest (as opposed to my bush).

cynic - 30 Oct 2007 05:00 - 1338 of 1564

it seems to me that the markets are already anticipating an awful lot of good news -too much in my opinion.

Darradev - 30 Oct 2007 07:45 - 1339 of 1564

Morning Mr C. Can appreciate the sentiments. thanks.

Darradev - 30 Oct 2007 07:52 - 1340 of 1564

Morning Harry, I believe that there are still a lot of people out there wanting to burn the 'George W' variety.

As Mr C says, there seems to be a bit too much anticipation of good news and not enough downside planning. Make hay while the sun shines.... but keep your waterpoofs ready.

cynic - 30 Oct 2007 08:00 - 1341 of 1564

am taking money off the table this morning and am already running a small Dow short which i shall prob increase

steveo - 30 Oct 2007 08:32 - 1342 of 1564

Brave move cynic, in the short term (next 2 weeks) at least. Certainly not for medium term (next 2 months)

I prefer the long and short option with tight stop losses. I expect a 25 basis point cut, 50 points would cause fresh highs then reality would sink in and the bear run on the dow will probably gain momentum.

Results have been favourable this last week in US, but economic data is becoming increasingly gloomy, we are nearing the top in the US.

Follow that with some position covering, by sell off in asia, add afew automated stop losses and we have a major correction.

Falcothou - 30 Oct 2007 08:58 - 1343 of 1564

Makes you wonder whether the average American would be better off with the savings on their mortgages by a cut than with the resultant increased fuel charges for their enormous SUV's, or are thet all driving Smart cars and prius's these days?

Falcothou - 30 Oct 2007 13:46 - 1344 of 1564

Seems to be a lot of holders ditching gold before this fed decision

HARRYCAT - 30 Oct 2007 15:57 - 1345 of 1564

What's the logic behind that? I thought Gold was a safe haven in times of trouble.

Falcothou - 30 Oct 2007 16:52 - 1346 of 1564

Gold follows oil and opposes the dollar as well as acting as a hedge against inflation. If Fed rates stay the same gold will plunge from its recent stellar run. People are taking profits beforehand. check out thebulliondesk.com if interested

BigTed - 30 Oct 2007 19:19 - 1347 of 1564

whats the date for fed rate decision?

cynic - 30 Oct 2007 19:42 - 1348 of 1564

tomorrow i think - i.e. halloween

Falcothou - 31 Oct 2007 07:47 - 1349 of 1564

At 1815 gmt today. Bloomberg last night quoted 94% chance of 25% , 6% chance 50%. 0% chance unchanged and said a 50% change might be an admission that things were much worse than previously thought, best to go with the flow whatever the reaction

HARRYCAT - 31 Oct 2007 12:22 - 1350 of 1564

DOW futures were down 29 points when I checked mid morning. Now they are +39.
Although no one actually knows what is going to happen, sentiment seems to have changed from negative to positive. Am hoping my 'Sell nothing & pray' strategy is going to pay off.

cynic - 31 Oct 2007 12:26 - 1351 of 1564

don't care! ..... my money still says that by the end of Dow trading tonight, it will be down and perhaps quite heavily, though perhaps a jump in the meantime ...... anticipation and arrival and all that stuff!

HARRYCAT - 31 Oct 2007 13:02 - 1352 of 1564

"Don't care"!!! Did I touch a nerve there for those shorting the DOW?

cynic - 31 Oct 2007 13:12 - 1353 of 1564

not at all ...... though my DOW short was nicely in the money first thing this morning, it is now only marginally out of it ...... I "don't care" because i actually think that is the right stance to have, and if it is not, then my other stocks will benefit, even though i have already encashed a bit as a precaution

Kivver - 31 Oct 2007 14:05 - 1354 of 1564

Would all the bears agree, that overall this year the trend is UP (like I and others have said it would be :0))!!!!

cynic - 31 Oct 2007 14:22 - 1355 of 1564

again, don't care as have made money in both directions depending on the prevailing trend or impetus
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