ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

eric, ptholden, you're both right in terms of the vertical axis of the chart on which I agree with you. I'm just considering more the horizontal axis - time! I think eric's fundamentals and my own expectations where we will be by Xmas coincide, subject to any adverse news not yet in the price. But do disagree there is any particular "support" at 48p - that's just where we ended up after a bad day. It could dip worse or it could not - quite impossible to say - before it goes up again, which I am prepared to predict.

So I'm just groping at any indicators that will tell me where the bottom of the market is to buy most efficiently linked with some assurance that it will not fall back again almost immediately.

SD

SD

With regard to support I was not looking at yesterday in particular, but more the Support established April (ish) last year. One may argue that has decayed somewhat, but perhaps still relevant. I think we are probably arguing about when to buy and not if! I'll stick a pound on a spread bet today and see what happens!!

Regards

PTH

keep meaning to find the time to organise a spreadbetting service - which ones are best? - but always too many posts to read and answer.

I have two accounts, one with Finspreads and the other IGIndex. The latter seem to cover a much greater range of products and in particular shares, although I am led to believe IG do not offer the best spreads.

Min bet size was a fiver for ASOS, so I'm off and running!

Regards

PTH

Well the 2*200K BUYS will certainly help the share price motor UP. Last time it was fidelity increasing their stake, could well be FIDELITY INCREASING their stake again....

watch this space.....topped up with some more this afternoon :)

ptholden - what views do you have on CMC - trading as Deal For Free, I think. They gave a presentation at the recent Traders Day. They claim to have the finest spreads and a unique rolling daily spread where you can run the bet over several days either paying a little interest (longs) or receiving a good deal less (shorts).

My own analysis is that the initial margin is irrelevant as a measure of cost of the bet (that's the big con for the innocent, letting them think their initial margin is the cost of the bet - IMHO). The risk is the amount you stand to lose if the SP falls (rises) to your guaranteed stop loss (which you must always use). So first calculate your stop loss price, then divide this difference from the strike price into the amount you are prepared to bet to give you the value per point you are betting. Close the bet when you have made your preset profit, however much further it might have gone.

Divide your capital at any one time into 10 portions, only betting 1/10 of it at each time, so that you can sustain several losing bets in a row if necessary. Each time take 1/10 of whatever remains (or has now increased) of your capital.

If you win/lose 50% of the time and only bet when there is a chance that your win can be at least, say, 2.5 times your stop loss, but in practice you achieve only 1.5 times, then on average you should nearly double your capital every 40 bets, no matter in which order you actually win or lose any given sequence of bets.

If you start with 1,000 and make one bet 200 days a year, after one year you should have about 31,000. If you manage to improve you wins to 2 X your stop loss, then you will make about 2.1m in a year - easy-peasy!

Plan the trade and trade the plan. Are these the rules you play by?

The one aspect I need practice at is how far away from spot price the book-makers tend to set the strike price. Presumably if we all know the FTSE is going to fall from 4950, then the strike price will be down at 4890/95 or something before you start. Is this correct?

One day I shall find the time to set up an account and start dabbling.

One last question - are spreadbets better/easier/more profitable than CFD's or what?

SD

sd: haven't seen a comparison and haven't looked seriously at spreadbetting. A key argument for CFDs is that it is very like trading the share except with a multiple built in which increases the expected profit (or loss) by that multiple. No doubt, some of the same principles apply: e.g. the 2.5:1 ratio of stop losses to target price; I would use 3:1 on CFDs. It might be helpful to think through a scenario for spreadbetting with ASOS and I can then respond with the CFD scenario. Suggest take an example based on todays closing spread and think the actions through.

Eric

Eric, currently I can't see how CFD's are worth it (being taxable and a more complex instrument) when you can roll-over spreadbets for as many days as you like. CFD's as opposed to spreadbetting strike me as a little like compuserve to other ISP's - they were there first when technology was a tad more cumbersome, but are now rather left behind. Don't mean to belittle your favourtie instrument which evidently serves you well, but if you were to start again from scratch (or even with a slight handicap - golfing joke) would you not go for the simplicity of spreadbetting?

You're absolutely right about the 3:1 potential - it is after all completely a percentage play that the 50% of the time you win is worth enough more thatn the other 50% of losing bets to make it worth the candle.

The best stocks are those with an established wave propgression through an upward or downward channel linked with added momentum from the general market indices in the same direction. Then you can really time the tops and bottoms to place your shorts and longs respectively.

all the best from your ever-woolly (never been squelched (yet!))
ramblerrambler

Need i say more? ASOS.com get it's HIGHEST EVER ranking

jusk looking to invest in ASC hopefully around the 45p mark... just have one concern: Cant ASOS be sued for copying desigs (as in copying clothes that celebs wear?)
E.g Monsoon sueing Primark over skirt design!!!

I may be totally out of the picture but would be gr8 if neone can clarify?

My guess is that the web traffic is up because they are having another 75% off sale.

Still selling furry boots, which doesn't really strike me as a summer item and it strikes me that they may be getting rid of lines prior to the warehouse move. Also, they are offering free delivery on sales over 40 again.

Overall, makes me think that margins are continuing to be hit - I think things the margins will pick up after september for the second half of the year.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-38-1578140,00.html

Jacques Vert rose 1p at 15p as its top three directors bought a combined 390,660 shares at 14p under an executive share-matching scheme. Asos eased p at 49p, despite talk that recent trading at the online fashion retailer has been STRONG.

Hitwise just done a report on the apparel & accessories category for UK online traffic. Next remains no.1 with a market share of 8.29%, with ASOS 2nd at 3.87%. ASOS' position has strengthened having slugged it out for 2nd place in throughout most of 2004 with La Redoute, Additions Direct and Figleaves. ASOS has been no.2 every month since November 2004.

Apparel & accessories enjoyed stronger growth in 2004 than many other retail categories In March 05 the category enjoyed 14% year on year growth in MARKET SHARE of visits. So ASOS is gaining an increasing share in a segment that is grabbing an larger share of overall internet traffic, which is itself growing fast thanks to increasing penetration of broadband. Not too shabby. Not too shabby at all. If they get their infrastructure sorted out, improve the sharpness of their buying (too much stuff has to be discounted at the moment) and keep signing strong partnerships like the Now! magazine tie up then this is an absolute winner.

marketmaker all comes down to margins the hitwise figs can be misleading which they were before xmas .cheers woodie

Woodie, margins are vital in the end for profits, agreed. But meanwhile, I don't mind a bit of emphasis on penetration to set them up well for the new season of stock from the new warehouse.

Another stock that needs to tell a better story and see its SP react before it will attract many new friends onto the share register currently.

But I continue to hold until that happy day.

SD

Thanks, marketmaker - helpful and factual comments. Me and my doggie friend are in the same basket (if not boat) and happy to wait for profit recovery to Q2 of current year with new warehouse in place. Think sp will recover once our awareness is shared.

Eric

sidtrix: An answer to your query in post 1355 appears on P3 of today's Torygraph. It seems that the LVMH group - Louis Vuitton, Dior, Givenchy and Celine are among those planning to take on the imitators. Good news for the lawyers but possibly not for investors. I'm sticking to CSB, GMC and FSJ etc for the present, and watching ASC (and this thread) from the sidelines.
sd.

http://www.nowmagazineoffers.com/asos/

Thanks, marketmaker. A nice bit of image building with NOW and Champneys.

The present sp doesn't hold any hostages to fortune. cap. down to 35m. Recent broker forecasts for current year are pretty close: Seymour Pierce quoting eps of 3p on pre-tax 2.25m and Shore Capital 3.3p on 2.20m. That's a pe of around 11. On the fairly reasonable assumption that therevenue growth is continuing at 50%+ the sp is very low and both brokers haev the share as a BUY (recent forecasts).

No quarterly trading statement which is not surprising. Reasonable to assume that waiting for warehouse to be implemented first. Last year's prelims were 30th June so it may be have to wait until then, but I feel something later this month is mroe likely. I am assuming there is no rush but may be caught out!

Eric