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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 08:16 - 138 of 1029

Falco .... it's not so much the cost of a HIP but the actual value of them - and how long are they valid for? - and of course the lack of suitably qualified people, for it is not a job for normal surveyor.

of more use, to my mind, would be the adoption of the Scottish system, whereby if you put in a firm bid, it is legally binding on both parties.

Strawbs - 18 Sep 2007 08:17 - 139 of 1029

You did mention it on here yesterday..... :-P

Looks like BB. and NRK have recovered a little too. I guess the chancellors blank cheque has helped.....

Strawbs.

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 08:25 - 140 of 1029

Cynic,
Not that I would normally disagree with you, ;-) , but the Scottish system has the effect of magnifying house price booms. The very thing most on here seem to complain about.
The reason is very simple. Every time one puts an offer in, it must be through a solicitor and you must have had a survey done and mortgage offer in place. This costs as much as 2000 per offer and so a young couple looking to buy a flat in Glasgow see their deposit eaten away every time an offer fails, so eventually they decide that offering considerably more than the asking price is the only way to stop throwing 2 grand away every couple of weeks.
This is why most Scottish properties are on sale at "offers over".
Much prefer the English system, which will improve, BTW, as electronic storage and communications improve to the point where sale to completion is down to a week at most. Mortgage offers can already be produced in 30 minutes from application, and deeds are online. It is just the sales particulars and searches that are now a stumbling block. And idle solicitors, of course.
Alan

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 08:37 - 141 of 1029

Alan - many thanks for the clarification; as so often i was talking with a certain amount of ignorance, which i know will come as a great surprise to you! ...... in truth, it is the legally binding aspect of the scottish system that appeals, not least because it puts a halt to gazumping, to revive a fave word of the 70s, and the seller also knows where he stands - suppose i should say it stands in today's nauseously pc world!

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 08:42 - 142 of 1029

Not suprised - shocked!! ;-)
Gazumping (or more likely gazundering) will haunt us for some time yet, but the seeds are sown for a market without these things.
In truth our system has been drying out for years for something to change and I prefer a pre contract contract.
Simply an exchange of letters of intent, as any business would do. I will buy / sell at x price providing certain conditions are met and this agreement shall expire on xx date.
Works for me, but estate agents and solicitors hate the idea. It might cost 'em a few quid.
Alan

Guscavalier - 18 Sep 2007 09:02 - 143 of 1029

hewittalan6 - not everyone is a clear thinking financially as you. The credit card system and mortgage system has been a nightmare for some people, especially the gullable, encouraged to take out mortgages far in excess of what they can afford. I am not saying that a free market should not exist. In my opinion, the free market has been distorted by excessive unaffordable credit. You said Lamont, I didn't. I never thought much of him.

Stan - 18 Sep 2007 09:20 - 144 of 1029

Agree with HA, if people can't afford something and they buy it, sooner or later they will have to give it back.

How is this not understood?

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 09:22 - 145 of 1029

Because society has put forward the idea that home ownership is a right, not a privelidge. (sorry, can't spell)
Crap.

Stan - 18 Sep 2007 09:26 - 146 of 1029

Yes, peoples "expectations" unrealistic in today's low wage ageist society, oh yes and a little bit of greed in there as well.

maggiebt4 - 18 Sep 2007 13:10 - 147 of 1029

Surely one must also consider the unbelievable price of houses. Here in NI house prices have doubled in the last 2 years partly to do with developers buying and holding property Young people can't afford to buy the doors and windows at 3 times their salary so what are they to do? My daughter & husband lost approx 100 000 because the vendor pulled out of the sale at the last min Scottish system would have been better in this case - they lost surveyors fees etc anyway and were homeless and by the time they found something else house prices had risen. I think most people now look on home ownership as a luxury, young people are being priced out of the market - rant over!!!!

hangon - 18 Sep 2007 13:27 - 148 of 1029

Stan: - Great expectations are good, surely?
- - - - The alternative --- is economic reverse - - -
Aren't Mortgages are always more than you can afford? - because you want that "extra room", or maybe it's "the garage" - or any number of features that appeal to young couples.
If you work and have prospects the repayments are not a serious issue....indeed in five years' time you'll be wondering why you didn't have a double garage!
NRK is not alone in giving mortgages that are borderline - it all depends on the probability of a rate-hike and most try to ignore it.
If the rate is fixed for two years, there is a good chance you'll meet any increase with a better job, promotion, or a beneficial strike!

I think the whole NRK debacle is down to Politicians wanting to be seen as "Firm" against inflation, whilst bashing reckless investors (always a good party line, until you realise the Unions are investors too!)....and singling out NRK for a BoE loan just made everyone (with deposits) sit up and fear the worst.

The media fanned the situation by publishing photos of queues - rather than looking at the underlying finances, which appear (at this moment) to be perfectly reasonable... They lend, they borrow - provided the rates show a profit.....where is the problem?
It is entirely a manufactured problem, to fill front pages and occupy news slots.
Just a month ago NRK was 6 =trading about its NAV ( always difficult to determine, but they are "owners" of many properties, at least until the Mortgage is repaid)...so at the moment you can pick up a share at 50% discount...looks good to me and I bought some yesterday. If people look at reality I think they will see Politicians were posturing, for political gain that fell far sort of prudence.

Oh yes, I know debt is a problem and many folk are paying too much on store-cards. it's true house prices might fall - but we aren't losing jobs like we did in the Thatcher years (indeed we'd been doing it for decades after the War)....and weekly reports were of factories closing, jobs going abroad etc. THIS is NOT happening in the same way now. Many of our jobs are finance-based and many are relyant upon slightly dodgy deals....but IMHO the Public is not (yet) fearful of losing their job, or their home as a result. Provided interest rates are not increased it's possible to slow the economy down, whilst folk maintain repayments.
If they can do that, their long-term savings can collect interest and everyone sleeps well.
IMHO, It was political stupidity that rocked the boat and NRK in particular.

[[EDIT:Just caught the BBC News - there is a move in NE England to restore NRK confidence by opening an a/c with 2000 . . . to restore NRK's charitable model which has benefited the region greatly... ((Worth checking BBC website))..]]

Stan - 18 Sep 2007 14:35 - 149 of 1029

What I was trying to say is that peoples expectations are now unrealistic given the low wage, ageist economy the majority of the population keeps on voting for since the days of Thatcher. And where did you get the word "Great' from? Blame the Media if you like but sooner or later people might start to looking nearer to home.

hangon - 18 Sep 2007 15:39 - 150 of 1029

- DON'T DESPAIR -
If you can't find NRK in the "Winners" (today Tuesday, up 11% so far!)..
The software seems to be displaying NRK in the "Losers" listing and showing 30%-odd fall -!!!
Seems the MonayAM software can't cope with bad news and has stuck with yesterday's figures....oh dear.
I tried telephoning the Office, but it's on ans m/c......maybe others are bending their ear, too.
(ends)

Stan, =- from Dickens.
+ I agree there were things wrong during Thatcher, but before her the country was a hostage to Unions....strikes were common and wage inflation was caused by disruption... She made people realise that to get on you had to be part of the solution. Because she had North Sea Oil she could close the mines and that started to repair the economy (although not for mining communities).
The Yuppie-culture was an excess in the other direction, where earnings were linked to the size of the lie...er, IMHO.
But having expectations of a better future is surely everyone's goal; for their chuildren, even if they missed it themselves?
Can you explain the ageist economy mentioned? As an elderly white male I have grown to accept my place...bottom...all women are higher up, retire earlier live longer, enjoy children and grandchildren. Other minorities have special status to achieve employment and so on. Oh Yes, I know my place.

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 16:02 - 151 of 1029

i have special status to achieve employment .... it's called running your own biz, but then no one else in the right mind would employ me .......as for women on top; well i have no great objection to that either!

Guscavalier - 18 Sep 2007 16:10 - 152 of 1029

hangon- you have well thought out views. The polititions made the position worse and would have been better leaving the BOE to sort out the situation. Of course polititions have to meddle and give 100% backing, their political futures are at stake.

cynic - 18 Sep 2007 16:17 - 153 of 1029

in this instance especially, BoE and the politicians HAD to work together ..... whether or not the correct decisions have been made and/or whether or not there should have been action sooner will only show in time, perhaps 1/2/3 years hence

Guscavalier - 18 Sep 2007 16:42 - 154 of 1029

it will be very interesting to see whether King is reappointed as Governor after his current tenure expires next year. I dont think he would of liked to provide the 100% backing. It may give him less room for manoeuvre in future if further problems evolve. Who knows it could well result in him to walking away at some stage.

hewittalan6 - 18 Sep 2007 16:50 - 155 of 1029

Had notification this afternoon that Kensington are all but pulling out of the ub prime market. For the time being.
They are only really lending on prime terms.
The sub prime stuff is still available but at very restricted loan to value and with artificially high rates that make them about as unattractive as it is possible to be.
Closing the doors on its main market in all but name.
Not saying how long for, but I suspect it will be until the LIBOR markets normalise and the sub prime crisis blows over.
Alan

hangon - 18 Sep 2007 17:55 - 156 of 1029

Do we (here) think NRK is a good buy at these levels? - that has to be our focus - up 8.5% today, so it's just over the 3-level, I noticed many "late-trades" after the market closed and most were Sells, but I guess that was bound to spoil an exceptionally good day.

There is no reason why other companies (such as Kensington) can't move their rules and take on the better risks, by raising their rates it will happen anyway.

I agree hewittalan6, it may take a few years for all this to blow over. The sad fact is that Northern Rock never was the guilty party and still I see the Media using figures of "Loans to deposits" - as though this meant something....if the Public is worried, perhaps they should be worrying where their deposits are bening used where the ratio is closer to 1:1 - these are the loans that may not make it back in time, IMHO.

halifax - 18 Sep 2007 18:11 - 157 of 1029

Hangon you really dont get it. NRK is a "sick one trick pony" about to be put down.If they cant borrow in the money markets they are out of business and even if the goverment can legally guarantee their depositors then penal interest rates would mean losses on their book. Darling has not stated how long he is prepared to guarantee retail deposits. Somebody has to put them out of their misery.
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