Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Fitch Ratings-London-07 January 2015: Fitch Ratings has revised UK-based tour operator Thomas Cook Group plc's (TCG) Outlook to Stable from Positive, while affirming its Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B'. The senior unsecured notes issued by Thomas Cook Finance plc have also been affirmed at 'B+'/'RR3'.
The Outlook revision reflects Fitch's view that developing competitive trends and Thomas Cook's positioning in the tour operator and airline marketplace will continue to limit the momentum with which the business can strengthen the company's free cash flow generation and credit profile. Fitch, however, recognises the group's successful cost-cutting, which we believe will continue to be supported by an on-going fleet renewal programme.
The affirmation reflects improved results for the financial year ended September 2014, following significant further cost-cutting.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Turnaround Plan, Improved Trading
- TCG continues to deliver on its Wave 1 cost-cutting programme, by achieving GBP400m cumulative savings against a previously announced target of GBP360m, while the EBIT margin improved to 3.8% at FYE14 from 2.8% at FYE13. TCG's turnaround plan is designed to improve profitability by GBP500m (recently increased from GBP460m) by end-2015.
A further GBP400m of cost-cutting (Wave 2 programme) by end-2018 has now been identified. There are execution risks, but we note management's successful track record to date and expect that it will continue to execute the plan, notwithstanding the recent change in CEO.
Competitive, Low Margin Industry
- Competition in the holiday sector remains keen, notably from low-cost airlines and the constant growth of online companies such as Expedia.com. Against a target online penetration rate of 50% for bookings by 2015, TCG's online bookings only rose to 38% of total bookings at FYE14 (target 40%), suggesting that TCG, despite its strong brand name, is yet to be identified as a first-call online brand.
Established Brand Name
- The ratings continue to benefit from the strong brand name, geographical diversification of its customer base and end-destinations, dynamic new management, a cost-cutting and re-organisation programme, improved working capital management and IT system rationalisation.
Seasonality and Leverage
- Working capital typically increases by up to GBP700m between September to December, due to this being a quieter holiday period and higher marketing costs for the summer season. Group-adjusted funds from operations (FFO) gross leverage is forecast to be around 5.5x at FYE15 (including working capital swings of GBP700m), from around 6.5x at FYE14.
Liquidity
- Following a successful refinancing in 2013 we expect sustained and improving free cash flow generation, an extended debt maturity profile, and available cash balances and undrawn committed bank lines to support the business's financial flexibility and liquidity.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating action include:
- - An enhanced EBIT margin of close to 4%
- - Positive free cash flow generation
- - Improved interest cover and lease-adjusted FFO gross leverage (including GBP700m for working changes) below 5.0x
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating action include:
- - Deterioration in EBIT margin below 2.5%, reflecting increased competition
- - Liquidity headroom below GBP200m
- - Increase in FFO gross leverage (as adjusted by Fitch) above 7.0x

News

Interesting midknight , i suppose you have to feel sorry for her only getting paid one mil last year plus leaving with 10 million in shares .
Mind you she dragged this up from the grave so fair do's .

Jan 15: Panmure Gordon: Buy - TP: 188p retained

Feb 4: Numis: Hold - TP: 135p

1st Quarter Results

Financial highlights
· Like-for-like Revenue increased by 1.6%, or £24 million, in the quarter to £1,519 million (Q1 2014: £1,495 million) reflecting progress in our New Product and Winter Sun initiatives
· Underlying EBIT margin over the last 12 months improved to 3.9%, an increase of 120 basis points compared to the previous year on a like-for-like basis
· Loss from operations in the quarter decreased by 42%, or £53 million, to £73 million (Q1 2014: loss of £126 million) on a like-for-like basis, following a £46 million reduction in separately disclosed items
· Net debt reduced by £24 million (£55 million on a like-for-like basis) to £1,262 million (Q1 2014: £1,286 million) reflecting improved cash flow

Feb 11:
Panmure Gordon: Buy - TP: 188p
Numis : Hold - TP: 135p
JP Morgan; Overweight - TP: N/A

Post-results

Feb 11: Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 156p

Feb 12: Exane BNP Paribas: Underperform - TP: 110p

Feb 20: Jefferies: Buy - TP: 185p

Chart looking interesting now midnight. Watching, just waiting for MACD to point up and then may have a dabble on the spreads.

Sunday Times report

Having a dabble on spreads Long (MAR) @ 125.1 tight stop 115.1

Thomas Cook, Fosun in strategic partnership

StockMarketWire.com

Thomas Cook Group and Fosun Int'l are in a strategic partnership to build international cooperation across a number of business areas, with a view to accelerating Thomas Cook's existing profitable growth strategy and creating the potential for new growth opportunities.

Assuming the plans under the partnership are implemented in 2015, the board of Thomas Cook expected the proposed initiatives to deliver sufficient profit to be earnings accretive in the financial year ended 30 September 2016.

In the context of the strategic partnership, and with a view to becoming a long term shareholder in Thomas Cook, Fosun has agreed to invest £91.8m for the issue of 73,135,777 new Thomas Cook ordinary shares, representing 5% of the Company's existing issued ordinary share capital.

Fosun intends over time to purchase further Thomas Cook shares on the open market with a view to increasing its shareholding in Thomas Cook up to approximately 10% of the enlarged issued ordinary share capital.

The Board of Thomas Cook believes that the partnership with Fosun represents an attractive opportunity to deliver significant benefits to Thomas Cook's customers, staff and shareholders, including:

· the introduction of a new long term strategic investor in the Company with a strong track record of investments in the international travel and leisure market;

· the acceleration of Thomas Cook's product strategy, for example through the further development of its exclusive Concept hotels across its key destination markets;

· collaboration opportunities with Fosun's other travel and leisure businesses, including Club Med, a leading holiday resort company; and

· access, over the medium term, to the fast-growing Chinese tourism market in partnership with a company with significant experience in Chinese leisure and tourism.

Mar 9: Barclays: Equal weight - TP: 122p

Mar 11; Citigroup: Neutral - TP: 150p

Pre-close trading update


Trading in line with expectations

Highlights

· With the Winter 2014/15 season now almost fully sold, and Summer 2015 more than 50% sold, the Group is trading in line with management's expectations

· The UK business continues to trade ahead of last year, with significant bookings growth resulting from robust demand particularly for our Winter Sun holidays

· Trading in Continental Europe and Northern Europe, while still tough compared to last year's strong performance, has improved since we reported our first quarter results

· Demand for holidays to our Concept Hotels is growing, with bookings up by 20% versus prior year

· Bookings on thomascook.com are up by 10% compared to prior year, reflecting continued progress in our digital initiatives

· Airlines Germany continues to grow strongly, especially in the long haul sector

Comment

Mar 31:
Panmure Gordon: Buy - TP: 188p
Numis: Hold - TP: 135p
Shore Capital: Hold - TP N/A