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Just got in. One race every 35 mins. Think I'll give it a miss today.

Spurs odds against tonight. Price can't be right can it?

1.83/1.84.

You would fancy Spurs to score at some point. The implication is that the decay will be quite rapid later on if it is a close game. I think I be inplay on this match tonight.

TPO :)

Spurs/nottingham: Laid the draw at 3.5. Looking to Spurs to score early on.

D.

Diego

if you are expecting spurs to score early why lay the draw rather than back spurs?

Fundy, I think Megson is doing a good job at Forest and I read somewhere that he's got a game plan so I'm really hedging my bet here. My enthusiasm for Spurs to score first is based only on their Premier status.

D

Spurs dominate posession at the moment four to one.

Letting my head rule my heart - have backed spurs at 1.93
(thats something id never of done before i met scrip lol)

About bloody time Spurs, thankyou. Price now 1.25!

I'm tired so an early night for me. Off for a hot bath and to watch the news.

Took their time didnt they scrip - now greened up - come on forest!!!!! (heart back in charge now)

Read this thread late tonight, but got all set up at 55 mins of play..... thankyou spurs for a very quick profit and green-up. :-)

Inspection at Ludlow at 11:30 but the other meetings are going ahead today by the look of it.

Scrip - a question re the Spurs game. I was watching its progress and like others considered a Spurs back at 1.83 before the game. At half time and still 0-0 I was looking at 2.04. My thoughts then were as follows:

If Spurs do score, I am looking at maybe a 50 profit after greening up. If I leave the bet to run (the received wisdom) and Spurs do not score, I stand to lose 100 (being 1 per tick). From the perspective of the half-time position, I was wondering whether the risk-reward profile is still viable.

You were in this position yourself with a substantial position needing Spurs to score in the second half. How did you view it? I assume you were prepared to let it go to full-time (as I understand from the course you should) and take the loss.

I assume the answer is yes on the basis that the loss is more than recovered when it mostly goes your way over time but it is a serious half-time emotion to handle :)

Yes

If you followed the rules to the book you wouldn't have been on the match last night as it did not fulfill various criteria mentioned at the course. However if you are confident enought to make a judgement you can. You will see my comments scattered over much of the thread on individual footy matches.

Spurs were all over Forest last night and at half time they were "leading" in the stats by about 0.60 goals to 0.10. If they kept that rate up then they would almost certainly score in the second half. Posession was >60% as well and as high as 75% early on. In short, I would have been amazed if Spurs didn't score. However, sometimes things do not happen the way you expect.

The problem with covering a loss in this type of scenario is that you can cover multiples of your stake. So say you bought at X you could lay at X-whatever; but always the odds will end up a multiples of X if your game plan is not working out.

Therefore you do not want to have a system that allows you to lose more than your stake. You have to make the expectancy positive somewhere. I do that by "limiting" my loss to 100% but winning X X% of the time. Different markets and strategies need different money management.

Often where people go wrong is chasing a loss. Say Forest scored and Spurs went out to 4's. You could cover at 4's but if Spurs came back to lead 2-1 you would face losing three times your captial. You could cover again but if Forest came back you could end up 16 times worse off.

Scrip

Are you planning another course soon or are you waiting for (and to include) some stuff on BOTS? Unfortunately for me, I have not been able to make the last two(or even the first two).

Layed sound that alarm at lingfield at 3.2 and backed at 4.1 - then they withdraw the horse and all bets cancelled!!!

Thanks Scrip, that confirms what I understood from the course. Facing it in practice sharpens the focus even more!

Fundy, So did I and then the site froze and cost me a packet on the eventual winner. I had a position open when the site froze and couldn't exit properly before the start. Abusive email sent to Betfair, I feel slightly better now but my wallet hurts.