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Spurs dominate posession at the moment four to one.

Letting my head rule my heart - have backed spurs at 1.93
(thats something id never of done before i met scrip lol)

About bloody time Spurs, thankyou. Price now 1.25!

I'm tired so an early night for me. Off for a hot bath and to watch the news.

Took their time didnt they scrip - now greened up - come on forest!!!!! (heart back in charge now)

Read this thread late tonight, but got all set up at 55 mins of play..... thankyou spurs for a very quick profit and green-up. :-)

Inspection at Ludlow at 11:30 but the other meetings are going ahead today by the look of it.

Scrip - a question re the Spurs game. I was watching its progress and like others considered a Spurs back at 1.83 before the game. At half time and still 0-0 I was looking at 2.04. My thoughts then were as follows:

If Spurs do score, I am looking at maybe a 50 profit after greening up. If I leave the bet to run (the received wisdom) and Spurs do not score, I stand to lose 100 (being 1 per tick). From the perspective of the half-time position, I was wondering whether the risk-reward profile is still viable.

You were in this position yourself with a substantial position needing Spurs to score in the second half. How did you view it? I assume you were prepared to let it go to full-time (as I understand from the course you should) and take the loss.

I assume the answer is yes on the basis that the loss is more than recovered when it mostly goes your way over time but it is a serious half-time emotion to handle :)

Yes

If you followed the rules to the book you wouldn't have been on the match last night as it did not fulfill various criteria mentioned at the course. However if you are confident enought to make a judgement you can. You will see my comments scattered over much of the thread on individual footy matches.

Spurs were all over Forest last night and at half time they were "leading" in the stats by about 0.60 goals to 0.10. If they kept that rate up then they would almost certainly score in the second half. Posession was >60% as well and as high as 75% early on. In short, I would have been amazed if Spurs didn't score. However, sometimes things do not happen the way you expect.

The problem with covering a loss in this type of scenario is that you can cover multiples of your stake. So say you bought at X you could lay at X-whatever; but always the odds will end up a multiples of X if your game plan is not working out.

Therefore you do not want to have a system that allows you to lose more than your stake. You have to make the expectancy positive somewhere. I do that by "limiting" my loss to 100% but winning X X% of the time. Different markets and strategies need different money management.

Often where people go wrong is chasing a loss. Say Forest scored and Spurs went out to 4's. You could cover at 4's but if Spurs came back to lead 2-1 you would face losing three times your captial. You could cover again but if Forest came back you could end up 16 times worse off.

Scrip

Are you planning another course soon or are you waiting for (and to include) some stuff on BOTS? Unfortunately for me, I have not been able to make the last two(or even the first two).

Layed sound that alarm at lingfield at 3.2 and backed at 4.1 - then they withdraw the horse and all bets cancelled!!!

Thanks Scrip, that confirms what I understood from the course. Facing it in practice sharpens the focus even more!

Fundy, So did I and then the site froze and cost me a packet on the eventual winner. I had a position open when the site froze and couldn't exit properly before the start. Abusive email sent to Betfair, I feel slightly better now but my wallet hurts.

Somehow I think Queens Brigade will win the 14:00. Messing around and lost some on that one so you go and watch it win!!

Hurrah, It didn't my luck maybe on a better tack; all green on 14:10.

I had the experience that Bones mentioned on the Arsenal game, coming into the 2nd half they upped a gear (and when was the last time Arsenal didn't score) so I backed them thinking that sooner or later Sheffield would buckle. Naturally they didn't.

One lesson here is that I shouldn't bet on Arsenal games, even if I think there is no emotional attachment there is bound to be some effect on an unconscious level.

Other than that I find these situations emotionally disconcerting as the risk 2 reward seems all wrong, I suppose once I have more eyeball evidence that the probability of coming out on top is enough to overturn the bad r2r I'll feel more comfortable with this strategy

Other than that its been an up and down experience since the course, I am a victim of itchy fingers and not enough discipline. Anyway the best way to learn is to fail, and the best way to fail is with small stakes :-)

Site stalled again there. Betfair really need to sort this out.

Script - fwiw - I've been on all day without any glitches at all here.

What broadband provider are you with?

Scrip

i have had 3 or 4 occasions where it has stalled for at least 10-15 seconds at a time - still having a very good afternoon but it is getting annoying (im on tiscali broadband)

None of you really thought that Spurs were gonna draw or lose surely??
That was a certain back for me especially knowing that Mido would come on at some point!