Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group's Q3 pretax loss has widened to £64m, from £44m, on revenue of £1.85bn, from £1.95bn.

"Trading patterns have remained broadly unchanged since the last update. Demand for Turkey has continued to suffer from geopolitical disruption and, as a result, we have further reduced capacity to Turkey and redeployed this mainly into the Western Mediterranean," the company said.

"In addition, Airlines Germany is being impacted by further pricing pressure caused by intense competition and weak demand, leading to lower yields in the short and medium haul market.

"As a result, based on recent trading, and recognising a degree of uncertainty given the current disruptive market conditions, we now expect full year underlying operating profit to be around £300 million.

"This includes the benefit of foreign exchange translation, which we now estimate to be £32 million (up from £20 million when we last reported in May).

"Despite the near-term challenges, we remain confident that the actions we are taking to better position the business for the longer term - including improving the quality of our holiday offering, investing in our online proposition, and targeting efficiencies - will lead to further profitable growth."

69.85p +3.60 (+5.43%)

Just short of 70p the highest price during the last 2 month

There was a steady rise for the last few days, culminating on today's higher rise

Full Year Results 2016

Performance in line with Q3 expectations
· Revenue maintained: Turkey impact offset by shift to alternative destinations and currency translation
· Gross margin of 23.4%, up 80 basis points, reflecting focus on our improved holiday offering
· Underlying EBIT of £308 million
· Record underlying EBIT margins in UK and Northern Europe; difficult year for Condor
· Profit after tax of £9 million
· Recommended dividend of 0.5 pence per share

Focus on quality and service delivered record customer satisfaction
· Group Net Promoter Score ('NPS') up 6 points overall in Summer 2016
· Increased focus on own brand hotels resonating: NPS up 7 points in Summer 2016
· Increasing direct contact with customers: controlled distribution up 1% pt, web share up 3 % pts

Transforming the business for sustainable growth through our New Operating Model
· Building on success of own brand hotels: 14 new hotels in pipeline so far
· Strengthening our holiday offering by streamlining portfolio of selected high-quality partner hotels
· Growing sales of personalised services for customers: sales of ancillaries up 9%
· Improving efficiency of our complementary offering through Webjet hotel sourcing partnership
· New Operating Model delivering financial benefits as planned; EBIT targets increased to FY19

Thomas Cook pays first dividend since 2011 - By Lee Wild | Wed, 23rd November 2016 - 12:44

Thomas Cook pays first dividend since 2011 Travel agents have had a terrible 2016. Both London's big players - TUI (TUI) and Thomas Cook (TCG) - are down heavily as terrorists close down previously lucrative holiday destinations.
However, Cook managed to make more money than expected this year, admittedly driven by currency gains, and says it will pay a first dividend since 2011. It's why the share price just soared 10% to a six-month high.

Warning in May that demand for trips to Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt had dried up sent Cook shares to their lowest since early 2013. That unwound three-quarters of the incredible 1,500% rally between 2012 and January 2014.

But business has clearly picked up, with the shift to alternative destinations plus currency translation benefits offsetting a lack of interest in Turkey. Demand is up in the UK, and selling more premium holidays improved profit margin here to a record 6.4% in the 12 months ended 30 September.

Group underlying operating profit fell by £2 million to £308 million, a tad better than recently lowered guidance of around £300 million, on revenue down slightly to £7.81 billion.

Despite a £22 million slump in profit from continental Europe, where Turkey was a big loser, a strong euro meant Cook was £39 million better off converting earnings there back into pounds, about £7 million more than previously thought. Strip that out and profit actually fell by £41 million.



Still, business was brisk in the Nordic region, where Cook made a record £124 million, up £22 million on last year like-for-like, giving a market-leading margin of 11%.

That helped offset a plunge into the red at Cook's German airline Condor, hit by Turkey and overcapacity on routes to the Canaries and Balearics during the peak summer period.

Demand for winter breaks is in line with our expectations, with the season already 61% sold, about 2% better than this time last year. Predictably, there's been a shift away from Turkey and North Africa to Spain and long-haul destinations.

Look for underlying operating profit of £327 million on revenue of £8.9 billion, says NumisAfter everything's been put through the wash, including the tax bill, there's £9 million left, enough to spend £7.7 million on a 0.5p per share final dividend, the first for more than five years.

Chief executive Peter Fankhauser remains bullish and predicts that profit in the current financial year should meet expectations.

Currently, Wyn Ellis at Numis Securities pencils in underlying operating profit of £327 million on revenue of £8.9 billion. That gives earnings per share (EPS) of 11.1p, putting Cook on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 7.3 times.

That looks cheap, but Ellis is not buying it. "We remain unenthusiastic about the investment merits of TCG," he said Wednesday. "We believe that the basic business model continues to face structural challenges," he continued, adding that the miserly valuation was justified by "major uncertainties about future growth". His price target sticks at 74p.

JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) and raised its price target to 92p (from 85p)

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook says it has made a solid start to FY 2017 with Q1 revenue rising to £1.62bn, from £1.41bn. Its loss from operations for the three-month period was £67m, from £78m.

"We have delivered a solid performance for the first three months in line with our expectations, against a backdrop of continued uncertainty," said CEO Peter Fankhauser in a statement.

"We remain cautious about the rest of the year, given the uncertain political and economic outlook," he added.

"It's still relatively early in the selling cycle for summer holidays, but based on current trading, and supported by further financial benefits from implementing our strategy, we expect our full year operating results to be in line with current market expectations."

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group has maintained its FY underlying EBIT guidance and said trading for the group was progressing in line with its expectations.

In a pre-close trading update, the company said that while it was seeing some margin pressure in parts of the business due to more competition, overall demand for summer holidays was strong.

Based on our current trading performance, and supported by further financial benefits from implementing our strategy, it continued to expect its FY underlying operating result to be in line with current market expectations.

CEO Peter Fankhauser said Thomas Cook's Winter 2016/17 programme was now 90% sold, while its summer 2017 season was now 42% sold.

"Customers' appetite to go abroad on holiday this summer is good across all our markets despite continued political and economic uncertainty," he said.

"Our decision to expand our holiday offering to Greece has helped support customer demand, with bookings to Greece up by around 40% versus last year, while smaller destinations like Cyprus, Bulgaria and Croatia are also proving popular."

Fankhauser added that after a slow start to the season and a tough year in 2016, Thomas Cook was seeing early signs that customers were beginning to go back to Turkey and Egypt.

"Following strong growth last year, bookings to the Spanish Islands have levelled off in a very competitive market. Competition is particularly intense in the airline sector, putting downward pressure on pricing."

Brussels Airlines set to become leading carrier for Thomas Cook Belgium under plans to expand existing partnership
● Thomas Cook Belgium intends to use Brussels Airlines for the majority of its flight requirements
● All 160 pilots and cabin crew, all flight slots, and two aircraft of Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium expected to transfer to Brussels Airlines on completion

Thomas Cook Belgium and Brussels Airlines today announce the intention to widen their existing partnership in a deal that will make Brussels Airlines the leading carrier for Thomas Cook Belgium. Under the terms of the proposal, Brussels Airlines will fly the majority of Thomas Cook's customers, offering them a wider choice of destinations, flights and departure days. Subject to completion of the deal, the operations of Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium (TCAB), Thomas Cook's in-house airline which currently serves the Belgian market, will be absorbed into Brussels Airlines.

The proposed deal will result in the transfer of all 160 pilots and cabin crew, all flight slots and two aircraft from TCAB to Brussels Airlines. TCAB's remaining three aircraft will be redeployed across the wider Thomas Cook Group while 40 ground staff roles with TCAB would be made redundant. A collective consultation process has been initiated with TCAB's workers' council and TCAB is committed to working constructively with them to find a successful resolution. As a result of this expanded partnership, Thomas Cook Belgium would cease using TCAB flights from November 2017.

The proposal builds upon a successful 15-year working relationship between Thomas Cook Belgium and Brussels Airlines, opening up further growth opportunities and enabling both companies to manage aircraft and personnel more efficiently and effectively.

In addition to giving Belgian customers the choice of more departure days and an expanded number of flights, the two companies will work together to assess the opportunity to launch new long-distance flights to sun and beach destinations in North America, the Caribbean, Africa and Asia over the next three years.

Jan Dekeyser, Managing Director of Thomas Cook Belgium, said: "Today's announcement is great news for Belgian holidaymakers. By extending our successful partnership with Brussels Airlines, Thomas Cook Belgium will offer customers from Neckermann, Thomas Cook and Pegase 20% more flights to some of the most popular sun and beach destinations. Across our brands, we will work together with Brussels Airlines to offer a tailor-made travel experience and build the most attractive holiday offering for Belgian consumers. Our extended partnership is consistent with Thomas Cook Group's strategy as we develop closer relationships with selected third parties to work with us to support profitable growth."

Bernard Gustin, Chief Executive of Brussels Airlines, said: "The combination of Brussels Airlines' network and expertise with Thomas Cook's holiday business will further improve the customer offer of Brussels Airlines. On completion, Brussels Airlines will double its sun and beach destinations to 51 with the addition of Cape Verde, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Egypt as brand new destinations on the flight schedule. We feel very optimistic about the opportunities for further expansion as we grow our business to the benefit of both customers and the Belgian economy."

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook Group has narrowed its H1 loss and lifted revenue for the six-months period, and said it saw FY EBIT in line with current market expectations.

CEO Peter Fankhauser described the performance as good.
"The progress we've made on our strategy helped achieve a 3% increase in revenues, with strong customer demand for our holidays despite the competitive environment," he said.

Revenue was £2.99bn, from £2.67bn. H1 loss was £272m, from a loss of £283m.

"Importantly, the actions we've taken to improve our holiday offering, managing our portfolio of hotels more tightly for quality, are delivering good results," said Fankhauser.

"We've also made great progress in developing our own-brand hotels and resorts, which give our customers a unique Thomas Cook experience. We're planning 11 new hotel launches this summer including our new family-friendly Casa Cook in Kos, complete with its own beach club, and our first hotel in Sicily, the Sentido Acacia Marina.

"We also have a further 11 openings in the pipeline for the next 18 months, including at least two new Casa Cook hotels."

Thomas Cook was seeing strong customer demand across most of its markets.

Greece continued to be the standout destination for Summer 2017, while customers were also seeking out smaller European destinations like Cyprus and Bulgaria, as well as travelling further afield.

"In contrast, following strong growth last year, bookings to the Spanish Islands have levelled off in a very competitive market," the CEO added.

"I'm also pleased with the progress we've made in our Group airlines business.

"Bookings are up significantly for the Summer, boosted by the addition of 15 new destinations to our flight programme, further expanding the choice and value we offer our customers.

"In our German airline, Condor, the actions we've taken after the market disruption of last year have started to come through, and we are confident that Condor will return to profit for the full year.

"Despite continued overcapacity in the airline market and strong competition particularly in our UK business, based on current trading we expect underlying EBIT for the full year to be in line with current market expectations."

StockMarketWire.com
Travel agent Thomas Cook (TCG) increased its gross profit by 18.8% to £468m in the three months to 30 June, but its margin fell from 21.3% to 20.6% as a result of strong competition in Spain.

The company made a profit from operations of £6m compared with a loss of £25m a year earlier.

This was driven by strong demand for holidays across the group combined with an improved performance in its German airline.

Peter Fankhauser, chief executive of Thomas Cook, said German airline Condor remains on track to return to profitability for the full year.

Group revenue rose by 14% to £2,272m.

Overall group bookings for summer 2017 rose 11% with pricing up 1%, with significant growth to Greece (up 22%), Bulgaria (up 19%), Cyprus (up 14%) and long-haul destinations.

"As we said in May, we are experiencing pressure on margins to Spain in what is a competitive environment, though this is being mitigated by our focus on our own-brand and core hotel offering and supported by strong overall demand for our summer holidays. As a result, we continue to expect our full year underlying operating result to be in line with current market expectations," said Fankhauser.

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook (TCG) has left its full year underlying EBIT outlook unchanged after the summer trading period closed out as expected.

Winter 2017/18 booked revenue rose 6%, with growing demand for Turkey and North Africa.

The company has also announced new alliances with Expedia and LMEY.

"Thomas Cook has enjoyed a good summer," chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

"Customers from across our markets have shown a strong appetite for our holidays, picking a wide range of destinations in their search for the sun, with Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus proving particularly popular."

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook posted a rise in first-half profit after increased demand for holidays boosted revenue.

Underlying operating profit rose 9.3% to £330m as revenue rose 9.0% on a like-for-like basis.

The company declared an interim dividend of 0.6p, up from 0.5p a year earlier.

"Looking to the year ahead, we can see real momentum in our group airline, and expect our Continental Europe and Northern Europe tour operator businesses to continue their good performance," chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

"While conditions are challenging in the UK, we have implemented a set of actions to improve performance. Overall, based on current trading, I believe that we are well-positioned to achieve a full year operating result in line with market expectations."

Numis today upgrades its investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) to buy (from reduce) and set its price target at 149p.

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook grew its group revenue by 7% to £1,749 million in the three months to 31 December, driven by more customers and higher pricing in its tour operating and airline businesses.

The gross profit increased by £16 million to £376 million, but the gross margin fell 50 basis points to 21.5% because of higher Spanish hotel bed cost inflation and a lower mix of long haul sales.

The group's seasonal underlying loss from operations improved by £10 million to £42 million, reflecting a good performance by Group Airline, against a weak comparative period for Condor in particular.

Condor's turnaround has continued, leading to an underlying loss of £13 million for Group Airline, an improvement of £9 million. Group Airline, including Condor, carried 3.5 million customers during the period, an increase of 8% compared to last year.

Tour Operator underlying loss improved by £1 million to £22 million, with all segments achieving a similar result to last year. Corporate costs were £7 million, also in line with last year.

Net debt at 31 December 2017 was £1,296 million, an increase of £71 million over the last 12 months. This includes non-recurring payments totalling £88 million to The Co-operative Group in connection with exiting its UK retail joint venture. On a like-for-like basis, excluding these payments and the effects of currency changes, net debt improved by £65 million.

Winter trading for the group is in line with expectations, with 80% of the programme sold, a similar level to last year. Total bookings are up 8%, supported by continuing demand for the Canaries and a strong recovery in demand for Egypt.

Average selling prices are 1% lower overall, reflecting a shift in the mix from long haul to short and medium haul destinations.

Tour Operator bookings are ahead by 1% with pricing up 4%. Group Airline bookings are 10% ahead, with pricing 10% higher to short and medium haul destinations, and 2% higher to long haul destinations.

The group said it has made an encouraging start to trading for summer 2018, with its holiday and flight programme now 34% sold, 3% higher than this time last year.

In the UK tour operator, which tends to have an earlier booking pattern compared to other markets, bookings are up by 3%, while average selling prices are up by 6%.

Peter Fankhauser, chief executive of Thomas Cook, said: "From all that we see so far, customers' appetite for a summer holiday abroad shows no sign of slowing down. We've taken early action to meet strong demand for destinations in the Eastern Mediterranean. This has enabled us to shift capacity out of the Spanish islands where we have seen a continuation of the margin pressures we experienced last summer, particularly for the UK market."

He added: "This remains a highly competitive - and, at times, unpredictable - market, as the disruption in the airlines sector in recent months demonstrates. However, based on current trading and the continued progress we are making on implementing our customer-focused strategy for profitable growth, we expect to deliver a performance in line with current expectations for the full year."

Credit Suisse today upgrades its investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) to outperform (from neutral) and raised its price target to 160p (from 112p).

StockMarketWire.com
Travel group Thomas Cook reported a fall in third-quarter profit and downgraded its annual earnings guidance, as intense competition at Spanish holiday destinations hurt margins.

Gross profit for the three months through June fell 3% to £443m, even as revenue rose 10% to £2.48bn.

Annual profit was now expected to come in at the lower end of market expectations, the company said.

Summer 2018 bookings were up 11% on last year, with 79% of the programme sold.

Gross margin contracted by 240 basis points to 17.9%, which Thomas Cook said reflected pressure its UK tour operator, particularly to Spanish islands.

'We have grown revenue strongly in the third quarter as more customers chose Thomas Cook for their holidays,' chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

'I'm pleased to see that the improvements we've made to our holidays are paying off through strong growth in both new and retained customers, at 12% and 5% respectively so far this year.'

'It's clear that we remain in a competitive environment, particularly in the UK where the growth in popularity of higher-margin destinations like Turkey and Egypt has not fully offset the continued pressure on margins to Spanish holidays.'

'Based on our current view, we now expect growth in full year underlying operating profit to be at the lower end of market expectations.'

StockMarketWire.com
Travel company Thomas Cook Group downgraded its annual earnings guidance after warm summer weather prompted many people to stay at home, while also announcing that chief financial officer Bill Scott had decided to step down.

Earnings before interest and tax were now expected to be around £280m, based on currently trading, the company said.

'Summer 2018 has seen a return to popularity of destinations such as Turkey and Tunisia,' chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

'However, it has also been marked by a prolonged period of hot weather across Europe.'

'This meant many customers spent June and July enjoying the sunshine at home and put off booking their holidays abroad, leading to even tougher competition and higher than usual levels of discounting in the 'lates' market of August and September.'

Total group booking for the summer were up 12% on-year but pricing fell 5%.

For the upcoming winter season, the programme was 43% sold, with bookings 2% behind last year and average selling prices up 1%.

'Trading since the last update has been tough, particularly in the tour pperator, where our ability to drive margins in the 'lates' market has been further restricted by excess summer capacity,' Thomas Cook said.

'In addition, we have reflected the more difficult trading environment for some of our suppliers in our approach to historic hotel recoveries, a non-cash item.'

'Accordingly, we now expect to deliver full year underlying operating profit of around £280 million, of which the greater element of the downgrade is related to the weak trading.'

Sten Daugaard has been appointed as Scott's replacement on an interim basis while a replacement was sought.

Daugaard, who was currently on the board of the company's German unit, would join as an executive on 1 October and Scott would lead a detailed handover until his formal departure on 1 December.

Group Chief Financial Officer on an interim basis. He will join the company on 1 October 2018 and Bill will lead a detailed handover before Sten is formally appointed to his role on 1 December 2018.

Daugaard also served on the board of German computer company Kontron and retailer Pandora.

'I would like to thank Bill for the contribution he has made over the last six years at Thomas Cook, chairman Frank Meysman said.

'I am pleased that we have secured someone of Sten's considerable experience to assume this important role while we find a long-term successor to Bill.'

what a stinker of a chart
thank goodness i haven't held these for a long time ..... i guess there's a bottom somewhere but that could be some way further south, and quite possibly below the all time low of 55p

Its been a lot lower than that cynic!