Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Numis today upgrades its investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) to buy (from reduce) and set its price target at 149p.

StockMarketWire.com
Thomas Cook grew its group revenue by 7% to £1,749 million in the three months to 31 December, driven by more customers and higher pricing in its tour operating and airline businesses.

The gross profit increased by £16 million to £376 million, but the gross margin fell 50 basis points to 21.5% because of higher Spanish hotel bed cost inflation and a lower mix of long haul sales.

The group's seasonal underlying loss from operations improved by £10 million to £42 million, reflecting a good performance by Group Airline, against a weak comparative period for Condor in particular.

Condor's turnaround has continued, leading to an underlying loss of £13 million for Group Airline, an improvement of £9 million. Group Airline, including Condor, carried 3.5 million customers during the period, an increase of 8% compared to last year.

Tour Operator underlying loss improved by £1 million to £22 million, with all segments achieving a similar result to last year. Corporate costs were £7 million, also in line with last year.

Net debt at 31 December 2017 was £1,296 million, an increase of £71 million over the last 12 months. This includes non-recurring payments totalling £88 million to The Co-operative Group in connection with exiting its UK retail joint venture. On a like-for-like basis, excluding these payments and the effects of currency changes, net debt improved by £65 million.

Winter trading for the group is in line with expectations, with 80% of the programme sold, a similar level to last year. Total bookings are up 8%, supported by continuing demand for the Canaries and a strong recovery in demand for Egypt.

Average selling prices are 1% lower overall, reflecting a shift in the mix from long haul to short and medium haul destinations.

Tour Operator bookings are ahead by 1% with pricing up 4%. Group Airline bookings are 10% ahead, with pricing 10% higher to short and medium haul destinations, and 2% higher to long haul destinations.

The group said it has made an encouraging start to trading for summer 2018, with its holiday and flight programme now 34% sold, 3% higher than this time last year.

In the UK tour operator, which tends to have an earlier booking pattern compared to other markets, bookings are up by 3%, while average selling prices are up by 6%.

Peter Fankhauser, chief executive of Thomas Cook, said: "From all that we see so far, customers' appetite for a summer holiday abroad shows no sign of slowing down. We've taken early action to meet strong demand for destinations in the Eastern Mediterranean. This has enabled us to shift capacity out of the Spanish islands where we have seen a continuation of the margin pressures we experienced last summer, particularly for the UK market."

He added: "This remains a highly competitive - and, at times, unpredictable - market, as the disruption in the airlines sector in recent months demonstrates. However, based on current trading and the continued progress we are making on implementing our customer-focused strategy for profitable growth, we expect to deliver a performance in line with current expectations for the full year."

Credit Suisse today upgrades its investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) to outperform (from neutral) and raised its price target to 160p (from 112p).

StockMarketWire.com
Travel group Thomas Cook reported a fall in third-quarter profit and downgraded its annual earnings guidance, as intense competition at Spanish holiday destinations hurt margins.

Gross profit for the three months through June fell 3% to £443m, even as revenue rose 10% to £2.48bn.

Annual profit was now expected to come in at the lower end of market expectations, the company said.

Summer 2018 bookings were up 11% on last year, with 79% of the programme sold.

Gross margin contracted by 240 basis points to 17.9%, which Thomas Cook said reflected pressure its UK tour operator, particularly to Spanish islands.

'We have grown revenue strongly in the third quarter as more customers chose Thomas Cook for their holidays,' chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

'I'm pleased to see that the improvements we've made to our holidays are paying off through strong growth in both new and retained customers, at 12% and 5% respectively so far this year.'

'It's clear that we remain in a competitive environment, particularly in the UK where the growth in popularity of higher-margin destinations like Turkey and Egypt has not fully offset the continued pressure on margins to Spanish holidays.'

'Based on our current view, we now expect growth in full year underlying operating profit to be at the lower end of market expectations.'

StockMarketWire.com
Travel company Thomas Cook Group downgraded its annual earnings guidance after warm summer weather prompted many people to stay at home, while also announcing that chief financial officer Bill Scott had decided to step down.

Earnings before interest and tax were now expected to be around £280m, based on currently trading, the company said.

'Summer 2018 has seen a return to popularity of destinations such as Turkey and Tunisia,' chief executive Peter Fankhauser said.

'However, it has also been marked by a prolonged period of hot weather across Europe.'

'This meant many customers spent June and July enjoying the sunshine at home and put off booking their holidays abroad, leading to even tougher competition and higher than usual levels of discounting in the 'lates' market of August and September.'

Total group booking for the summer were up 12% on-year but pricing fell 5%.

For the upcoming winter season, the programme was 43% sold, with bookings 2% behind last year and average selling prices up 1%.

'Trading since the last update has been tough, particularly in the tour pperator, where our ability to drive margins in the 'lates' market has been further restricted by excess summer capacity,' Thomas Cook said.

'In addition, we have reflected the more difficult trading environment for some of our suppliers in our approach to historic hotel recoveries, a non-cash item.'

'Accordingly, we now expect to deliver full year underlying operating profit of around £280 million, of which the greater element of the downgrade is related to the weak trading.'

Sten Daugaard has been appointed as Scott's replacement on an interim basis while a replacement was sought.

Daugaard, who was currently on the board of the company's German unit, would join as an executive on 1 October and Scott would lead a detailed handover until his formal departure on 1 December.

Group Chief Financial Officer on an interim basis. He will join the company on 1 October 2018 and Bill will lead a detailed handover before Sten is formally appointed to his role on 1 December 2018.

Daugaard also served on the board of German computer company Kontron and retailer Pandora.

'I would like to thank Bill for the contribution he has made over the last six years at Thomas Cook, chairman Frank Meysman said.

'I am pleased that we have secured someone of Sten's considerable experience to assume this important role while we find a long-term successor to Bill.'

what a stinker of a chart
thank goodness i haven't held these for a long time ..... i guess there's a bottom somewhere but that could be some way further south, and quite possibly below the all time low of 55p

Its been a lot lower than that cynic!

so it has :-)
initially only went back 5 years!

no mention of weaker £ sterling vs a.o Euro unless all hedged (unlikely)

Citigroup today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) and cut its price target to 66p (from 115p).

UBS today upgrades its investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) to neutral (from sell) and cut its price target to 60p (from 85p).

This one has been trashed.

Bought in today.

40p

that was brave, especially in this present market

True.

Cant deny that. Looking far enough back it can half again to the last low a few years back.

Then some more :)

See how we go.

Happy at the moment :)

Update on expected results for the full year ended 30 September 2018

Thomas Cook Group ("Thomas Cook") has today published an update on the expected results for the full year ending 30 September 2018, ahead of schedule as a result of the expected lower underlying EBIT of £250 million. The Group will publish its full audited financial results as planned on 29 November 2018.

The comments below are based on underlying like-for-like comparisons unless otherwise stated, as Management believes this provides a clearer view of the Group's year-on-year progression

Performance highlights

· Group revenue of £9,584 million, up 6% on a like-for-like basis

· Underlying EBIT of £250 million, £58 million lower than prior year on a like-for-like basis

o Tour Operator down £88m, impacted by discounting in 'lates' market; UK particularly disappointing

o Strong Airline profit growth of £35 million, despite higher disruption costs

o Group result includes £28 million of legacy and non-recurring charges to underlying EBIT

· EBIT SDIs of £153 million, including transformation and start-up costs

· Net debt of £389 million; increase due to delayed bookings and higher non-cash items

· Bank covenant compliant; headroom for future covenant tests

· Dividend suspended for Full Year 2018

Strategic progress developing new opportunities for growth and efficiencies

· Sales of holidays to own-brand hotels up 15%; 2019 pipeline of at least 20 new hotels

· Accelerating own-brand hotel growth through £150-million fund with first £35 million expansion capital

· Strategic integration of Expedia technology and content in first five markets

· Innovative ancillary services driving growth of 4%

Priorities for 2019 onwards

· Address performance in our UK tour operator business

· Better capacity management and improved operational flexibility

· Drive increased focus on cash and cost discipline across group

· Improve selling of higher-margin own-brand hotels and differentiated holidays

Outlook for 2019

· Expect to deliver progress on underlying EBIT and lower separately disclosed items, leading to substantial progress on reported operating profit

· Reported operating profit will be a primary focus going forward, together with free cash generation

Commenting on the results for 2018, Peter Fankhauser added:

"2018 was a disappointing year for Thomas Cook, despite achieving some important milestones in our strategy for transforming the business. After a good start to the year, we experienced a larger-than-anticipated decline in gross margin following the prolonged period of hot weather in our key summer trading period. Our final result is expected to be around £30 million lower than previously guided, due to a number of legacy and non-recurring charges to underlying EBIT.

"Within this, profit in our tour operating business fell £88 million as the sustained heatwave restricted our ability to achieve the planned margins in the last quarter. The UK was particularly hard hit with very high levels of promotional activity coming on top of an already competitive market for holidays to Spain. Despite the impact of the hot summer, our Northern European tour operator achieved a near record performance, albeit lower than that expected at the end of May. Meanwhile, our Group Airline delivered strong growth in customers and profit, benefitting from increasing capacity in a turbulent European aviation sector.

"We remain committed to our strategy for profitable growth and we've made some good progress during the year. Within our own-brand hotels business we have established our hotel investment fund, opening 11 new hotels last summer, including an innovative new concept in Cook's Club. This positions us well for 2019 as we build on our position as one of the top 5 sun & beach hotel companies in Europe with at least 20 new hotel openings planned. Meanwhile, the launch of our alliance with Expedia, now in five of our markets, offers customers a much wider choice of city and domestic hotels at lower cost to the business. Taken together, these developments are transforming our opportunities for growth.

"Looking ahead, we must learn the lessons from 2018 and go into the new year focused on where we can make a difference to customers in our core holiday offering. We will put particular attention on addressing the performance in our UK tour operator where the challenges of transformation in a competitive environment remain significant. Across the Group, we will continue to streamline our cost base and manage our capacity to give us greater operational flexibility and financial discipline, while focusing the team on delivering performance improvements and giving customers more reasons to holiday with Thomas Cook."

unmitigated disaster ..... definitely one to AVOID

These dropped below 20p 6 years ago and recovered to around 180p, I think the time to buy will be when the directors start buying.

Got lucky with this one last month.