bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
driver
- 03 Mar 2006 16:51
- 15437 of 27111
Thanks jimward9
Research Page updated
52) Stanelco to Offer Limited Number of Micro-Manufacturing (BUSINESS WIRE)
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
EWRobson
- 03 Mar 2006 17:30
- 15438 of 27111
Well done, Jim. Didn't seem to affect the market. But its a nice move, a sort of controlled roll-out and puts SEO in the driving seat. Not sure what is involved in terms of equipment given that they are licenses to manufacture - or is the raw material used in existing packing equiment. Also trying to get a handle on the numbers. The Welsh plant is only 40K tons though that appears to have a mix of roles; German capacity was spoken of as 20K tons; SP Metal's (since renamed) internal requirement was stated to be 140K tons and valued at 56m euros. So are we talking about 8m euros or 5m say per licence of which SEO get 50%. Ten custoners is thus 25m of which a significant amount should come through to the bottom line, say 10m or 1.1p per share. At a pe of 10 that would be worth 11p of the share price. If these numbers are in the right ball-park then this would justify a break-out from the current trading range and a price of say 22p allowing a simial sum for GreenSeal at the present state of uncertainty. Would appreciate comments on these numbers.
Eric
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 17:34
- 15439 of 27111
Right.
Follow my maths here.
Each "unit" weighs 50 grams. 20 units to a kilo.
20,000 units to a tonne.
Okay so far? Good. I'm getting lost already.
20,000 tonnes per contract = 400,000,000 units.
The 20,000 tonnes is a minimum output and there are a number of licenses on offer.
Lets assume 5 licenses of the minimum tonnage.
that equates to 2 thousand million units per annum!!
That press release is significant. We will look back on that and realise how significant, to say the release of it was so low key.
Alan
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 17:38
- 15441 of 27111
I aint Paul and I never said that each unit was worth any particular value!
But the maths is correct.
Tot it up yourself.
The 50 grams comes from the results statement for a typical fast food unit.
Alan
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 17:40
- 15442 of 27111
BTW. Thats number 5 on my earlier list of expected RNS.
1 down, 4 to go. ;-)
Alan
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 17:43
- 15444 of 27111
Sorry driver.
getting a bit excited up here.
That (in my opinion) is a more significant bit of news that the tie up with WalMart or the McD thing.
Mouthwatering!!!!
Alan
stockdog
- 03 Mar 2006 17:47
- 15445 of 27111
Alan
nice sums - I take it you think it's 20k tonnes p.a. or is it per term which might be 2, 3 or 5 years?
Actually the number if units is just a function of how light each is. I'm more interested in starting with the demographics of several million units (which products/end users) and dividing by the relevant numbers to get back to the realistic number of tonnes - that would tell us SPmetal's gross revenue of which 50% belongs to SEO after manufacturing and overhead costs of course.
Do you think that SEO will also be able to charge a royalty on each unit - now the big numbers become very interesting?
sd
kimoldfield
- 03 Mar 2006 17:49
- 15446 of 27111
I'm sticking to my prediction that Starpol packaging will be bigger that Greenseal, GS has a limited application use, Starpol is unlimited - keeping up with volume being the only possible problem. 20 by Christmas!?! A good find Jim
kim
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 17:55
- 15447 of 27111
Its another vague one!!
Could well be 5 years, but that is still huge numbers.
I don't think SEO will go the royalty route, but the numbers of units possible tell us this is BIG.
After all, 50 gram may be correct for a takeaway carton, but it will be less for pre packaged foods from supermarkets.
My interest is the indication that it really is happening now, the licenses are going out. The really vague bit? What on earth is vertical integration? I thought that was from the Karma Sutra!!!
Alan
Biscuit
- 03 Mar 2006 18:07
- 15448 of 27111
Vertical integration as an example would be a retailer owning a supplier. Horizontal integration would be a retailer owning another retailer.
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 18:09
- 15449 of 27111
Thanks for that biscuit.
That makes a bit more sense now.
Alan :-)
kimoldfield
- 03 Mar 2006 18:12
- 15450 of 27111
Biscuit
Am I right in thinking that SEO control everything then?
kim
Biscuit
- 03 Mar 2006 18:15
- 15451 of 27111
No problemo, anyone hear an engine revving?
hewittalan6
- 03 Mar 2006 18:15
- 15452 of 27111
Results RNS said WM were fastracking SEO product.
This release says;
Stanelco has decided to take this step of offering vertical integration to a limited number of manufacturers who share with them environmental sustainable and competitive mindsets
And
preference will be given to those companies able to move to agreement and bring product to market in the soonest time frame.
Not going to put two an two together cos when I get 4 SEO get some other number!!
Going to cricket nets soon but my mind will be on this (sad little twerp that i am)
Alan
EWRobson
- 03 Mar 2006 18:49
- 15453 of 27111
I like it. Have you got a 'environmental, sustainable and competitive mind-set'? The answer for any self-respecting supplier has to be yes. If so, and if you are able to act quickly, beating others to the door and get the product to the amrket quickly, then we will do business with you. Nice bit of arrogance, but oprobablky just right for the yanks!
Alan didn't produce a 'credible' number so what about my revenue forecast above?
Eric
ssanebs
- 03 Mar 2006 19:42
- 15454 of 27111
Starpol is in its final weeks of coming to commercialisation, as the US release points out in full confidence of its product. And i bet its mcd's who are the first licensee.
The numbers in the previous post show the potential starpol has, which i dont think shares mag have taken into consideration. They must think seo is just about greenseal.
barney12345
- 03 Mar 2006 20:55
- 15455 of 27111
but why not an rns, after years of flannel rns's the really big news via a press release!!!
hope to god no-one applies for starpol via the us website or email as neither works. I wonder how many other walmart/mcds suppliers have no website or published email?
explosive
- 03 Mar 2006 21:35
- 15456 of 27111
Excellent post Barney and I'm very surprised to hear this, SEO are looking for sales and to cut a potential source of enquiry isn't acceptable.