I bought shares in this company at 4.5p in September 2003. I see they are rising. Can anyone tell me please the growth potential for this company as they have just been awarded several new contracts ?

hello Littlejohn,

I am also sitting at lost in CMS (my largest loss) and when we receive the latest news, I thought shit!! So I understand how u fell. Please hold on to them dont sell your shares yet, the company is has giving some encouraging comments and the fundamentals are still in place.

I have seen other companies issuing profit warnings worse than this and bounce back. Apart from sound fundamentals, tons of patience, faith and courage is needed when investing is such small punts. One thing all investors must always remember to analyse the situation and make rational decisions.

I am not prepare to lose any money on this one. I will hold on even if it takes few years till at least i get my money back. I have follow the herd before and never paid. I invested in shares to see them down, i will sell them at 20% stop loss to only see them bouncing back strongly afterwards and me tearing my hair apart.

I copied this from another BB: We all must consider this :



I would like to make a comment if I may. As a salesman myself, I know that you can't just walk into a new company, without knowing the products, and be expected to gain sales straight away. In my opinion it will take the sales force at least six months to become effective, and probably longer.

The other point I would like to make is this: When my company decided on new software, which cost around the same as the TDI system, it took us nearly two years of deliberation before a contract was signed. I am sure this will apply to any company seriously considering 500K's worth of TDI software.

Therefore, it could be well into next year before we have any substanial sales, but when they do start to flow, they should come through at a steady pace, thats asuming the saleforce do the business of course.

I have been holding this stock since October, and belive it moved up to soon, on expecttaion rather than results. However, I do still believe that this company has the products to do extremely well in a year or two.


I echo your sentiments. I used to work for a software company that developed and sold complex 3D engineering software at $0.5m basic + add-ons. Clients do not buy this kind of product on a whim. There is a huge amount of work to be done, ie

(a) You have to learn what the software will and will NOT do. That takes months for complex software.
(b) You have to investigate what else is on the market and what it will do
(c) You have to be aware of what new products might be on the horizon
(d) When you have seen what the software will not do, how do you get round it. Will the developers be willing to amend their product to get around the problem. If so, that takes time to develop and test. (BTW in sofware development, testing the product thoroughly takes over 50% of the development time)
(e) If you decide to buy the product, will you need extra staff to run it.
(f) How are these staff going to be trained.
(h) What extra computer hardware and communications will be required. How much will it cost and how long to install.

As you can see there is a lot to think about. We used to reckon on a MINIMUM lead time of 9 months


To sum up the previous post, I think you will get a long period where apparently nothing is happening, then when the orders start coming in, there will be an initial trickle, followed by a flood. That is if the product is successful. You will only know that when the trickle + flood appear or fail to appear. At the moment it is too early to tell, and you have to trust your instinct and the feedback from the earlier clients, ie CBOT


Spot on!! If it's good enough for CBOT, it should sell, it will just take time to start rolling. I'm sure all the holders of CWV think the same, lets just hope we are right!

Good post xmortal, and agree with evaluation of TDI.But we have seen very little progress on the small ticket items. Imho what is worrying to the market is not the ability of the sales force. But wether they have the products that will actually sell in large enough quantities to grow the company. History has been littered with companies with excellent products only problem, couldnt sell them.I am also worried that they seem to have shift there focus on targeting the banks when the more obvious market are the exchanges and i wonder if they have had very little interest here since CBOT which was signed 16 months ago. If they can deliver 1 large and a few smaller contracts over the next few months then the price will respond very positively as i beleive the markets confidence will be restored and start to price in forward estimates.

also, dont forget that they can be target of take over by big cos. Remember that the main companies in this are Reuters and bloomberg. Both would like to consolidate the market. Reuters for instance is concentrating in content and CMS is well placed. Reuters have adquired tini cos, like Multex. So there one thing to think too.

Would be a nice little rumour???

I'd buy that rumour for a dollar guys!!

With the company now worth around 5million and over 3million in CASH, the products TDI and ProphetX must be a steal at under 2million.

Money will always chase the next big idea in microcaps, so poor old CMS may be sold lower in the short term as private investors follow the crowd.

I'm not for selling tho. I've damn well taken the pain, so Im waiting for the gain however long it takes. Maybe I'll sell in 5-10years and pay off my mortgage!!

TSQ.

I hope you have a very small mortgage

Andrew,

If this company isn't worth considerably more in 5 years time or hasn't been bought over, I would be very surprised.

Its been a bad 6 months, but the price reflects that. CMS is under pressure to perform both at home & in USA.

Shares Mag gave one of its most bullish tips ever at this price, & tipped again at 12 pence targeting 20pence.

If the story was worth a look before its bound to be worth a look now.

TSQ.

CMS WebView PLC - Detailed Broker Forecasts

2004 2005
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS(p) Pre-tax() EPS(p)

Corporate Synergy 02-07-04 None -0.50 -0.50 1.20 1.50

Consensus -0.50 -0.50 1.20 1.50

1 Month Change -0.75 -0.90 -1.19 -1.50

3 Month Change -0.75 -0.80 -1.19 -1.50


PE Prospective (x) -11.75 3.92

corporate synergy have downgraded their 2004 figures to a loss of 0.5M from a loss of 0.68 M This would imply that they are not expecting any contracts to be signed this year.

sorry loss of 0.68 was 2003 figures, loss of 0.5M expected for 2004.

We're still talking little numbers here Stephen. Prior to the 'profit warning,' 2004 estimates were for profits of 0.3million. 2005 and beyond were the bigger figures, when sales are expected to accelerate.

I'm not really panicking about the differnce between reporting profit of 0.3mio or loss of 0.5mio. That 800,000 difference could be made up with one or two sales! Hence the companys' statement about the effect of large contracts on its bottom line.

Expectations have now been well and truly dampened by broker and media; I believe the price reflects that.

It does now mean however that, as and when new contracts are sold, this might have a more significant upside potential.

Are you or others bearish to the point where you do not see CMS signing any new clients? Comments please..?

TSQ.

CMS WebView PLC
30 June 2004



Trading Update

The directors of CMS WebView plc ('CMS' or 'the Company') had expected to
achieve at least one order of the Company's proprietary modular software system
Transactional Data Interface ('TDI') in the first six months of this year, but
this has not materialised. Therefore, although the Company remains hopeful that
current discussions with new business prospects for TDI, both in the US and the
UK, could lead to a number of orders being concluded before the end of the year,
CMS is now unlikely to break even for the year to 31 December 2004.

Due to the nature of the TDI product, each sale should generate relatively high
levels of revenue and contribution for CMS. At this stage of the Company's
development, the timing of winning new TDI contracts will therefore significantly
affect its financial results in each six monthly reporting period. In April
2004, the Company reported a 35 per cent rise in turnover to 1.6 million (2002:
1.2 million) and losses before tax reduced by 20 per cent to 543,000 (2002:
683,000) for its year ended 31 December 2003.

The Company raised 2.5 million before expenses in December 2003, primarily to
fund an expanded sales drive to market TDI, particularly in North America. In
March, CMS opened a sales and support office in Chicago which was initially
staffed by London-based employees. In May, the Company appointed Kurt Klein, a
highly experienced market data professional, to the position of Director, North
America Operations to lead the sales drive. CMS also reported that the Chicago
Board Of Trade (CBOT), as exclusive distributor of Dow Jones Indexes' market
data, chose TDI software to enable Dow Jones Indexes to enhance its data
throughput. Moreover, the Company has succeeded in controlling costs to lower
than predicted levels.

There have been a number of other important developments in the first six months
of the year which include confirmation by the CBOT that its new TDI market data
feed, which went live earlier this year, has successfully dealt with record
volumes of data. CMS has also won the exclusive licence to sell and support
ProphetX, the market display and trading system for energy and commodity
traders, in Europe as well as in the UK.

While the Company is disappointed not to have achieved a TDI sale in the first
half, it believes that it has made significant progress in creating a
considerably larger pipeline for potential new TDI contracts. Currently, it has
more high quality new business prospects than at any stage in its history.
Additionally, the directors believe that the ongoing recovery in world financial
markets provides CMS with an excellent opportunity and the Company continues to
view the future with confidence.

The above half year trading update is actually more encouraging than the market reaction to it.

For any investors taking a medium to longer term view, it is most definitely still 'all to play for' with this company.

Company currently valued at 4.8million with over 3million in cash. This company has been oversold and is currently being valued as a cash shell with no viable business. Given the sheer revenue generating capability of TDI contracts, the story could change very quickly on announcements between now and year end.

TSQ.

Hi,

Patience is needed here, I work for a real time data provider and believe me it is hard to sell but we sell, slowly but surely, it takes time and a lot of work, systems have to be tested and finally approved by accounts. TDI has the gear luck of being sold to CBTO, LME, CBT. They are important and very impressive sales. any big company would defo take a look and consider it. But it takes time. CMV has a great tool ans will deliver with time.

I wonder if another downgrade is due. Very happy to be out.Target price is 4p based on cash value, however may go lower as the market gives up on them.Will not however reinvest until a major contract is announced.As xmortal said a lot of patience is required and the economic may not favour them in 12 months time. There was an interesting article in the Sunday Business this w/e concerning software companies, in a nut shell large institutions are not purchasing large ticket items, they are either renting or doing without. Only purchasing unless they are absolutely necessary.

cms is now looking like an excellant long term investment.ie -5yrs.the share price is now silly 5p!!!!!.cash in the bank is 4p.so is the business only worth 1p a share? i think not!

Agree with that warrenc.

Doom and gloom is very easy at the moment. One contract announcement could turn the tide.

I think it should also be noted, that TDI and ProphetX are both very cost effective software solutions.

As I stated previously, the company is currently being valued as a cash shell. The position has been oversold on widespread small investor gloom. If it is your view that the potential exists to make new sales, then it is indeed a very good price to buy at.

Has CMS got anything going for it or are we still being played silly games by the company and the MM's.

Bloodhound u only have to look at the volumes to see there is absolutly no interest what so ever.Price will not move up until there is a TDI contract announced( i think everyone is aware of that by now)If they were such a great long term investment then i beleive the market would be discounting some contract wins. As it is the business is being priced at next to nothing. In 12 months time if contracts are still not being one then the price will be lower as the cash balance decreases. The push in to sales will be dramatically increasing there capital outflow.I agree with TSQ that 1 or 2 contracts will dramatically change the markets perception of the company and will begin to discount further contract wins.Company and house broker are telling the market that thet expect contracts to be announced during the 2nd half. The market doesnt beleive them.

Given the potential universe of sales opportunities, you would have to be confident that this company has not been totally naive in its business plan.

They have been around for over 20 years and would appear to have good products in place.

The market is currently showing zero confidence in any sales being achieved. I see the present valuation very simply;

1)if you expect no new sales then the current share price reflects the cash in the bank and the company is probably fairly valued for now

or

2)if you expect ANY new sales of TDI and other products, then the current share price is undervaluing the company significantly

All IMHO.

TSQ.