I'm of the view that having taken the market to the point of serious US oil (shale) capitulation why would you you let the price rise significantly? I'd suggest another 3-6 months of price sub $40 and preferably sub $35 would be the objective.
I am however long this sector and remain so, even though I think it will probably retrace.
No matter how much more efficient the drillers have become and how many suspended wells there, the supply/demand equation is going to turn the other way soon
Oil rig count down another 11 this week to 332. I'm wondering just how long it will go as the fall doesn't appear to be slowing yet and in 30 weeks it will be down to zero ;-)
I think the many of the commentators are conveniently ignoring the fact that all the excess is in storage, whereas in previous times, there was lots of spare capacity to bring onstream