HELLO,

MY HEART SAYS BUY, MY HEAD SAYS NO!

ANY THOUGHTS?

HMV looks interesting with a double bottom.

Wonder if Euroclear have up to date shorting figs.

Yep here they are.................

Well from Euorclear end of June figures for HMV.........

GB0031575722 HMV GROUP ORD 1P 100675368.95 417274471.86 24.12

24.12% being shorted.

This could be one hell of a bull mover of a bottom when shorters close out.

Bugga it, in for a penny in for a pound, Im going long.

Well would you credit it, Nearly a full deck of Broker Buys for this stock.

Forecast P/E of just over 4 for 2011.

looks like a real bargain to me.

Look at that Divi Yield aswell.

HMV Group PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Oriel Securities
05-07-10 UREV 80.80 13.70 7.40 83.60 14.20 7.40

Charles Stanley Securities
05-07-10 BUY 78.00 13.31 7.40 81.00 13.82 7.40

Shore Capital
02-07-10 SELL 81.00 13.80 7.40 76.00 13.00 7.40

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
02-07-10 BUY 75.98 13.01 7.40 81.62 13.98 7.40

Arden Partners
02-07-10 BUY 77.98 13.00 7.40 84.03 14.10 7.40

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
01-07-10 BUY 76.50 12.70 7.40 82.00 13.80 7.40

Seymour Pierce
25-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.30 7.40

Investec Securities
24-06-10 BUY 80.00 13.70 7.40 84.04 14.38 7.40

The Royal Bank of Scotland NV [R]
04-05-10 HOLD 70.89 12.01 7.40

Numis Securities Ltd
29-04-10 HOLD 80.70 13.20 7.40

Nomura Research Institute
19-02-10 BUY

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 78.79 13.15 7.40 82.65 13.98 7.40
1 Month Change -0.61 -0.21 0.00 2.68 0.59 0.00
3 Month Change -2.04 -0.40 0.00 1.65 0.77 0.00


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 11.31% 4.05% 6.32%
DPS 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 129.73m 136.68m

EBIT m m m

Dividend Yield 13.58% 13.58% 13.58%

Dividend Cover 1.71x 1.78x 1.89x

PER 4.31x 4.14x 3.90x

PEG 0.38f 1.02f 0.62f

Net Asset Value PS p p p

Simon Fox, HMV's youthful chief executive, probably has enough on his plate trying to convince a sceptical City that the future for the entertainment chain is bright. But Nick Bubb, retail guru at Arden Partners, warns that the entertainment chain may soon attract an activist investor.

We are disappointed that HMV does not appear to have a Plan B' to boost its ailing share price [such as] a share buyback programme or a corporate restructuring, said Bubb. If they are not planning that then it may not be too long before an activist investors appears on their share register.

However, Bubb is still a buyer of the shares, calling the company's rating derisory, although he has trimmed his target price from 115p to 90p.
City gossips have HMV as a prime candidate for a private equity takeover. Its shares added p to 58p.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23853768-more-talk-of-a-middle-east-bid-puts-sainsburys-at-top-of-the-ftse-list.do

Isn't this sp the Market's split between
1)believing such a good brand will survive and become income-generating
and
2) the belief that no-one will visit their shops to buy overpriced CD/DVD -or whatever, when they can download and pay little, for just the few tracks (sorry, tunes) they really like - perhaps with a sample of "similar" mixes thrown in as a Bonus.

Contrast 2) with the offering I understand comes from within HMV shops - fixed Albums with nearly all the tracks sounding the same (being the same artists) with some actingas "fillers" - if not in my mind - in the mind of others....
Pop music isn't like a Film, that has a "journey" from the start thro' to the finale.
Rather pop music is . . . . . . more like a "finger buffet" where you pick n' mix.

Woah!......pity Woolworths didn't think of that! - they were so near music and already had a Pick'n'Mix name.
Perhaps HMV should team up with Clinton and Moonpig.....that would be a Combination....you heard it here first!

HMV chart starting to look interesting.

Is this the start of an upleg channel. The lower indicators are just about turning positive.

Got some backing from the fundies camp aswell, whats that retail analyst called Nick Bubb?... seem to remember him a week or two back with a 80p plus target I think. dyor.

HMV - Two big recommendations in the Financial Times this weekend.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fb84c9d8-a182-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html


and

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e1fee1f2-a181-11df-9656-00144feabdc0.html

John Lee's comment in the FT says it all:

"However, in my 50 years of investing, I have rarely come across a more extraordinary valuation of a significant PLC than that currently placed on HMV."

HMV has been a good short 4 me.

DEAD DOG OR NOT?

so far has been a DOG, so stay away is the best way

Inclined to agree, if it looks like-, if it smells like-, - - - - then it probably is. (famous quotqtion - dunno?)
Robert Stanell doesn't think so, for over the past 2-years he's invested 50k + in smaller Buys with an average drop must be over 50% - can't imagine his Misses, is too pleased when he raises a glass over the Xmas festivities.

Now, what should HMV do? (to regain their business position on the high street.). Don't say more records, that's about a dead technology, like selling needles (for audio!) was in the 80's when the CD came in.
Clearly they need a new business strand to keep going, for the Debt is now greater than their Mkt Cap (DYOR), or v.close.

Fell 9% today; does the Market think Xmas sales may be affected by the Snow?. 28p
I don't hold, yet - I usually buy-in just before the Balloon goes up, Ahem.

I dont like the look of it but should it fall to 12p/14p I may decide to buy.

With the use of Ipods, Iphones etc, I don't envisage ever buying a CD again, even DVDs are available online and storage on a memory stick takes up a whole lot less room than a rack of plastic. I don't know if HMV have any sharing agreements with Itunes etc (I think not) but it's hard to see where their future income is coming from. Having siad that I was in a HMV store this afternoon and there was quite a long queue for the checkout (mostly DVDs I think).

whatever happened to "Woolies", history has a habit of repeating itself.

Surely doomed. Bad numbers were indicated prior to the snow. The snow has killed off their last chance this year to make any sales progress. Xmas trading figures will be out in mid-Jan (14 Jan last time) and they sure ain't going to be good - we know that from other retailers on the same High Streets (They share footfall. If the crowds aren't there for some shops they probably aren't there for adjacent ones). I remain short.

DEAD DOG OR NOT?

It was lately acting like a dog, but today is bouncing well up from 28p to 31p, time to look closer, for a short term bounce
All the Indicators are on the rise from oversold

The HMV sale is now on!
27p now.

Sales slipping at HMV

Music and books retailer HMV Group said today that for the five-week Christmas period total like-for-like sales were down 12.9%, with Waterstones down 0.4%.

As reported in the group's Interim Results on 9th December 2010, the beginning of the peak trading period was significantly undermined by severe weather in the UK, which continued through until Christmas.

In addition, in HMV UK & Ireland, notwithstanding strong sales of certain key products, underlying entertainment markets have remained weak in the financial year to date. Consequently, the anticipated improvement to first half like for like sales did not materialise.

HMV said at bookseller Waterstone's improved like for like sales reflects the success of the turnaround actions implemented during 2010 and improved stock availabilities from the book hub.

HMV said the challenging entertainment markets, combined with the severe weather over our peak trading period have had a negative impact on the trading year to date.

The group is taking aggressive action to tightly manage its cost base and expects to exit around 60 stores across our UK businesses over the next 12 months as it seek to re-shape its store portfolio. A further 10m per annum of cost savings has been identified across the group.

HMV stated that the combination of more challenging trading conditions, off-set to an extent by a significant step-up in cost savings, leads it to expect, with four months of the year to go, that profit before tax and exceptional items for the full financial year will be around the lower end of the current range of market expectations.

Given the difficult trading conditions over Christmas and the likely outturn for the year, the Board now expects that compliance with the April covenant test under the Group's bank facility will be tight and is taking further mitigating actions during the next four months to address this.

CEO, Simon Fox, said: "Whilst HMV has had a challenging year to date, it remains a profitable and cash-generative business and a powerful entertainment brand. The pace of change in the markets in which we operate underlines the urgency with which we must continue to transform this business.

"Progress at Waterstone's this year has been pleasing, and we remain on track to meet our business and financial objectives for the end of the first year of our turnaround programme." Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Get out now

and buy back at 12/14p.

The Sales fall Xmas2010 is not much IMHO, - there was snow and many folks ordering on-line - or elsewhere for Flat-TV's, game consols, etc. The sp "anticipated it" the Ann. and sp drop is MM's making sure they don't get lumbered with too much stock....
Music (& Books) have largely become unexciting -

Is this a bit like Woolworths..? With the difference being that HMV has external reasons to be fearful their business is tending lower year-on-year, whereas Woolworth was losing business because the Directors didn't care (and had no business nous between them). Perhaps they both sare the same style Directors...anyone...?
I fear HMV brand (dog) is soon their only asset, but no-one plays records anymore.

Mitzy is spot-on . . .. but with a large dose of "Wait and see" . . . IMHO.

hmmmm - further fall tomorrow - or slight bounce?? they still turn a profit but not keen on the bank facility situation in april - hmv need to modernise quick or be consigned to history over a period of time imo

good streamlining steps though which may suggest a little bounce tomorrow perhaps? we will see - nearly bought today but left it - glad i didnt buy

surely a dead duck but insufficient to go for to short