I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

agreed 100%


Looking at sets last week it does seem as though a certain amount of manipulation is going on in order to push the price up. Not convinced we should be buying @ 2.5p+ at this time.

ains



latest news seems to be

23:09 GMT, Wednesday 5th February 2003 -- by Jason Crawley
Updated: 01:20

GWR have signed up with Telewest Broadband to broadcast four of its digital stations into millions of cable homes.

Telewest will broadcast the four stations - Classic FM, the Core, Planet Rock and The Storm - from February 7 on its digital cable service, which will increase the stations' potential cable and satellite audience to eight million. Classic FM, which currently transmits on EPG 922, will be moving position according to a report in the Digital Spy Telewest Broadband forum.

The deal comes after last week's Rajar figures showed that 7.5 million people are listening to radio via digital platforms, with GWR's digital stations reaching 80% of the population and The Storm having a potential digital radio audience of 13 million.

Simon Ward, GWR Group New Media and Digital Director, said: "Given that our aim is to connect our brands to consumers in all ways that appeal to them, this makes perfect sense and will only increase the availability of our brands, audience reach and audience share."

GWR have also announced the completion of a sophisticated new transmission network for Classic FM, constructed by NTL Broadcast under its 25 million twelve-year transmission contract with the group.

Haystack

An apology to ainsoph (and a polish to his halo too!)

F

Heard about some of the problems you had on the other site ainsoph. Are you still posting there our have you effectivly abandoned the place.

On the subject of twt you are possibly aware of this Hong Kong Billionare, a Mr Li. Rumour has it that he is shopping around for Energis although I fail to understand how that could be achieved as it is in insolvency.

Something to be aware of I surpose.

BTW over on the premium side here I currently maintain a thread (epic tele) for telecom traders and investors. I am not sure if I will stay here (premium) as much depends on level 2 pricing and effective formatting as a tool. However will keep you informed

Paul

Hi Paul

I think it would be fair to say that the situation over there has gotten totally out of control. I mostly talk via IM to like minded people these days - more lively discussion but no slagging or spam :-))

Yes ..... I saw the talk about MR Li shoping for a UK telecom. There was some vague suggestion of TWT but think that's totally out of order.

What is a little puzzling is the way TWT has been moving forward despite markets falling back. Not sure but get an impression there may be some stake building going on. A lot of biggish buy trades at above the general going rate. I still have at least 10K to buy a few of my traders back but still hoping for sub 2p ..... in an ideal world.

I haven't sprung for any money yet and therefore not on premium site but may dip my toe in - this coming week. I only use the other side for L2 and the fbb because ME is too expensive for L2. I will always be interested in a cheaper and/or better service.



ains

Indeed ainsoph. when Bullshare introduces L2 there is going to have to be some hard thinking. For example the two serices that I rely on is level 2 and streaming charts. Fundermentals I get from the FT.com site via a small annual subscription.

Since Croc left I hardly ever post now on the premium BB.

If we migrate here we may need to ask the other side to close the TAG thread, but thats an issue we can face if necessary

I have streaming charts via Market Eye - which I prefer but guess L2 will be what it is all about as far as traders are concerned. I have Investor Ease for fundamentals and CD refs.

From my point of view L2 is relatively expensive as I don't use any of the other services - also irritated by the constant cut off's when market is busy.

As you say, we can think about the TAG thread in due course.

Lastly, I should say there is a need for a lively and busy free or near free bb - at the moment the other guys have the edge on features but do believe the 'free speech' is now working against it. I talk privately to maybe 50 traders/investors and most just don't bother with the bb anymore in terms of talking seriously about shares/investing.


ains

ainsoph

There are some excellent threads (DAY, etc) on the other side but the threads for speculative shares (bombed out telecoms/pharms/etc with new potential) are populated by ignorant and abusive rampers and shorters.

I guess you are right on both scores but I get easily bored and in addition to my longer term interests I do like to bottom fish. TWT is a typical example - I like the longer term prospects and happy to hold for the D4E and beyond but they are also good for swing trading and even intraday because of newsflow or even the absence of newsflow. It is unfortunate that these kind of shares attract the wrong kind of poster/investor. Sadly everyone loses out as the more skilled or informed posters don't bother.


ains

worth a read

BT Q3 profit seen up
By Braden Reddall, UK telecoms correspondent


LONDON (Reuters) - BT (LSE: BT.L - news - msgs) is expected to report a rise in third-quarter earnings this Thursday, under a cloud of worries about growing competitive threats and the state of its pension fund in a slumping equity ADVERTISEMENT

market.


Ben Verwaayen had barely settled in to his new London office overlooking St. Paul's Cathedral when the new BT chief executive had to preside over the last set of third-quarter results.


The country's dominant telecom group had just suffered months of major upheaval, selling businesses as well as a record-breaking tranche of shares to cut a 30 billion-pound debt mountain by more than half.


Verwaayen, whose arrival was seen as the start of better times, had little specific to offer at last year's third-quarter results. But his plan for "substantially" cheaper high-speed Internet access would set the tone for BT's year.


Analysts do not expect next week's third-quarter results to prove momentous. But Verwaayen, as head of a business focused mostly on the less exciting but steadier UK domestic market, will be under pressure to deliver signs of growth in both earnings and the number of broadband Internet users.


"If boring and steady means it is on track to meet its targets, then that is a good thing," said David Brundish, telecoms analyst at JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM_pj - news) .


Verwaayen promised last April to deliver compound annual growth of 25 percent in earnings per share (EPS) and six to eight percent growth in revenue in the three years to 2005. However, he had to abandon the latter target three months ago when it became clear it may prove too ambitious.


Analysts expect revenue for the quarter to December of between 4.76 billion and 4.83 billion pounds, representing at the high-end growth of less than four percent over the third quarter last year.


Forecasts for earnings per share range from 3.5 pence to 4.0 pence, up from 2.4p last year, thanks to cost cutting and its debt reduction drive, which helped lower interest payments. Pre-tax profit estimates range from 460 million to 530 million pounds, compared with 381 million a year ago.


HOW MUCH NEED FOR SPEED?


BT slashed the wholesale price of broadband in half last April to less than 15 pounds per month, as part of a goal to have one million broadband customers on its network by mid-2003 and somewhere around five million by 2006.


Pierre Danon, chief executive of BT Retail, said on Friday that more than 100,000 broadband users had signed up to BT's network in January, putting the total at well over half a million.


But with cable rivals NTL (NYSE: NLI - news) and Telewest (LSE: TWT.L - news) clawing their way out of financial crisis, BT has formidable competition for broadband access. NTL and Telewest, though their networks pass by just over half of Britain's homes, boast more than three quarters of a million broadband users in total.


BT's traditional market for voice calls is also under threat from two strong retail players: number one UK supermarket Tesco (LSE: TSCO.L - news - msgs) and Europe's largest mobile phone retailer Carphone Warehouse (LSE: CPW.L - news) . Both recently announced plans to sell home phone services as well.


Furthermore, analysts have wondered for months how much BT will have to contribute to its pension fund to make up for stock market losses. Opinion is divided on the potential impact, but they agree that the uncertainty is weighing on the shares.


"Apart from exceptional Q3 results, the positive trigger towards our target price is more likely to come when the latest valuation of BT's pension deficit is published in May," SG Securities analyst Steve Trowbridge said of his 230p target.


BT shares were up two percent at 177 1/2 pence on Friday afternoon. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value over the past 12 months, but outperformed European peers in the DJ Stoxx European telecoms index by five percent in that time.

Edging up again today on low volume - less than a million shares in two hours


ains

NTL implies 1GB/day broadband cap
Monday 10th February 2003
From The Register


NTL has published a new user policy which defines a "normal" data download cap of 1GB/day.

Here is the spiel

ntl: home's broadband and dial-up services are intended for normal recreational or educational use by individuals and families and our pricing and network architecture have been designed accordingly. Customers who use the services more heavily than a normal home user will reduce the performance of the network for other customers.


"Normal use" of the service is defined as up to 1 gigabyte downstream of data transfer daily (which equates to approximately 200 music tracks, 650 short videos, 10,000 pictures or around 100 large software programmes downloaded per day).

In a statement on NTLHellWorld, the company's curious sheep in sheep's clothing website, NTL adds:

"The objective of this clarification of the policy is to ensure that customers continue to get a great broadband service at all times. The vast majority of customers will not be affected by this at all.

ntl will only be contacting the small percentage of customers whose use of the service PERSISTENTLY exceeds normal levels, thereby potentially reducing the overall product performance for THE VAST MAJORITY OF other customers."

For one customer's reaction, check out this protest site: www.dont-pay-ntl.co.uk. It explains in big red letters why the new terms are 90 per cent worse than before.

NTL's user policy makes for interesting reading too: it's here.

Online farmers are reaping the rewards
By Robert Uhlig, Farming Correspondent
(Filed: 11/02/2003)


Farmers are turning to the internet in increasing numbers to challenge the domination of the supermarkets. More than 300 million worth of farm produce was sold online last year.

Farm trade on the internet was unheard of five years ago, but last year one in 10 of Britain's 300,000 farms marketed produce on the internet, generating sales of 325 million, according to a study by the National Farmers' Union. The study scotched the image of farmers as often isolated and out of touch, relying on visits to local markets to catch up on news.

Nowadays, more than eight out of 10 farmers are connected to the internet, using it primarily for information, research, banking and news.

Growth in internet use grinds to a halt
By Robert Uhlig
(Filed: 10/02/2003)


The growth in internet use is grinding to a halt, according to research by Oftel, the telecoms watchdog.

It found that despite a huge take-up of high-speed broadband services, demand has levelled off now that half the population is online.

Last year, both dial-up and broadband net access from home remained static at about 42 per cent of the population in Britain, according to Oftel.

Hoping that the figure will rise, the Government will begin campaign in May to persuade people to connect to the internet. National television advertisements and direct mailing will be targeted at the over-55s, women and ethnic minorities - the groups that are currently under represented on the internet.

However, according to Jupiter Research, the independent analysts, there is little room for growth. It predicts that the number of internet users will continue to grow slowly to about 51 per cent of the population in 2007.

Ministers have been studying countries such as South Korea, where six out of 10 people have broadband connections at home, to determine why internet usage is slowing in Britain.

A team from Brunel University found that new approaches were needed for broadband services to appeal to the half of the population yet to go online. In Korea, broadband is targeted at mothers, stressing the value of broadband services to, for example, education.

The researchers from Brunel University concluded that internet service providers needed to make broadband a critical utility similar to electricity, instead of regarding it as a desirable luxury.

Volumes are picking up at 6.6 million - spread has narrowed and we have edged up a little

ains



NTL wakes up to broadband PR catastrophe

Unlimited "is a trade name"

By Mike Magee: Monday 10 February 2003, 11:35 Inquirer


SUITS AT NTL woke up this morning to find they had a PR nightmare on their hands and have apologised for the "poor communications" that generated the furore, which broke over the weekend.
Aizad Hussain, managing director of NTL:Home, apologised for "poor communication" of its new policy limiting its broadband connections to 1GB downloads a day.

He has written a little letter in which he claims NTL will be "very flexible" about the download limits, but claimed some customers had confused gigabyte limits with kilobit speeds.

One of the problems is that NTL advertised an unlimited service, and customers were up in arms about this. Hussain now defines this as having a "trade name" unlimited and he says its broadband service is no longer called unlimited.

He said the intention of NTL was only to limit very frequent or persistent "heavy network use" that would affect other customers. Now NTL will only contact customers who exceed the daily data limit for three or more days in a consecutive 14-day (fortnight) period, he said.

One telling line in the statement is that the new Ts&Cs will not affect gaming applications at all this is of particular interest because as we reported last month, NTL has a deal with Xbox Online here in Blighty, aimed ot undercut BT Openworld.

One gigabyte of data a day, he said, is equal to 100 large software programs, 200 music tracks, 650 short videos, 10,000 pictures and 20,000 web pages.

Customers won't be disconnected but will be advised to moderate their limits.

Triple figure growth in European online sales - Visa EU




10 February 2003 - Consumer confidence in the Internet remains buoyant with total EU e-commerce sales for the last quarter of 2002 up by 136% compared to the same period in 2001, according to data from Visa EU.

The card organisation says over the last three months of 2002 European Web sites sold over 2.5 billion to Visa cardholders online, with over 31 million transactions processed in total.

Recent strong quarterly growth has helped sustain the increase with online transactions in the last quarter up by 40% compared to the previous three months. Sales volumes also increased, with the amount spent online up by a third (33%) in the latter half of last year.

NTL seeks to clarify 1GB/day broadband cap
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 10/02/2003 at 12:42 GMT


NTL has been stunned by the outcry from its broadband customers over the cableco's decision to cap usage of its broadband service to 1 gigabyte a day.

The announcement was sneaked out on Friday but caused such an uproar that senior execs have been forced to step in and clarify the cableco's position.

A protest site set up on Friday calling for customers not to pay their NTL bills until the matter is resolved, has already received more than 30,000 hits and 100s of emails from angry users.

In a poll of 760 punters on the cableco's own pet nthellworld.com site, half said they planned to ditch NTL and find another broadband provider because of the cap.

Others argue the cap defeats the whole reason for having broadband and are looking at ways to get NTL to overturn its decision.

However, in an open letter on nthellworld.com, ntl:home MD, Mr Hussain admitted that the cap was "poorly communicated" but insisted that it would stay.

In a Q&A the company said: "Our objective is only to limit very frequent or persistent heavy network use that can impact other customers. Therefore we will ONLY contact customers who exceed the daily data limit for three or more days in any consecutive 14-day period.

"If you occasionally exceed your data limit, it will not be a problem. Remember our goal is to give freedom and easy usage to our customers. This rule ensures that you have peace of mind and that we are able to reduce the unfair prolonged usage by a small number."

Indeed, NTL insists that the limit has been imposed more as a guideline. It is not trying to penalise "ordinary" users. Instead, it wants to target persistent abusers of its broadband service, many of whom, its believed, are running businesses on what the cableco insists is a domestic service.

It's still too early to say whether NTL has managed to appease its hacked-off punters.

Reply concerning Telewest, to: mynameispaul and ainsoph (several posts)
I've been a TWT supporter in the early days, anything that wakes up BT had to be good IMHO.
However, TWT is still in the hands of the Bankers, I understand, and any deal is likely to wipe-out shareholders...(doesn't it always?, we're not even consulted!).
The TWT action-group was/is professional & well intentioned but I'm not aware it achieved a "result" - as usual us small shareholders are cannon-fodder for the City "big-guns" - of course it's wrong but we are not orgainsed "before the event" - that's where the power will be..... If FTSE250 Co. will not address our concerns, board-room pay, dividends, overseas adventures, co jet etc....there will be an outflow of 1-2% of sharecap ( that's POWER!)- something that Institutions might consider a bellweather.

In the final analysis the only thing that matters is will you/me/we make money on out investment today, or tomorrow in TWT.

Their track-record isn't good, paying too much for trenches and too little to getting traffic - so their debt became unsustainable. Pretty low-tech stuf really.
If they couldn't get it right then (when there were "connectees" just waiting to sign up, ) WHAT chance have they got now, with AOL, NTL, BT all vieying for the punter's attention?
It may be true that more people are to be encouraged to use broadband, but it isn't without cost and all I see is these telcos cutting at each other's margiins.
That can't be good for investors. If that's the case, and I see no end to it, won't investors be stuffed once again?

I hear what you say hangon and the truest comment you have made is the one concerning 'will we make money from here'. I think we will - the 3% talked about is likely to be the minimum that will apply in a d4e. Our past calculations were based on around a post d4e a share minimum - meaning the current shares would be valued at a minimum 3p. This compares favourably with todays price. Over any period of time I would expect this to increase as markets improved and TWT demonstrated true profitability.

Did we make a difference - have a look aty what MONI shareholders got - half on one percent.

Retail shareholders should take more interest and you are absolutely right in thinking there is a need to get involved early in protecting your investment.

Is the market overcrowded - Not many alternatives to BSkyB but cable is one of them and can also offer broad band - the must have of the near future imho.


ains

Moved up again ..... 275 on the bid now with heavy early morning volume


ains

AINS,

TWT up 12% nice, hoping RED next one up.

Cheers

Ash