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hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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hilary - 11 Jun 2004 13:40 - 1736 of 11056

Could be seeing a window to enter the Cable long very soon. Imo, of course.

hodgins - 11 Jun 2004 13:55 - 1737 of 11056

I am sitting just a little below flat from around the earlier low of the morning (the width of my stops would probably scare a lot of you but small stakes-anyone else going to the ETrade function next Friday, quite a bit of Fx stuff for neonates like me) so I would be pleased if you could get those windows open

hilary - 12 Jun 2004 08:56 - 1738 of 11056

Date	Country/ Currency	Event	GMT	CONSENSUS	PREVIOUS	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
14-Jun	CAD	New Motor Vehicle Sales (m/m)	12:30	3.0%	4.1%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
Mon	JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	PPI Input s.a. (m/m)	8:30	1.3%	0.8%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	PPI Output n.s.a. (m/m)	8:30	0.4%	0.3%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Trade Balance	12:30	-USD45Bn	-USD46Bn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	FRF	CPI (m/m) (May)	6:45	0.3%	0.3%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	ITL	Industrial Production s.a. (m/m) (Apr)	7:30	0.2%	-0.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	CHF	Retail Sales (Real)	8:15	5.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	CHF	Producer Prices (m/m) (May)	8:15	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	0.6%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
	USD	Retail Sales Excluding Autos (May)	12:30	0.6%	-0.1%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
15-Jun	CAD	Manufacturing Shipments (m/m)	12:30	0.8%	3.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
Tue	JPY	Leading Economic Indicator (Apr)	5:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	66.7%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	CPI (m/m) (May)	8:30	0.4%	0.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	RPI (m/m) (May)	8:30	0.4%	0.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	CPI Ex Food & Energy (m/m) (May)	12:30	0.2%	0.3%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	CPI (m/m) (May)	12:30	0.5%	0.2%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Business Inventories (Apr)	12:30	0.4%	0.7%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Empire Manufacturing (Jun)	12:30	30	30.21	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Unversity of Michigan Confidence (Jun)	13:50	91	90.2	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR	ECB Weekly Financial Statement - Balance (Jun 11)	13:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR870.11Bn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR	ECB Weekly Currency Reserves (Jun 11)	13:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR175.2Bn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	NZD	Manufacturing Activity (Q1)	22:45	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	2.3%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	ITL	CPI (m/m) (May)	7:30	0.2%	0.2%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Greenspan Testifies at Senate Nomination Hearing	14:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Fed's Poole speech on Free Trade	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
	USD	Fed's Minehan Speech at Boston Fed Fiscal Policy Conference	12:00			< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

hilary - 12 Jun 2004 08:57 - 1739 of 11056

Date	Country/ Currency	Event	GMT	CONSENSUS	PREVIOUS	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
16-Jun	JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Monthly Report	5:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
Wed	GBP	Unemployment Rate (May)	8:30	2.9%	2.9%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	Unemployment Change ('000)	8:30	-7.0K	-6.0K	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Housing Starts (May)	12:30	1950K	1969K	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Building Permits (May)	12:30	1970K	1999K	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Industrial Production (May)	13:15	0.8%	0.8%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR	CPI (m/m) (May)	9:00	0.3%	0.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	AUD	Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index	0:30	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Fed's Guynn speech on the Economic Outlook	18:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
	USD	Fed's Broaddus speech on Economy				< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
17-Jun	CAD	International Securities Transactions (Apr)	12:30	-CAD3.0	CAD6.2	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
Thu	GBP	Retail Sales (m/m) (May)	8:30	0.6%	0.3%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Iniital Jobless Claims (Jun 12)	12:30	340K	325K	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Leading Indicators (May)	14:00	0.4%	0.1%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Philadelphia Fed. (Jun)	16:00	25	23.8	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR	Industrial Production (m/m) (Apr)	9:00	0.8%	-0.2%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia Monthly Bulletin	5:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
	CHF	Swiss National Bank Reports Monetary Policy Assessment				< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
18-Jun	JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	5:00	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
Fri	DEM	Producer Prices (m/m) (May)	6:00	0.4%	0.4%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	M4 Money Supply	8:30	0.6%	0.5%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	USD	Current Account Balance (Q1)	12:30	-USD140.4Bn	-USD127.5Bn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	ITL	Trade Balance (Trade) (Apr)	7:30	-EUR172Mn	EUR713Mn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	ITL	Industrial Orders s.a. (m/m) (Apr)	8:30	0.3%	-0.6%	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	EUR	Trade Balance (Apr)	9:00	EUR8200Mn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>
< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>	GBP	PSNCR (May)	8:30	GBP6.5Bn	-2.2Bn	< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Beeblebrox - 14 Jun 2004 07:55 - 1740 of 11056

grabbed a long 181.11
with tight stop

foale - 14 Jun 2004 08:27 - 1741 of 11056

Beeble...Did exactly what you did this am...
but after 2-3 failures at a rally...

have now reversed..

Nice to know that one of us will do well though :-)

edit: fall could extend quickly to as much as 1.7970-1.8000
but I am never that lucky

However mindful of that complete retracement of that rally to 1.8440
240 odd pips over a 12 hour period means that dollar bulls back in control
and I think that they are looking for more mileage yet

Hilary...thoughts this sunny morning?

Beeblebrox - 14 Jun 2004 08:30 - 1742 of 11056

yup david - not an encouraging bounce,
somewhat lacking in conviction,
i'm out now, and it's coming your way

hilary - 14 Jun 2004 08:51 - 1743 of 11056

Morning guys,

Atm, I see both Cable and EUR/USD as sells from shortly after 7am based upon a x-over of a couple of MA's. French CPI seems to be supporting the Euro though. UK data at 9:30 ...... let's see what that brings.

MightyMicro - 14 Jun 2004 09:27 - 1744 of 11056

G'morning Hil. Do you see a FOMC rise on June 30?

hilary - 14 Jun 2004 09:40 - 1745 of 11056

Good morning Derek. That's a really difficult question to answer and I really don't have a firm view on it, I'm afraid. I can only comment upon the market, which is currently pricing in a June rise.

Whilst the recent economic data has pointed to an early rise, there's a part of me which says that the Bush administration will want to delay and minimise rises for as long as possible so as not to jeopardise too greatly his chances of re-election.

foale - 14 Jun 2004 11:04 - 1746 of 11056

Bit if a battle at 1.8100

It was struggling to go lower from 1.8075 down to 1.8045 and the 15 min bars gave a clue with a bearish engulfing pattern

We have this mornings level of 18110 ish as resistance above
and this is the level that dollar bulls will likely use to try to turn back
those Cable lovers..using that as my short stop

MightyMicro - 14 Jun 2004 12:18 - 1747 of 11056

Hil: You've answered my question, it's currently in the price, But who knows, indeed.

Cheers

D

Beeblebrox - 14 Jun 2004 12:29 - 1748 of 11056

The swift rise from 176ish to 185ish over the past
few weeks was in my plan, and I expected the correction
to 183 - indeed was never totally convinced that was enough,
and forecast that we may correct to 181-182, which makes this
current level a critical point for cable.

If we can consolidate here, then I'm going to stick with my
forecast of 185-190 over the next say 4-8 weeks. If however we
break below 180, then all bets are off, but I think that scenario
is less likely. Would be interested to know what the charts and crystal
balls have to say about my thoughts......

and david, brilliant reverse, my excuse was i was watching ftse and dow
very carefully first thing !!!!

btw, i have no position currently, but having looked at the euro chart,
i'm itching to go long....

foale - 15 Jun 2004 07:37 - 1749 of 11056

Frustrating day yesterday of what felt like low volume small movements
probably set to continue for the rest of the week

Currently short...although flat and doing something more exciting probably the way to go atm

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 08:06 - 1750 of 11056

I'm short the Euro, foale, and have no position on Cable in the wake of Mervyn King's comments.

I think that a lot of eyes are on the US CPI data today as it could be a big pointer to US interest rate rises. The market had been pricing itself for the data to be released on Friday, then Thursday and now finally today. This delay has possibly prompted the inactivity in the market, imo.

GBP data at 9:30.

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 08:56 - 1751 of 11056

Covered my short for now. Looking for a buy signal next. Patience Rodders.

foale - 15 Jun 2004 13:13 - 1752 of 11056

sell FX ben fun today..still short
still bored...

though any attempts at 11860+ getting well sold into

09:30 figs provided a floor to todays action..
lets see what the 1:30 2:00 and 2:45 figs do

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 13:38 - 1753 of 11056

Was long into the figures. Sprayed into the spike. Awaiting Michigan now ....... Greenfingers talk should be a damp squib imo - he never gives anything away!

Beeblebrox - 16 Jun 2004 08:06 - 1754 of 11056

Well Mervyn has thrown me a bit of a wobbly.
Reading between the lines, he is a very worried man,
and is desperately trying to avoid a 'boom and bust'
scenatio - yet cable's 2 cents higher than when he spoke.
On top of that Greenbum has declared 'soft' rises for the
fed, .25 at a time, which has been priced in for some time.

I am tempted with a short term short from here, but as I've
got to go out a lot today, will take up position no 3.

Happy trading all, c.u. later.

hilary - 16 Jun 2004 08:26 - 1755 of 11056

Morning Beebs,

I had the EUR as a long a bit earlier and thought that Cable was going the same way so I longed them both just before they each came off 20+ pips. Sitting with them for now basically because I still see the EUR as a long although Cable clearly isn't yet, but I'm hoping that it will still come good for me. Is that what they call the Concorde method?

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