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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

MightyMicro - 14 Jun 2004 12:18 - 1747 of 11056

Hil: You've answered my question, it's currently in the price, But who knows, indeed.

Cheers

D

Beeblebrox - 14 Jun 2004 12:29 - 1748 of 11056

The swift rise from 176ish to 185ish over the past
few weeks was in my plan, and I expected the correction
to 183 - indeed was never totally convinced that was enough,
and forecast that we may correct to 181-182, which makes this
current level a critical point for cable.

If we can consolidate here, then I'm going to stick with my
forecast of 185-190 over the next say 4-8 weeks. If however we
break below 180, then all bets are off, but I think that scenario
is less likely. Would be interested to know what the charts and crystal
balls have to say about my thoughts......

and david, brilliant reverse, my excuse was i was watching ftse and dow
very carefully first thing !!!!

btw, i have no position currently, but having looked at the euro chart,
i'm itching to go long....

foale - 15 Jun 2004 07:37 - 1749 of 11056

Frustrating day yesterday of what felt like low volume small movements
probably set to continue for the rest of the week

Currently short...although flat and doing something more exciting probably the way to go atm

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 08:06 - 1750 of 11056

I'm short the Euro, foale, and have no position on Cable in the wake of Mervyn King's comments.

I think that a lot of eyes are on the US CPI data today as it could be a big pointer to US interest rate rises. The market had been pricing itself for the data to be released on Friday, then Thursday and now finally today. This delay has possibly prompted the inactivity in the market, imo.

GBP data at 9:30.

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 08:56 - 1751 of 11056

Covered my short for now. Looking for a buy signal next. Patience Rodders.

foale - 15 Jun 2004 13:13 - 1752 of 11056

sell FX ben fun today..still short
still bored...

though any attempts at 11860+ getting well sold into

09:30 figs provided a floor to todays action..
lets see what the 1:30 2:00 and 2:45 figs do

hilary - 15 Jun 2004 13:38 - 1753 of 11056

Was long into the figures. Sprayed into the spike. Awaiting Michigan now ....... Greenfingers talk should be a damp squib imo - he never gives anything away!

Beeblebrox - 16 Jun 2004 08:06 - 1754 of 11056

Well Mervyn has thrown me a bit of a wobbly.
Reading between the lines, he is a very worried man,
and is desperately trying to avoid a 'boom and bust'
scenatio - yet cable's 2 cents higher than when he spoke.
On top of that Greenbum has declared 'soft' rises for the
fed, .25 at a time, which has been priced in for some time.

I am tempted with a short term short from here, but as I've
got to go out a lot today, will take up position no 3.

Happy trading all, c.u. later.

hilary - 16 Jun 2004 08:26 - 1755 of 11056

Morning Beebs,

I had the EUR as a long a bit earlier and thought that Cable was going the same way so I longed them both just before they each came off 20+ pips. Sitting with them for now basically because I still see the EUR as a long although Cable clearly isn't yet, but I'm hoping that it will still come good for me. Is that what they call the Concorde method?

Beeblebrox - 16 Jun 2004 08:37 - 1756 of 11056

you use whatever method suits you babe,
i'm sure you'll soon go supersonic
xxx

Tellon - 16 Jun 2004 08:48 - 1757 of 11056

Morning All, Been sitting back and watching cable for the past few days.

My view now:-

EUR/USD & USD/JPY both show technicals of USD going down. Cable the technicals are a bit mixed. Although Cable has bounced of 38.2% fib and stopped just above 50% (Also the same support from a couple of days ago)

Ive left an Entry Order for 1.8365. With some faith in dollar weakness and possible good news for cable. This could push us up to the 485 resistance.

Oil +0.26
GOLD Aug +0.6 DEC +0.8
$ Weakness there as well.

Tellon - 17 Jun 2004 12:00 - 1758 of 11056

Right..

Upward channel, Resistance breached.

Long Cable @ 1.8361

Tellon - 17 Jun 2004 14:40 - 1759 of 11056

Exited for -12

Tellon - 18 Jun 2004 12:47 - 1760 of 11056

Wow.. Im here all on my own.

Made a nice 50pips going long this morning. Im seeing how it handles resistance now but possibly more legs on it.

Sue 42 - 18 Jun 2004 13:08 - 1761 of 11056

I'm here - I just can't decide which way to go!

hilary - 19 Jun 2004 14:30 - 1762 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

21-Jun

JPY

Machine Tools Orders (y/y)

6:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

55.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Mon

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (y/y) (May)

7:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

0.7%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CHF

Industrial Production (q/q) (Q1)

7:15

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

6.7%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CHF

M0 Money Supply (annual) (m/m)

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

5.8%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

ECB Weber speech (Frankfurt)

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

ECB Tumpei-Gugerell speech (Frankfurt)

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

 

EUR

EU-Japan Summit (Tokyo)

 

 

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

22-Jun

AUD

New Motor Sales (m/m)

1:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-1.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Tue

FRF

Consumer Spending (m/m) (May)

6:45

-0.6%

1.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CHF

Trade Balance (May)

7:15

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CHF0.49Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

ITL

Consumer Confidence Inustrial s.a. (Jun)

7:30

98.0

97.1

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

DEM

ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Jun)

9:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

46.4

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

CPI (m/m) (May)

11:00

0.5%

0.2%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

CPI Ex Core 8 (May)

11:00

1.5%

1.8%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Leading Indicators (m/m) (May)

12:30

0.6%

0.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

ECB Weekly Financial Statement - Balance (Jun 18)

13:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

869.05Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

ECB Weekly Currency Reserves (Jun 18)

13:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

175.2Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Merchants Trade Balance Total

23:50

JPY800Bn

JPY1079.1Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

 

USD

FOMC Santomero speech (Philaedelphia)

 

 

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

23-Jun

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (May)

3:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

55.4%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Wed

FRF

CPI (m/m) (May)

6:45

0.4%

0.3%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

ITL

Retail Sales (m/m) (Apr)

7:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-0.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

Bank of England Minutes (9/10 June Mtg)

8:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Wholesale Sales (m/m) (Apr)

12:30

0.2%

4.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

NZD

Current Account Balance (Q1)

22:45

-0.26Bn

-1.92Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (m/m) (Apr)

23:50

1..0%

1.0%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (m/m) (Apr)

23:50

1.1%

1.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (q/q) (Q2)

23:50

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

5.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

 

JPY

Adjusted Merchandise Trade (May)

23:50

JPY1084.2Bn

JPY985Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

hilary - 19 Jun 2004 14:31 - 1763 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

24-Jun

ITL

Trade Balance Non-EU (May)

7:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR372Mn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Thu

ITL

Business Confidence (Jun)

7:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

94.2

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey

10:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 19)

12:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

336K

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Durable Goods Orders (May)

12:30

1.5%

-3.2%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

New Home Sales (May)

14:00

1120K

1093K

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (q/q) (Q1)

22:45

1.5%

0.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Tokyo CPI (m/m) s.a. (Jun)

23:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-0.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (m.m) s.a. (Jun)

23:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

0%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

National Consumer Prices s.a. (May)

23:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-0.3%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

National CPI Ex Fresh Food (m/m) (May)

23:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-0.1%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

JPY

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

NZD

Current Account (Q1)

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

-NZD1.9Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

MPC members testify to TSC

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

 

CAD

BoC Dodge speech (Paris)

 

 

 

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

25-Jun

AUD

US Conference Board of Australia Leading Index

0:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Fri

DEM

IFO Industrial Survey (Business Climate)

8:00

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

96.1

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

ECB EZ - Current Account s.a. (Apr)

8:00

9Bn

5.1Bn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

GBP

BBA Releases UK Mortgage Lending Figures

8:30

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

EUR

Industrial New Orders s.a. (m/m) (Apr)

9:00

1.1%

1.5%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Retail Sales (m/m) (Apr)

12:30

0.7%

1.2%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

CAD

Retail Sales Less Autos (m/m) (Apr)

12:30

0.2%

1.0%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

GDP (Q1)

12:30

4.5%

4.4%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Personal Consumption (Q1)

12:30

3.9%

3.9%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

GDP Price Deflator (Q1)

12:30

2.6%

2.6%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

University of Michigan Confidence (Jun)

13:50

93

95.2

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

USD

Existing Home Sales (May)

14:00

6.5Mn

6.64Mn

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Tellon - 19 Jun 2004 15:15 - 1764 of 11056

Looks like a week to go long NZD

hilary - 19 Jun 2004 15:28 - 1765 of 11056

Central Bank Watch - Monetary Policy Meetings in 2004 < ![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]> < ![endif]>

Major Central Banks Overview

Central Bank

Next Meeting

Likely Change

Last Change

Current Interest Rate

FED (Federal Reserve)

29/30 Jun, 2004

Eventual rate increase

25-Jun-03

1.0%

BOJ (Bank of Japan)

25 Jun, 2004

No rate change expected

12-Nov-03

0.001%

ECB (European Central Bank)

1 Jul, 2004

No rate change expected

5-June-03

2.0%

BOE (Bank of England)

7/8 Jul, 2004

Eventual rate increase

10 June 2004

4.5%

BOC (Bank of Canada)

20 Jul, 2004

N/K

8-June-04

2.00%

SNB (Swiss National Bank)

16 Sept, 2004

No rate change expected

18-06-2004

0.0/1.0%

Riksbank (Sweden Central Bank)

19 Aug, 2004

No rate change

28-April-04

2.00%

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)

6 Jul, 2004

Move likely later in year

03-Dec-03

5.25%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

 

Asia

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Hong Kong

2.50%

2.75%

31-May-04

Base Rate

India

4.50%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

21-Apr-04

Repo

Japan

0.001%

0.002%

12-Nov-03

O/N Call Rate

Philippines

9.00%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Apr-04

Repo Rate

Singapore

0.75%

0.69%

Jan-04

3M Interbank Rate

South Korea

3.77%

3.75%

10-Jun-04

O/N Call Rate

Taiwan

1.375%

1.625%

26-Jun-03

Discount Rate

Thailand

1.25%

1.25%

9-Jun-04

BOT 14 Day Repo

 

Europe

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Bulgaria

3.83%

2.55%

26-May-04

Base Rate

Czech Republic

2.0%

2.25%

31-Jul-03

2 Week Repo

Denmark

2.0%

2.5%

06-Jun-03

Discount Rate

Euroland

2.0%

2.5%

5-June-03

Main Refi Rate

Hungary

11.50%

12%

4-May-04

Base Rate

Israel

4.20%

4.40%

Jun-04

Short Term Lending Rate

Norway

1.75%

2.00%

12-Mar-04

Deposit rate

Poland

5.25%

5.50%

26-Jun-03

Reference Rate

Russia

14%

16%

14-Jan-04

Refinance Rate

Slovakia

5.00%

6.25%

29-Apr-04

2 Week Repo

Sweden

2.00%

2.50%

28-April-04

Repo Rate

Switzerland

0.0/1.0%

0.00/0.75%

18-06-2004

Libor target band

Turkey

22.0%

24.0%

17-Mar-04

O/N Borrowing

Ukraine

7%

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

5-Dec-02

Discount Rate

United Kingdom

4.5%

4.0%

10 June 2004

Repo Rate

 

Latin America

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Brazil

15.79%

16%

Jun-04

SELIC O/N Rate - Target

Chile

1.81%

1.75%

9-Jun-04

Overnight Rate

Colombia

7.72%

7.70%

Mar-04

90-day Certificate of Deposit

Mexico

6.18%

6.00%

19-Apr-04

28 Day

Peru

1.75%

1.085%

8-Jan-04

Overnight Rate

Venezuela

12.0%

11.6%

28-May-04

3M Bill Rate

 

Middle East & Africa

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Egypt

7.207%

7.36%

8-Jan-04

182-day Treasury Bill

South Africa

8.00%

8.50%

8-Jun-04

Repo Rate

 

North America

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Canada

2.00%

2.00%

8-June-04

O/N Call Rate

United States

1.0%

1.25%

25-Jun-03

Federal Funds

 

Oceania

Country

Current Interest Rate

Previous

Last Change

Key Rate

Australia

5.25%

5.0%

03-Dec-03

Cash Rate

Indonesia

7.33%

7.42%

2-Jun-04

O/N Intervention Rate Rate

New Zealand

5.75%

5.50%

9-Jun-04

Cash Rate

< ![if !supportEmptyParas]> < ![endif]>

Tellon - 20 Jun 2004 20:32 - 1766 of 11056

Do you think they will raise US rates this month?

Stop Entry Order NZD/USD .6320 SL@ .6270

Resistance / Support Levels for GBP today.

| [ GBP/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE]--[RECOMMENDATION]----------| [POSITION]
: 1.8605(S) |daily high Apr 1----------|flat on a failure | [LONG at]
: 1.8505(S) |61.8% of 1.9140 - 1.7480 -|take profit, buy break | [1.8388]
: 1.8485(S) |daily high Jun 2----------|flat on a failure |
: 1.8445(M) |daily high Jun 10---------|flat on a failure |Open|18/06/04

: 1.8381 | Sunday 20:30 GMT |

: 1.8310(M) |hourly support Jun 18-----|sell stops below | |
: 1.8255(M) |pullback low Jun 18-------|buy a bounce |TGT |1.8500
: 1.8185(M) |61.8% of 1.8045 - 1.8405 -|sell a break below |Stop|1.8300
: 1.8045(M) |pullback low Jun 14-------|cover on a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============
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