Main Web Site : www.henderson-morley.com

On line shop web site : http://www.herpesexpert.com (Frost and Simpson)

Investor Relations email : investors@henderson-morley.com

Henderson Morley is a drug discovery company

The company has been developed specifically to carry out preliminary sourcing and screening of candidates to combat diseases caused by the herpes family of viruses and certain other DNA viruses

Latest GECR update 15th October 2006

Latest GE&CR update - 15th Oct 2006 :


The news investors have all been waiting for - regarding negotiations with a US dermatological pharmaceutical firm has finally been unveiled. The licence has been granted under an agreement to
Cutanea, a U.S. pharmaceutical company, specialising in the development of dermatology products in the US market.

The licence is for new applications of ICVT for the treatment of dermatological conditions in humans. The agreement and takes the form of an exclusive American, Mexican and Canadian wide licence to bring products to market through a programme of pre-clinical and clinical development of treatments either by Cutanea or through a sub-licence. Under the terms of the Agreement, Henderson Morley will receive up to 6.675 million dollars in development and commercialisation milestone payments up to the point at which the application receives regulatory approval, and will receive royalties on net sales thereafter.

Under its business plan, Henderson Morley has stated its belief that, following clinical development and regulatory licence approval, sales of the product in excess of $1.5 billion could be achieved over the subsequent ten year period. This would give a potential royalty to Henderson Morley in excess of $115 million over this term.

As a drug discovery company, it is imperative that Henderson continues to grant licenses to further develop its technology portfolio. This is the group's third ICVT license agreement. Encouragingly, Cutanea has a great management team with a proven track record of commercialising dermatology products.

Meanwhile, the company has announced that it has been working away on a vaccine against Koi Carp Herpes virus. The group believes it is now ready to start field trials of a
candidate vaccine, in a collaboration with the Internationally renowned Hagerman
Aquaculture Research Institute in Idaho USA. The initial immunogenicity studies should produce results within 6 months, enabling Henderson Morley scientists to optimise the vaccine formulation, with a view to securing a product licence from the veterinary authorities as soon as practicable.

Clearly activity at Henderson Morley has been significant in recent weeks. The licensing announcement is very encouraging, but with the news now out of the way, the shares have eased - a classic case of buy on the rumour, sell on the news. That said, the stock has now pulled back below the recent placing price. With so much going on at the company, further newsflow in the shorter term is far from unlikely.

*Henderson Morley is a corporate client of Bishopsgate Communications which is owned by RSH, the ultimate owner of GE&CR.

Forecasts and a formal recommendation are suspended ahead of the publication of a detailed note next month.

Haystack
I agree with half of what you are saying but who knows, may be the deals will keep coming?
This will definitely be marked up first thing on Monday and could go back to the 6p days.

A bit of stuff from the other side.


HML float price was 4p - without any licences or partnerships.


The stock is still undervalud on the US deal alone which could net them 100M over a 10 year period.This is achievable according to GECR.

So lets say they achieve 100M over a 10 year period from the US deal.

***10M a year for easy figures.

***Say 6M a year profit on a PE of say 15 = Mckcap of 90M from the US deal alone,dis regarding everything else.

Mckcap at the moment is 14M--3P PER SHARE.

***So at 90M the sp would be 19p per share.Sp if we had another deal similar we are looking at a Mckcap of 150M-200m OR 30P===50P per share.

Driver - interesting stuff, and thanks for that.

I bought some of these early last year and had a good profit in them until the terms of the deal were taken badly by the market back in September.

I was then looking at a loss, but I did some more work on the company and decided it was basically fine and that the fall was overdone, as most market movements seem to be these days, and bought some more to average down.

The price then fell again and I was looking at an even bigger loss, and I'd really put this one on the 2-5 year list, so I was pleasantly surprised when it all took off again today, and I'm now back in profit.

Question is, I'm off to Florence tomorrow until Wednesday - Christmas present from Mrs 6, top gift I thought - and so, do I put on a sell order for Monday morning, or do I run it and hope the price doesn't collapse again?

Incidentally, wasn't this one of ravydavygravy's tips? Anyone know what happened to him, he doesn't seem to post any more?

He was so well informed on the penny shares and he was always happy to share information.

Harry6
I don't think there is a chance of a collapse not before Wednesday anyway there is going to be speculation on how big the deal may be, is there anymore in the pipe line. If in doubt you could always sell half.

Driver thanks for your quantitative opinions, I will be waiting and seeing, hope you are right....

i have made quite a lot of money trading HML in the past, and have been fortunate enough to take my profits before sp collapsed ..... on at least 2/3 occasions!


Chart below may prove some help to you guys ....... watch out for 200 dma at about 3.20 and/or perhaps resistance at 3.80

cynic
Cheers it looks like break out then at 3.8 I think we will see that Mon morning or will we?

Todays Sat Mail 13/01/2007

Drugs minnow HML more than doubled to 305p on confirmation it is in late stage negotiations with an aim listed life science co.about a collaboration which may lead to the grant of a licence in respect of another project from its portfolio.


Could this be the company that HML are in talks with.

http://www.tepnel.com/

Why do you think this could be the company?

I think the price will shoot up in the morning, 3.8p could be the resistance level as Cynic says, but I will hange on and sell when the price starts to dip.... Keep watching thoughs screens on Monday!

It could be one of many companies heres another.

http://www.alltracel.com/


From UK-Analyst

"It was another spectacular day for the shares in Henderson Morley* (HML). The drugs discovery firm, which is a favourite among retail investors, saw its shares rise sharply on heavy volumes. In an announcement released late afternoon, the company said that it was in the late stages of negotiations with an AIM traded life sciences company. Speculation over the identity of the third party was rampant on investment bulletin boards, stirring buyers into action as almost 250 individual share purchases went through in brisk trade. The shares closed the session 1.55p higher at 3.05p as Henderson said a further announcement detailing the particulars would be unveiled within 7 days.".

emailed to over 40,000 subscribers

not sure how this hangs together .....
Harry .... i do not "have a downer" on HML .... indeed, i made quite a good profit out it in the past ..... in this instance, i have merely posted a chart and made the very accurate observation that 2/3 times in the past HML has only flattered greatly to deceive even more appallingly .... that is not to say that HML sp will not shoot ahead on Monday as hot money piles in ..... whether or not sp will warrant its hypothetical new found heights remains to be seen, but it is amazing (to some) how often the expectation far exceeds the actuality.

on the other hand, i do think PRTY is a load of rubbish and would not touch it with yours let alone mine ...... to say sp has risen 30 or is it 40% is deceptive .... more to the point is how far has it (still) fallen and what confidence can you place in its management (or future) when the founders have been selling millions and millions of shares?

by the way, why do you feel it necessary to have a greatly detaiuled knowledge of a company to make a valid judgement on whether to buy or not? ..... in some ways, that can be a hindrance (hence so many still stuck in SEO) .... to my mind, and many others, the important thing is basically momentum and whether sp is likley to keep rising at least pro tem (or even falling if shorting) ...... what the company actually does is comparatively unimportant, other than perhaps its sector ......

Dow Index is an interesting example ....... though it is undoubtedly still on a strong upward trend, it has just hit yet again 12575 (after hours), which in the past has proved a stubborn resistance ...... one could therefore make a good argument for taking a short position on Monday, albeit that sooner, probably rather than later, that resistance will be broken and the index will surge upwards again.

i'm sure you will disagree (lol!)

Harry .... you seem to have gone very quiet ...... trust you are not beginning to doubt that cynic is a total arsehole after all! ...... that said, i confess to being surprised myself at the current short-lived nature of the sp surge.

cynic
Harry's gone to Florence so his offline.

well i trust he (and you) have acted prudently

i would guess an awful lot haven't! ..... sp now well below opening and 20 million traded against 2.5 norm

actually finished with 41.5 million traded and at the bottom of it's range today!

having been told that i talked total rubbish - often true, but certainly not always - about the perils of this share, i shall just say that i for one will AVOID and think others might be well advised to follow suit!

Totally agree with Cynic in so far that the s/p of the vast majority of micro caps are determined by one variable and that is MOMENTUM fed by volume traded. ..@+ J

this is doing a repeat of last year, pump pump pump, it goes to 6p and then bang.. the news is not whats expected and poor buggers see shares at 1.5p again

if PIs have got hammered hard enough, there may be a worthwhile point to buy (and sell) before the promised announcement ...... something south of 1.8p might be a price to start looking to buy

curiouser and curiouser, said Alice, as she disappeared down the rabbit hole ....... sp down another large slug this morning (about 25%) ...... someone who e-mailed out a Buy note to 40,000 potential punters is either about to retire in style or has lost his shirt ...... and of course Cynic was talking total bollox when he advocated great caution, wasn't he!

Cynic you know i .,and many others would never think that of you!!!!