cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
cynic
- 26 Jun 2015 15:33
- 17946 of 21973
if you've got the time to glue yourself to the screen, then there's is and will be plenty of dosh to be made in both/either directions - or lost if you make a complete pig's ear! :-)
Claret Dragon
- 26 Jun 2015 17:09
- 17947 of 21973
Pigs ear today
deltazero
- 26 Jun 2015 22:01
- 17948 of 21973
absolutely cynic - agreed
sorry to hear the pigs ear claret - hope it turns for you
the good news is that greece has rejected the 5 month bailout extension ;
greek gov meets tonight
deltazero
- 26 Jun 2015 23:21
- 17949 of 21973
fantastic news - greece to hold a referendum on the eu bailout which the greek gov has already rejected :-) - that will be a big fat NO then - real looking fwd to the markets re-opening assuming the eu dont come in with an improved offer.......................
cynic
- 27 Jun 2015 06:31
- 17950 of 21973
yet tsipras thinks greece can still remain within the eurozone if i have read that correctly
guess the outcome will depend on how strong an argument the less-loony guys can put forward for accepting the bitter pill
sure glad i'm not greek!
==============
IG sunday trading markets will give a clue as to what the markets think
i should imagine serious volatility will be the order of the day for the next 10 days
not sure whether or not i'm glad to be on holiday and thus unable to monitor as i usually do
Chris Carson
- 27 Jun 2015 08:24
- 17951 of 21973
Day Traders paradise cyners, which rules me out, risky not so much FTSE but certainly Dow in normal market conditions (when they actually exist) let alone recent chaos :0)
deltazero
- 27 Jun 2015 10:13
- 17952 of 21973
cynic - aye - volatility should be the order of the day / week et cetera - more importantly enjoy the holiday
Latest verdict from Deutsche Bank:
“We would consider the recent turn of events as a particularly negative market outcome”.
yummy - perfect......................... :-)
it seems history about to be confirmed ref the greeks as described by one of their own philosophers - nothing has changed just a different generation............... that was one of the things aside from markets et al i was banking on.. some humans so predictable
deltazero
- 27 Jun 2015 10:13
- 17953 of 21973
chris - make hay while chaos abounds ;
Chris Carson
- 27 Jun 2015 12:35
- 17954 of 21973
Aye d your right, but golf and bowls to play and up here in Aberdeen have to make the best of any sun we get. Fine, day trading in the winter :0)
cynic
- 27 Jun 2015 14:30
- 17955 of 21973
i was somewhat but not entirely surprised to read that ECB is not actually obliged to foreclose or similar in the event of default
for better or worse, i think there is little doubt that the markets are going to be in turmoil for next several weeks
cynic
- 27 Jun 2015 17:18
- 17956 of 21973
an easy summation ......
Greece Referendum Not A Simple Yes Or No
Sky News
Austerity, deficits, loans and currencies. Greece's euro crisis is about lots of things, but in the end it has always been about something else: national sovereignty and democracy.
When Greece joined the Eurozone (without a referendum, it should be said) it ceded some of its sovereignty.
Since the country now shared a currency with fellow Europeans it would no longer have direct control over its monetary policy.
That was simply part of the deal - and it is part of the explanation for how it ended up in the mess it is in.
It meant a dilution of sovereignty in economic "peacetime".
As part of the single currency, Greece lost control of its own interest rates, and thus lost influence over the yield on government bonds.
The country could suddenly borrow at unprecedented cheap rates - despite not having the productivity to justify it.
So began the bubble that fuelled the Greek crisis in the first place (a simplified version of history, I admit).
But even during "peacetime" Greece still maintained a certain amount of control over its fiscal policy - taxing and spending.
When the crisis struck and it needed to rely on its fellow Eurozone nations (and the IMF, and ECB) for financial assistance, it effectively ceded most of its fiscal sovereignty too.
In return for the loans, the Greeks had to accede to certain demands.
There is nothing particularly unusual in this.
When the UK borrowed money from the US after the Second World War a whole host of demands came attached to it: that the UK should open up its economic system; that it should sell off a whole load of publicly-owned assets at cheap prices.
There was even talk about selling off the Crown Jewels.
None of this is particularly pleasant, but it is an unfortunate reality.
To make matters worse, in Greece's case, the lenders deciding those conditions discredited themselves repeatedly.
Their forecasts for the impact of austerity on Greece were completely wrong.
Their programme contributed to a depression deeper and longer than anything seen since modern records began.
But, having ceded its sovereignty - both monetary and fiscal - the Greeks could do little about it.
They had to suffer as a poorly-constructed bailout and overly-aggressive austerity was imposed on them.
In January the Greeks voted in Alexis Tsipras as prime minister on a manifesto which promised to cancel austerity.
The problem, of course, was that because of all of the above, in practice the Greeks did not and do not have the sovereign right to do that themselves.
The best Mr Tsipras could do was to try to get a better deal and improve the terms of the bailout, which is what he has been doing in Brussels and Athens for the past six months.
His decision to call a referendum next weekend seems to be a tacit admission he has failed.
There are a number of short and medium term problems, the most pressing of which is what happens to the financial system between now and next weekend.
The slow-motion invisible system-wide bank run afflicting Greece's financial system over the past couple of months threatens to turn into a rapid, visible one.
People are already being photographed queuing up to take money out of their bank accounts.
There is the question of what the Eurozone decides today at its finance ministers' meeting.
Do they grant Greece the five-day bailout extension they are demanding? Do they refuse?
Do they simply talk about plan b - the capital controls and restrictions they would need to impose to incubate Greece ahead of a possible euro exit?
What part does the International Monetary Fund, who will almost certainly not get paid on time on Tuesday, play in the saga?
But more than these short-term questions is the bigger medium to long term one: if Greeks do as their prime minister is suggesting and vote no to the current bailout deal, what does that imply?
As far as many here in Brussels are concerned, it means Greece will effectively have voted to leave the Eurozone.
But Syriza figures are insisting it simply means another stage in the negotiations.
The answer to that question will determine the way many vote.
In Greece there is both widespread disdain for the bailout and the conditions attached to it, and widespread support for euro membership.
So the way the debate is framed will determine the result.
But the reality is that if Greece did leave the euro, it would face even greater short-term austerity and pain than it has in the past year or so.
It would face more financial turbulence.
It might swap euro bailout conditions with even more shady ones from Russia or China.
It would regain some of its monetary sovereignty, but in exchange for this it would suffer a fair amount of pain.
There are no easy answers here, which is why what looks like a simple yes/no question is far more complex and unpredictable than it seems.
deltazero
- 27 Jun 2015 17:48
- 17957 of 21973
hmmmm - kerrrrchinnnngggg - xmas has come real early this year - oh yes :-D
'Regrettably, despite efforts at all levels and full support of the Eurogroup, this proposal has been rejected by the Greek authorities who broke off the programme negotiations late on the 26 June unilaterally. The Eurogroup recalls the significant financial transfers and support provided to Greece over the last years. The Eurogroup has been open until the very last moment to further support the Greek people through a continued growth-oriented programme.'
just keeps getting better - and hopefully will teach all those do gooding nutters in the eurozone a lesson - now these do gooders need to get a grip on the immigration crisis which will make greece look like good fun and a walk in the park in comparison; before everywhere is totally swamped! o/t did you notice population of uk went up 500,000 last year - as always those who are able to add to the economy leave the uk and they are replaced with unemployable immigrants seeking benefits et cetera - even worse some terrorists are hiding amongst the immigrants with zero checks happening - the UK has become the dustbin of the world! dont forget when you read the numbers of immigrants coming in - that it does not include their children on top - so multiply that total by at least 2 (probably x 3 or 4 is more accurate and they really do breed) and you will see the dire state this country is heading - the UK is too small and our infrastructure from transport, power, hospitals, sewers, schools et cetera can't cope - then of course the different cultures - there are schools now where english is the minority language! LOL!
atb for next week though - and beyond! :-)
deltazero
- 27 Jun 2015 17:53
- 17958 of 21973
birthday and xmas come together next week :-))))))))))))))
'Eurozone finance ministers have rejected a Greek request to extend a bailout programme beyond 30 June.'
cynic
- 27 Jun 2015 18:17
- 17959 of 21973
shorting ftse via IG tomorrow looks almost too obvious a bet
deltazero
- 27 Jun 2015 18:47
- 17960 of 21973
;
deltazero
- 28 Jun 2015 00:14
- 17961 of 21973
assuming the greek referendum goes ahead: “Markets should be nervous at the Monday open as they position for a (potentially disastrous) outcome of the referendum,” Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency research at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in London, wrote in e-mailed comments. “Even if the the referendum brings us closer to a resolution, the nervousness could easily grow into outright risk aversion.”
likely opt for safe havens such as german bunds et al imo
deltazero
- 28 Jun 2015 00:45
- 17962 of 21973
satisfying......................
pop the champagne :-)
The far-right Golden Dawn are voting for a referendum.
That suggests that the government should get a comfortable majority, as Syriza and ANEL have 161 seats out of 300 anyway....
So, if no surprises occur, #Greferendum is to be shortly validated by #Greece's Parliament with votes of Syriza, ANEL (gov) and GoldenDawn.
12:36 AM - 28 Jun 2015
cynic
- 28 Jun 2015 09:33
- 17963 of 21973
have you placed the order for your yacht yet?
i guess you're already short of the markets so very well done indeed
meanwhile, Sunday IG (defensively) opened with both FTSE and DOW down 200/250 points
assuming the real markets open similarly tomorrow, and of course there'll be a lot of margin calls and forced selling too, the early falls are likely to be overdone
therefore perhaps a good opportunity to realise some of those hefty profits, and even go modestly long
my guess is that it'll be too late to open new short positions, or at least the risk/reward ratio is unlikely to be tempting
cynic
- 28 Jun 2015 09:35
- 17964 of 21973
btw, don't forget that this referendum is to accept or reject ECB/IMF proposals and NOT to exit € and eurozone
it is for tsipras to get a mandate to keep negotiating hard and give nothing
Claret Dragon
- 28 Jun 2015 10:24
- 17965 of 21973
Closed out of my long position on Friday on afternoon FTSE 100. Was disiplined with protecting my account. Correct decision. The Greeks are taking us all with them. Reminds me of 2007 when sages said Sub prime could be contained. Effects are going to find new weaknesses not thought of yet.