This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

Yes ..... intraday indicated a bottoming out from around 0900 hrs to just after 1000 hrs ....


nas uc - sector plus 0.67%





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (41.67%) 10 (44.33%) 775,828 53.90 - 54.73 974,349 (55.67%) 14 (58.33%)
5% (46.67%) 14 (58.35%) 1,416,970 53.71 - 54.76 1,011,449 (41.65%) 16 (53.33%)
10% (51.67%) 31 (79.75%) 5,280,988 52.72 - 55.13 1,340,669 (20.25%) 29 (48.33%)
15% (55.56%) 45 (77.06%) 7,609,658 52.01 - 56.67 2,264,839 (22.94%) 36 (44.44%)
50% (55.17%) 48 (77.72%) 7,964,558 51.84 - 56.70 2,283,143 (22.28%) 39 (44.83%)
100% (55.91%) 52 (78.43%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 56.88 2,333,835 (21.57%) 41 (44.09%)
all (54.74%) 52 (78.40%) 8,484,678 51.39 - 57.05 2,338,135 (21.60%) 43 (45.26%

late 3.9 mill buy now showing

Ains what does it look like now and will this close @55? I thought with the Varney quote this would stay down and hence have missed out on a great opportunity earlier. Currently↑2% @55.

The Varney thingy didn't help early on but the sector is holding it's own with exception of BT.

1.53 billion text messages were sent in Feb


Markets are marginally down but sector is up 0.35% and oom up 0.93% - chart intraday looks promising but subject to a market downturn



ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.28%) 14 (45.00%) 2,145,682 54.16 - 54.92 2,622,032 (55.00%) 15 (51.72%)
5% (45.24%) 19 (50.31%) 3,245,018 53.96 - 55.03 3,205,600 (49.69%) 23 (54.76%)
10% (44.44%) 36 (60.31%) 6,347,526 53.31 - 55.30 4,177,099 (39.69%) 45 (55.56%)
15% (46.30%) 50 (62.58%) 8,865,226 52.77 - 56.08 5,302,073 (37.42%) 58 (53.70%)
50% (48.67%) 55 (65.46%) 10,050,296 52.30 - 56.08 5,302,073 (34.54%) 58 (51.33%)
100% (49.58%) 59 (66.38%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.17 5,352,765 (33.62%) 60 (50.42%)
all (48.76%) 59 (66.37%) 10,570,416 51.92 - 56.24 5,357,065 (33.63%) 62 (51.24%)

fyi


Eire Cuts

38,000 go live! in Ireland

Vodafone Ireland has signed up 38,000 live! subscribers since the service was introduced on 6 November. Since then, more than 800,000 picture messages have been sent over the Irish network.

In addition, 50,000 Java games and 200,000 polyphonic ring tones were downloaded by customers to their handsets. There have been more than five million GPRS 'calls' to the Vodafone live! menu and 800,000 e-mails sent via Vodafone mail.

The Irish network's contribution to the group total is four per cent, which was hailed by Paul Donavan as a "tremendous achievement", indicating higher mobile usage levels in Ireland, compared with the rest of Europe.

A recent study of Irish mobile brand awareness by Millward Brown placed Vodafone at the top, with an 88 per cent total for spontaneous awareness, just 12 months after rebranding from rcell.

The survey showed that Vodafone was the best recognised brand - 'top of the mind' with 55 per cent of the sample (O2 achieved 23 per cent, and Meteor five per cent).

O2 scales back 3G roll-out

O2 ireland is proposing to cut its 3G roll-out costs in rural areas by adding EDGE technology to its existing infrastructure, reserving 3G for urban and other highly populated areas where bandwidth use is expected to be profitable.

There has been no response from regulator ComReg to the O2 submission, but it is unlikely to be enthusiastic at its attempt to modify a primary 3G licence obligation at such a late stage in the game - effectively reducing customer choice in rural areas. O2 Ireland is expected to achieve margin improvements in the second half of its financial year to 31 March 2003.

Pre-tax earnings from the Irish division rose 22 per cent in the six months to September. Turnover rose 11 per cent, helped by 43,000 new connections in the last quarter of 2002, bringing the number of customers on the O2 Irish network to 1.25 million.

Meteor queries roaming rule

Hot on the heels of O2's submission to ComReg over modifying its 3G roll-out, Meteor Mobile is unimpressed that it has not received a response concerning incumbent networks providing national roaming.

Meteor has called again for the regulator to look at the issue. The proposal is that Meteor would have access to competitors' rural networks. In return it would provide bandwidth to these networks in urban areas to relieve congestion.

"They don't want to admit it, but Vodafone and O2 have capacity problems", said Meteor Mobile corporate affairs director Andrew Kelly.

Meanwhile, Meteor has launched a media campaign and marketing offensive to change the perception of Meteor as a network with only urban coverage. Print and TV commercials are already running, but these appear to be more brand awareness-driven than an attempt to sell the network to potential customers.

Analysts suggest that Hutchison 3G is considering an acquisition of Meteor's GSM network as a base for future activities in the Republic, but the networks themselves continue to deny the idea. Meteor Mobile has just four per cent market share.

Mayo partnerships

C&C Cellular, claimed to be County Mayo's largest mobile retailer, has announced a partnership arrangement with O2 Ireland.

C&C has six retail outlets in Mayo - operating from Ballina, Westport, Ballinrobe, Swinford, Castlebar and Claremorris. O2 will continue to invest in improving mobile communications in Mayo with a view to sustaining growth and innovation in the region.

3G lands in N Ireland

Three counties in Northern Ireland now have access to 3G services; Antrim, Down and Derry. Hutchison 3G's 3 network is providing its high bandwidth video services across most of Belfast, as far south as Lisburn along the M1, and north along the M2 to Antrim town.

Derry also has primary coverage within the city, but this presently hands over to the O2 GSM network, as service between Derry and Belfast is not contiguous. Like the UK, congestion is unlikely to be a problem. A quick poll of Ulster dealers revealed nobody had handsets in stock. Coverage in the south of the province is not expected until December at the earliest, according to Vodafone's Paul Donovan.

Rugby texting

O2 has launched a text initiative designed to generate a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish Rugby Team. The person who sends the most creative 'good luck' text will win a trip for two to see Ireland play Australia in Perth on June 7. O2 will contribute 17c to the IRFU Charitable Trust for every text message received.

Fans text the word PERTH, followed by 53101. Each message sent will cost a maximum of 61c. O2's Gerry McQuaid, commented:

"We are proud sponsors of Irish Rugby at both national and local levels and we expect our initiative will generate over a million 'good luck' messages for the Irish team between now and May 24".





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (45.45%) 15 (50.84%) 2,373,376 54.19 - 55.14 2,295,229 (49.16%) 18 (54.55%)
5% (40.00%) 20 (53.98%) 3,472,712 53.99 - 55.33 2,960,855 (46.02%) 30 (60.00%)
10% (46.25%) 37 (66.48%) 6,575,220 53.35 - 55.47 3,314,802 (33.52%) 43 (53.75%)
15% (48.57%) 51 (67.36%) 9,092,920 52.82 - 56.35 4,405,276 (32.64%) 54 (51.43%)
50% (50.91%) 56 (70.00%) 10,277,990 52.34 - 56.35 4,405,276 (30.00%) 54 (49.09%)
100% (51.72%) 60 (70.79%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.45 4,455,968 (29.21%) 56 (48.28%)
all (50.85%) 60 (70.77%) 10,798,110 51.97 - 56.54 4,460,268 (29.23%) 58 (49.15%)

moving ahead quite nicely now as the FTSE gets going northwards

This was from earlier this morning .....

Williams de Broe takes a negative stance on European mobile phone stocks with sell ratings for Orange, mmO2 and Vodafone

This seems to have overcome morning weakness & getting really strong. Does L2 +ve?

seems to be a pattern




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (38.71%) 12 (39.06%) 1,179,180 56.13 - 56.93 1,839,449 (60.94%) 19 (61.29%)
5% (42.11%) 16 (38.48%) 1,425,034 56.03 - 57.04 2,278,013 (61.52%) 22 (57.89%)
10% (56.06%) 37 (60.95%) 4,344,568 55.17 - 57.23 2,783,493 (39.05%) 29 (43.94%)
15% (61.45%) 51 (64.55%) 5,101,576 54.82 - 57.25 2,801,797 (35.45%) 32 (38.55%)
50% (59.77%) 52 (64.23%) 5,301,576 54.64 - 57.65 2,952,489 (35.77%) 35 (40.23%)
100% (61.96%) 57 (65.59%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.65 2,952,489 (34.41%) 35 (38.04%)
all (60.64%) 57 (65.55%) 5,626,596 54.21 - 57.78 2,956,789 (34.45%) 37 (39.36%

Again has overcome morning weakness & getting stronger. Is L2 +ve or will it go <56?

Markets have turned again after a neg opening - Nas futures are marginally down but talk on oil situation is +

I think we will tend to slightly outperform the market. Sector is up 0.7% - FTSE up 0.06% OOM down 1.3% at this time @ 57p after 55p earlier.


ains





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (40.74%) 11 (45.04%) 1,574,166 56.45 - 57.18 1,920,977 (54.96%) 16 (59.26%)
5% (41.67%) 15 (44.63%) 2,105,608 56.29 - 57.37 2,612,130 (55.37%) 21 (58.33%)
10% (47.17%) 25 (50.86%) 2,832,408 55.92 - 57.45 2,736,730 (49.14%) 28 (52.83%)
15% (50.00%) 34 (47.13%) 3,192,556 55.59 - 58.28 3,581,999 (52.87%) 34 (50.00%)
50% (50.68%) 37 (53.64%) 4,202,521 54.44 - 58.37 3,632,691 (46.36%) 36 (49.32%)
100% (53.25%) 41 (53.78%) 4,227,541 54.34 - 58.37 3,632,691 (46.22%) 36 (46.75%)
all (51.90%) 41 (53.75%) 4,227,541 54.34 - 58.48 3,636,991 (46.25%) 38 (48.10%)

10:08 Thursday 24th April 2003
Reuters


Telecoms companies reported their earnings this week, signals indicate that the worst may be over
A ray of light broke through the gloomy telecommunications sector on Wednesday as earnings results from a number of companies demonstrated their ability to manage through a difficult environment.

Long-distance telephone company AT&T and BellSouth both swung to a profit in the first quarter, despite lower revenues, on reduced costs and capital spending.



Nextel Communications, the fifth-largest wireless telephone company, posted a 21 percent jump in revenue, thanks to its unique walkie-talkie-like service, popular with big-spending business customers.

Even troubled equipment maker Lucent Technologies posted a narrower-than-expected loss as its revenue grew sequentially and it posted strong profit margins.

The shares of all three companies rose, as did the North American Telecommunications Index.

The gains repaired the sector's sell-off earlier in the week, after Sprint, the No. 4 US long-distance company, posted weak first-quarter revenues and cut its earnings and revenue forecasts for the year.

After the market closed, wireless operator AT&T Wireless Services and cell phone chipmaker Qualcomm posted solid quarterly results on higher revenues.

The beginning of a turnaround?
"We think the bear market's over," said Nicholas Gerber, portfolio manager of Ameristock Mutual Fund. "In the bear market, any bad news gets exaggerated and any good news gets discounted. Now we're beginning to see a change of that. Bad news still gets exaggerated, but so does good news."

"The big question is, 'Is this the beginning of the rising tide that lifts all ships?" said independent telecommunications analyst Jeff Kagan.

"Unless you believe that telecoms is irrelevant in the future, which no one believes, you've got to believe that there's going to come an inflection point," he said.

The telecommunications industry has been undergoing a period of transition as people spend less time on traditional phones and more time on email and cell phones. High-speed Internet networks have been cutting into the number of telephone access lines in service.

Local telephone companies have entered the long-distance market with aggressive price promotions and discounted packages of local, long-distance, Internet and wireless services.

Meanwhile, a slowdown in the economy has caused telecommunications companies to cut back on capital spending, hurting equipment companies like Lucent. Competition among cell phone operators has intensified amid slowing customer growth.

New York-based AT&T said earnings from continuing operations rose 18.6 percent to $529m (332m), widely beating analysts' expectations. The company said its full-year results would meet or beat its previous forecasts.

"While the trend line is still negative as far as revenue declines go, it's fair to say that things seem to be stabilising," said Raj Dave, a debt analyst with Commerzbank Securities.

Nextel reports 'incredible quarter'
Atlanta-based BellSouth, the dominant local phone company in nine Southeastern states from Kentucky to Florida, said earnings, excluding one-time items, fell but still beat analysts' estimates.

Including its Cingular Wireless joint venture with SBC Communications, revenue fell 4 percent to $6.9bn. Cingular increased its revenue slightly while adding 189,000 new customers after two straight quarters of losses.

Reston, Virginia-based Nextel posted a quarterly profit that widely beat analyst expectations as customer turnover fell to a four-year low.

"What an incredible first quarter, especially in light of Sprint's poor numbers," said Todd Bernier, wireless analyst with Morningstar. "They continually are grabbing share."

Nextel's results contrasted sharply with the No. 4 US wireless operator Sprint, which posted a wider loss and revenue that fell short of expectations.

Lucent reported a slightly wider second-quarter loss, but earnings before one-time items also topped Wall Street's expectations.

AT&T Wireless on Wednesday posted a first-quarter profit and revenues rose as its customer base increased.

Qualcomm posted a higher net profit and revenue, helped by demand for its advanced cell phone chips that allow users to surf the Web at high speeds.

Shares of AT&T closed up $3.20, or 23.2 percent, at $17.01, where they were the second-most actively-traded issue.

BellSouth closed up $2.50, or 11.5 percent, at $24.21, and Lucent rose 4 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.72. Nextel shares rose $1.32, or 10.7 percent, to $13.67 on the Nasdaq.

Overall, the North American Telecommunications Index rose 6.5 percent, compared with an increase of less than 1 percent by the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

(Additional reporting by Ben Klayman in Chicago and Jessica Hall in Philadelphia)

Is L2 weaker and will O2 go <56? Also do you think the recent 11.5M trades were sells?

Not sure I saw them ..... total vol is only 45 million - there were a couple of 1 mill buys earlier. L2 looks weak at this time witg sets showing the buy orders around half the sells. Seems to be follwing the market - US futures have worsened and nas now -9.5 and dow off 61 points.

We could test 55p again but happy to hold at this time.

ains




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (58.33%) 14 (35.11%) 1,070,502 55.69 - 56.63 1,978,798 (64.89%) 10 (41.67%)
5% (54.84%) 17 (35.11%) 1,660,716 55.46 - 56.81 3,069,723 (64.89%) 14 (45.16%)
10% (47.54%) 29 (29.86%) 2,747,216 54.94 - 57.33 6,453,861 (70.14%) 32 (52.46%)
15% (48.00%) 36 (32.14%) 3,097,664 54.69 - 57.36 6,541,365 (67.86%) 39 (52.00%)
50% (49.35%) 38 (33.55%) 3,302,564 54.39 - 57.36 6,541,365 (66.45%) 39 (50.65%)
100% (50.00%) 41 (33.51%) 3,322,684 54.28 - 57.42 6,592,057 (66.49%) 41 (50.00%)
all (48.81%) 41 (33.50%) 3,322,684 54.28 - 57.48 6,596,357 (66.50%) 43 (51.19%)

Early morning dip again ......

Is L2 weaker and will O2 go <54.5? Also what do you think it will close at today?

Telecom sector is a litle weak this morning - along wit the general market

US futures are marginally off - ahead of weekend

OOm is under-performing but would expect a recovery against the market - I think a close around 55p.

L2 is around evens at this time - talk of another BR cut maybe



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (66.67%) 20 (69.46%) 1,782,127 54.27 - 54.91 783,543 (30.54%) 10 (33.33%)
5% (62.16%) 23 (61.13%) 2,320,927 54.09 - 55.19 1,475,957 (38.87%) 14 (37.84%)
10% (60.42%) 29 (56.31%) 2,510,527 54.01 - 55.59 1,947,818 (43.69%) 19 (39.58%)
15% (44.78%) 30 (47.79%) 2,710,527 53.72 - 56.72 2,960,806 (52.21%) 37 (55.22%)
50% (46.38%) 32 (54.09%) 3,488,211 52.66 - 56.72 2,960,806 (45.91%) 37 (53.62%)
100% (47.30%) 35 (53.81%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.86 3,011,498 (46.19%) 39 (52.70%)
all (46.05%) 35 (53.77%) 3,508,331 52.56 - 56.99 3,015,798 (46.23%) 41 (53.95%

From Cellular News


The adult entertainment industry has to be one of the most odd businesses in the world. It is all about one of the most natural things in the world between being born and dying yet practically no one wants to admit having any knowledge of ever having been near it and to top it all someone is spending 10's of billions of Euros a year on it.

But when looking at what the adult entertainment industry has done for the Internet, it is not surprising that more and more people in the mobile sector are secretly hoping that adult entertainment can help push the mobile industry forward in the same way.

Looking at the Internet, adult entertainment has helped push the Internet forward in many different ways. For example, getting access to adult content has helped the growth in the number of PC's in the home and been one of the reasons to connect those PC's to the Net. The adult entertainment business has helped the development of compression technologies, especially in streaming software and optimising bandwidth capabilities, surfers have upgraded their PC's with graphics and sound capabilities and of course embraced ADSL. Maybe one of the most important factors that the adult entertainment business should take some of the credit for is the fact that it has helped teach surfers how to install and use different software products like Real Video and given them a better understanding and knowledge of the capabilities of the PC and Internet. Although there are no statistics available, many peoples first buying experience on the Internet using their credit card could well have been for some adult content - making the next purchase for software, goods or other items much easier. Adult content has helped many other new technologies on their way including CD-ROMs, VCR's, various types of cameras, and even cable television.

Unfortunately, asides from adult content, it has been very difficult to make money on the Internet and the lack of micro billing from the start has simply meant that most surfers will not pay for most of the online content they find - asides from the "need to have".

It is simply this scenario that the mobile sector is now looking to, as mobile phones today really start having multimedia capability, with larger colour screens, video capability, larger memory on memory cards and processors on some of the smart phones that are faster than most PC's 10 years ago.

One of the biggest differences is that mobile consumers have never had access to any free content on their mobile phone. All content costs at least the price of an SMS or phone call. Another huge difference between the Internet and the mobile sector is that the mobile operators are already billing customers and any new content can simply be billed on the consumers monthly phone bill.

Even if the adult entertainment business decides not to go with the mobile operators billing systems, for example by offering an Internet subscription you pay with your credit card that includes access from your mobile phone, the mobile operator will still earn money on the actual data traffic that user will generate when accessing content over the air.

Of course, an adult entertainment provider could even bypass that, by offering the user to download adult content directly from his PC to his mobile phone, but then the user has to be careful who for example borrows his phone - as it has resident adult content on it that discloses his or her sexual preferences - something many people would prefer to keep private. It is much more likely that mobile consumers will go for content that they access online through their mobile browser - or as streaming - when the need arises - so to speak and absolutely no pun intended!

Those who think that no one in their right mind would enjoy adult content on a mobile screen simply because of the screen size will have to think again. There is already a mobile adult entertainment business that is - all things considered - doing quite nicely on the very limited SMS platform. Also mobile services are being used to promote adult content on the Internet, to buy and pay for passwords to an Internet site and other innovative uses of the up till now very limited mobile terminal capabilities. Also adult content on a larger colour mobile screen will be just as good or better quality than what we saw in the early days of the Internet, where there was already lots of adult content (so I'm told :-).

Already today, some of the major adult entertainment players like Private.com and Playboy have signed their first mobile content agreements and are ready to go with media rich mobile content and there is absolutely no reason why there wont be a big uptake on those types of services on the mobile phone - both for the novelty factor and ehmmm the other factor.

There are still challenges ahead including legislation issues and protecting minors from access. Also mobile operators both feel that mobile adult entertainment content is somewhat of a "no no" for their image and of course something that they don't wont mobile customers to be conned by, like many have been with Internet "dialer-software" and fixed line telephony sex lines.

While no one actually knows exactly how much is being spent on adult content on the Internet, it is much easier to track adult content on the mobile platforms. According to Strand Consults latest reports "How to make money on mobile services" and "How to make money on mobile services" Facts & Figures, adult mobile content will grow from a total market value of US$585 million in Western Europe in 2003, to a very conservative estimate of nearly US$3 billion by the end of 2005. Even though this figure could easily be much higher, US$3 billion is well over 10% of the total value of the mobile services market.

At the end of the day, the benefits from getting the adult industry to help teach consumers just one of the many new uses and possibilities the new generation of mobile phone offer - combined with the revenue opportunities - will just be to good for the mobile operators to overlook. Right now they probably cannot even afford to overlook it.

Ains what does the BR cut you referred to mean? Do you have VOD L2 also please?

bank rate cut being talked about ..... always helps



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (50.00%) 43 (39.55%) 5,355,415 124.34 - 125.46 8,185,911 (60.45%) 43 (50.00%)
5% (54.46%) 55 (49.47%) 8,219,243 123.96 - 125.50 8,395,911 (50.53%) 46 (45.54%)
10% (44.51%) 77 (45.76%) 9,545,899 123.47 - 126.52 11,312,823 (54.24%) 96 (55.49%)
15% (49.80%) 125 (45.06%) 12,741,319 121.67 - 128.22 15,538,109 (54.94%) 126 (50.20%)
50% (50.84%) 151 (43.84%) 12,987,025 121.45 - 129.01 16,633,416 (56.16%) 146 (49.16%)
100% (57.88%) 224 (46.87%) 14,874,796 119.23 - 129.42 16,861,528 (53.13%) 163 (42.12%)
all (57.00%) 224 (46.82%) 14,874,796 119.23 - 129.73 16,896,676 (53.18%) 169 (43.00%