Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Havent looked at it to be honest Driver, will take a peak

Only had a quick look Driver, its clearly a pure exporation play. Havent looked at any of the assets which is effectively what you are buying as you have no current production. Ultimately a gamble as to whether they hit oil before they run out of cash. Too small and too much of a gamble for me but could come good if they find a decent oil field

fund
If they find the black stuff I'll let you know.

Fund

Venture Production yearly figures due out shortly. Will make an interesting comparison with Dana seeing as there total capitilisation is comparable with ours.

I would not be surprised if we received a takeover approach. In my opinion for what it is worth Dana would make a perfect fit for at least two companies Gaz de France and Tullow.

Merrill Lynch raised it's price target last week on DNX to 1350 that plus the clearing of a stock overhang is due to the latest sp rise onwards and upwards from here.

Driver

I will be a multi millionnaire many times over if the price hits 1350 (it was 1350p lol)

The overhang is interesting, surprised we havent seen an RNS or 2 to know where (at least some of) the shares have gone

fund
I thought you was a multi millionnaire still it made you sit up, would be nice though it would even make my small amount look good.

This is how the times article reads, ML raised its price target to 1350p after last months placing of a 20% stake by MHR which cleared a stock over hang, if that helps.

Cheers Driver

I wish :-) havent got close to making the first one yet, still plenty of time

Did see the ML note, would still like to know where all these shares have gone

churchill

I wouldn't worry about dana. It's got great long term potential. Tlw only went up a lot last week because of the IC's recommendation. But you have to be aware how a large find will affect the sp of certain companies. eg. cairn's find in India was 2.5 billion barrels and since then the price has gone from 3.50 to 21.00. Tlw's field in africa could and i stress could (or rather the IC does) contain 1 or 2 billion barrels, we'll find out. Currently tlw have reserves of 352 million which makes up about two thirds of the company I think the rest is gas and some if not a lot of the price must be on potential finds. That's why I think tlw could double or triple if it has a find of this magnitude. Dana on the other hand, has I think about 1.8 billion barrels of potential North sea oil it's drilling for, I think this is why the upgrades have come recently, but this is still medium term and isn't going to move the sp in the short term necessarily. Don't worry about it. Venture production's results aren't as soon as you make out, I believe they're in a month's time. Very Good news for them today I think and a good value recommendation from the IC this week. VPC and Tullow are the two mid cap oils with the most in common because they're mainly north sea and have the most exposure to reliable north sea gas of any of the mid caps. Venture is , of course, a "scavenger" and it is on this basis that it got the private equity agreement announced today.

Regarding your point about different market caps , I haven't done the maths but of course it all depends on how many shares there are in each company.they don't all have the same number of shares, and in this caluclation it's also important to include ALL the options, possible awards, bonus schemes which may be forthcoming, etc.

Cheers,

Saintserf

some good points, with regard to Dana, it has some very large drilling prospects outside the north sea (mainly africa) though as you say with regard to timing, the next big news is likely to be second half of the year (unless Cross has something up his sleeve for the AGM). One area where Dana are very much ahead of some of the comparators is that they are fully unhedged and have been since the oil price started its relentless climb

Doing a quick comparison between Dana and Venture's final results for 2005.
Dana profit numbers far superior on less production presumably on the hedging issue. The balance sheets are even more revealing.Venture has some large liabilities with total net assets of 134 million compared to Dana's 270 million. Presumably at some stage there will be a correction in share values or am I missing something?.

Doing a quick comparison between Dana and Venture's final results for 2005.
Dana profit numbers far superior on less production presumably on the hedging issue. The balance sheets are even more revealing.Venture has some large liabilities with total net assets of 134 million compared to Dana's 270 million. Presumably at some stage there will be a correction in share values or am I missing something?.

Hi all

bloodbath over the last few trading days, have added some more at 1038p

fund
bloodbath you can say that again, still goo hasn't moved yet.

Appointment of Technical & Commercial Director

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200605261230026619D.html

Surprising developement. Current T&C Director Andy Bostocke has a huge number of very valuable options outstanding. Suggests he has been pushed out.

From another board.
A talk with Tom Cross CEO of Dana Petroleum.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10024182&sort=whole

cheers Driver,

interesting but not much new news in there.

SP getting a hiding along with the rest of the market again. FTSE in dangerous territory if 5500 doesnt hold then 5200 looks the next likely target on the downside.

Still got my core holding and will add at some point when the market seems more accomodating

The sp is getting back to a more sensible level I see.

Driver

keep holding, keep smiling :-)

Oil price comfortably back above $70 a barrell now and were getting closer to the second half where we will start to get a marked increase in drilling news flow