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Hil: Anybody in?

It's very quiet. long on cable. Sorry if I woke anyone up.

Hilary - it must have been someone else - perhaps Hilary9 - at Croc's funeral - sorry!

Saxobank still definitely looking for the dollar to drop, but it obviously doesn't visit their website.

hello hilary good thread

[August Gold] remained in a relatively tight $8.00 range this week, closing near the high end of the range, but nonetheless down just over $1.00 for the week. I wish I have a new and exciting piece of information to impart to you tonight with respect to golds potential, but instead, the same trends are intact that weve been discussing for well over a week. Gold is in the process of finishing up the final subdivisions of Intermediate wave (2) up from the May 10 low ($372.50). Because prices have yet to break under $389, which would confirm the onset of wave (3) down, we still have to allow for the possibility that a push up into the $410-$420 resistance area will develop prior to the next leg of the bear trend. Upside momentum continues to slow and bullish sentiment remains near the top end of the range that has coincided with rally peaks. Our stance remains that the next $50 move will be down. Only a push above the $433.00 peak would require us to reassess the wave pattern.">

The [U.S. Dollar Index] dropped beneath 87.15 today (Jul. 12 low) negating the near-term bullish potential. The index never was able to capitalize on the initial rally off Mondays low. Todays decline has drawn prices to near the 87.02 low of April 1, which is the next support. But todays break down also raises the odds considerably that lower support of 86.17-86.58 may be tested prior to a wave (X) or (B) low (the labels mean the same thing). The 10-day Daily Sentiment index was at 13.1% dollar bulls at the February low (MBH Commodity Advisors, 847-446-0800). Today the 10-day Sentiment index is at 14.7% bulls. There is no rule that says bullish sentiment cannot shrink even further, but it is in the area for a bottom right now. As soon as we can identify the end to the current selloff, we will discuss it here. Our intermediate-term forecast for a push up into the 98.50-103.00 has not changed at all.
It is the same story for the [Euro] as it is for the dollar index, but in reverse. Todays rally opens the potential for a push toward 1.2480, the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the February peak. The 78.6% retracement is 1.2676. You can see from the chart that bullish sentiment is steadily increasing to the extremes reached at past highs. As soon as we can identify the end of the countertrend rally, we will take a more forceful short-term stand. For now the uptrend has regained some short-term legs.

As you can imagine, this action is extremely bearish for Gold itself:

Hello moonie. I'll not be around for a week or two but I'll be back on the thread soon.

hello hilary...ok ..

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to present Fed's second monetary policy report to Congress for 2004, before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the Senate Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market players will nervously be watching whether or not the Fed chairman will reveal any new thoughts on the inflation outlook or the pace at which interest rates will be increased in upcoming months.

This thread is very quiet has every body stopped trading I am long cable any comments greatly appreciated.Edit Just got stopped out, gone in again at 18499 Looks as though I have got that wrong as well!!

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Wednesday - Jul 21, 2004

10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to testify on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second half of his second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM. Usually, the delivery on the second day is identical to the first, unless the Fed chairman believes that the financial markets misinterpreted him. The Q&A may also yield different comments.

I trade Forex most days, though only in small amounts, with varying degrees of success. Obviously I like the long, steady trends, but they've been absent lately. But I like to look at this thread in the evenings, so am bringing it to the top.

I've been tied up (metaphorically speaking) with other committments for a couple of weeks and will be for a further week or two. It's a shame to let the thread drop down.

Seems to be supported at around 1.81 so am currently long Cable which I'm looking to let run into the MPC next week as I figure that speculation will mount as to a further rise in UK interest rates.

I am long the Euro at 1.2055,but getting out if yesterday;s low at 1.1990 ish goes

Thought I would drag this one up from the depths

If US economy stalling and UK possible rate rise this month...
why is that Cable still sliding?