how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

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Melnibone my idea is more along the lines of a retracement of prevoius lows than higher.

Ym auction open.
What are your views for today?
Just watching atm.

rgds
zarif

copy of the saxo bank analysis on equities
Stock Market View:

May 12, 2004 - Europe



- The yen advanced in Asia and was headed for its biggest gain against the euro in more than two weeks after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced, spurring demand for the currency to buy shares. The Nikkei rose by as much as 1.6 percent after yesterday ending a six-day losing streak. The yen also gained after the OECD yesterday raised its forecast for Japanese growth this year and lowered the outlook for the 12-nation region sharing the euro. A report tomorrow is expected to show a gain in Japanese machinery orders. The yen rose to 112.65 per dollar at 1:43 p.m. in Tokyo, from 113.16 yen late yesterday in New York. It also gained to 133.71 per euro, from 134.33.


- Japan sold a record 14.8 trillion yen ($131 billion) to buy U.S. dollars in the three months ended March 31, according to a report released by the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo. The sales were a record for a single quarter, a ministry official said. For the fiscal year ended March 31, Japan sold 32.9 trillion yen, also a record, the official said. Japan has been selling its currency to stem the yen's gain against the dollar, which may hurt exporters by eroding the value of overseas sales and makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad. The ministry asks the Bank of Japan to buy or sell currency on its behalf.





Equity Market Summary -


The Dow climbs back over 10,000. Stocks finished higher after enduring a rough day yesterday. The Dow gained 29 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 10,019, while the S&P rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.9%. In the absence of any significant economic news, the rebound today likely indicates investors were hunting for bargains after the equity market sold off on Monday due to concerns about conditions in Iraq, the prospect of higher interest rates, rising oil prices, and increasingly desperate actions in China to curb the excesses of that economys boom.

The Nasdaq posted a very impressive increase today and more than erased yesterday's losses, boosted by continuing strength in the SOX semiconductor index (SOX 470.15 +11.25).

The S&P manage to recoup about three-fourths of yesterday's loss, while the Dow struggled to post a modest gain that still left the index slightly below 10,000...this was despite the fact that two Dow stocks got boosts from analysts...ExxonMobil (XOM 42.45) and Disney (DIS 23.03) got upgrades to "buys" from major firms...Altria (MO 53.35 -1.35), however, hurt the index as it warned of lower than expected profits for 2004.

The U.S. stock recovery was a broad rebound from recent losses spurred by bargain hunting as much as any specific news, as advancing issues greatly outpaced declining issues..

European equity markets ended the day in the black. Markets bounced back strongly from yesterdays losses. The FTSE 100 in London added 1.4% for the day while the DAX in Frankfurt closed 1.7% higher and the CAC 40 ended the day up 1.5%. European equity markets benefited from a cautiously optimistic opening on Wall Street and solid corporate results, which offset concerns relating to the prospect of higher interest rates. Tech stocks and financials were leading the way.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index found support at 3780 -- a small uptick did reach 3850. But it will likely be followed by further declines to 3720 - 3690. Further out, the objective may be the area of 3600.


- FTSE 100 Index - a small uptick extended to 4450 and may reach 4460. But further declines to the area of 4360 should follow. Further out, the target seems to be the area of 4290 - 4275.


- S&P 500 - The S&P 500 index did bounce back to 1095 and may extend gains to 1100. But the downtrend should resume thereafter, which should break through 1080 support and should subsequently target 1065 - 1060.


- Dow - The Dow did reach 10.025 and may extend to 10,060. But the average will probably fall further, take out the 9930 support and push through to 9800 later in the week.


- NDX 100 - the index bounce higher than expected and may reach 1430 before resuming the downtrend. The downtrend should thereafter follow-through to the 1365 base then further to 1340.


- Nikkei - the index corrects back to 11,200 - 11,250, but the downtrend should reassert thereafter. The next sell-off should go for the 10,400 area; further out, we are focusing at the 9600 level as next primary target.


- Hang Seng - the index went to as low as 11,350, and may recover towards 11,700. But the sell-off will likely extend further -- the main focus now is the area of 10,750.






=======================================



May 11, 2004 - New York



- European stocks rose as optimism that profit will grow regardless of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates helped the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index rebound from its biggest loss in two months. The Stoxx 50 Index rose 0.4 percent to 2670.66 at 11:43 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.5 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries that share the euro, added 0.9 percent.


- U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in March for a second month, suggesting industry is still struggling to pull out of its slump. Factory output, a fifth of the economy, dropped 0.3 percent following a revised 0.5 percent fall in February, the Office for National Statistics in London said. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent gain, with none expecting a decline. From a year earlier, manufacturing increased 0.4 percent. Consumer spending is fueling growth in Europe's second- largest economy while manufacturing has lagged. A faltering recovery in the dozen-nation euro economy, Britain's biggest trading partner, and the rise in the pound have crimped exports. Still, business surveys show industry improving over the past six months.



Indications in the U.S. stock market :

The stage remains set for a higher open as the futures market lifts to its best levels of the morning. The early favorable sentiment is largely a rebound effort from the market's slide over the past month, although upgrades of DIS at UBS and XOM at AG Edwards are acting as supporting factors.

Futures indications are slightly higher this morning in a rebound from yesterday's losses spanning 1.1-1.3% for the major averages. Overseas markets are also sporting mild gains on the heels of yesterday's broad-based pullback.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index has indeed been to as low as 3780 -- a small uptick has reached 3840 and may reach 3850. But it will likely be followed by further declines to 3720 - 3690. Further out, the objective may be the area of 3600.


- FTSE 100 Index - a small uptick to 4430 may extend to 4440 but it may be followed by further declines to the area of 4360 should follow. Further out, the target seems to be the area of 4290 - 4275.


- S&P 500 - The S&P 500 index may bounce back to 1095 area but the downtrend should resume thereafter, which should break through 1080 support and should subsequently target 1065 - 1060.


- Dow - The Dow may bounce back further and reach 10.025. But the average will probably fall further, take out the 9930 support and push through to 9800 later in the week.


- NDX 100 - the index may bounce back to 1405 early on, but the downtrend reasserts thereafter, and should thereafter follow-through to the 1365 base then further to 1340.


- Nikkei - the downtrend pauses and the index may rally back to 11,100, but the next sell-off should take place soon thereafter. Intermediate support is located at 10,400 area, but we now start focusing at the 9600 level as next primary target.


- Hang Seng - the sell-off accelerated, went to as low as 11,475, and recovers somewhat to 11,600. But the sell-off will likely extend further -- the main focus now is the area of 10,750.

Nice read Zarif, bearish set of devils at Saxo, aren't they?

Can't argue with their trends, but when you reach supports, like
this, I think that you should be wary of calling for an automatic
continuation of trends. Lots of folk get caught going short at
support or long at resistance. Need to wait for confirmation and
a retest, IMHO, before calling a range breakout.

Melnibone. (Cautious as ever)

Melnibone u r quite right -always best to let the market decide our actions and once the support has been truly breached then make a move.As u said in your earlier posts -decide on the stop and risk/reward before entering the trade.
me just scalping atm.

rgds
zarif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=

Just logged back on.
I see the S@P bounced back strongly from the 200Day EMA.
Dow now back above 10,000
NDX now back above 1400
S@P now back above the 1085 support.
Ho hum!

Now to see where they close.


Melnibone.

Still going up.

My Ftse Blue Chip longs that I added to just before the
close are going to look rather tasty tomorrow. :-))

Squeeze 'dem' Bears, Big Daddy US. :-)

Melnibone.

afternoon everybody:
I had opened a long about 3.15pm prior to going out on the dow and -the gods must be smiling as closed it out in good profit.
Just watching atm.

rgds

ps: all the boards look quiet today?

zarif

Good day for longs, zarif and maybe some shorts as well.

Snoball u r right - iam onto a short at the moment.i think best to scalp in and out and definitely not to get too greedy as than u watch it all slip away.

rgds
zarif

here u go...drag A to Z to test your mouse


Abolox! can you answer that stupid Question?Z

here is the stupid Question:-)..click

afternoon everybody:
Ym auction starting soon. Lots of data coming aswell.
I think its best to watch the perimeters as it can make a move either way as is still consolidating and ranging.
Rgds
zarif

managed a quick long and closed it in profit and am short now -which is looking healthy atm.

where is everybody today?
The BB is very quiet.

rgds
zarif

afternoon everyone:
The Ym is about to open in about 20minutes. So what are we going to see today?
In general its "red sea" on all the european bourses today. The Hang Seng and Nikkei have taken a dive and the Bombay index has had the largest dive in 129years.Not a pretty picture as the crude is at the highest levels ,terrorism threats and killing by a bomber of Iraqi leader etc etc.
Anyway enough of the doom and gloom.
As usual dont pre-empt the market -let the market decide your actions- If you dont its the "dead sea" for the trade as easy to get eaten by the beast.

rgds
zarif

managed a small long and short.
Just watching atm. I think it will try to close the gap down from open and then may either go up or tank down.The ftse closed just above support.
The levels to watch on the S+P are:
I feel in order that bulls want to regain the SP500 futures would need to retake 1091. They are currently trading at 1085. There is support right here, and 1080 then support at 1075 which is last weeks low. Below that the target is 1060

Just my opinion -it may be different from yours!!
Any ideas?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=

Take a look at the highs and lows on the above chart on what I
consider to be the most important index.

Do you see lower highs and lows or higher highs and lows?
Do you see a rising RSI or a falling RSI?

I know what I see. But just in case my monitor is upside down,
what do you all see.?

Melnibone.

I see a stranger

he brings news

you will be taking a journey

and you will return

i see my palm crossed with silver

actually mel, i don't see anything, what symbol should i be putting in

thanks

Mel same as bush - I just get a screen with enter symbol and a clean page.
rgds
zarif

Little read for before the opening of Ym Auction.

Saxo Bank Analysis byb R.Balan.

Stock Market View:

May 18, 2004 - Europe



- The euro weakened against the dollar for the first day in three in Asia on expectations a report Tuesday will show investor confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, fell to a 10-month low in May. The 12-nation European currency also declined against the yen after a report showed Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the first three months of the year, the eighth quarter of growth. Germany's economy is showing no signs of a ``self-sustaining'' recovery, the Bundesbank said yesterday. Against the dollar, the euro fell to $1.1974 at 11:08 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.2027. It also fell to 137.25 yen, from 137.48.


- Japanese stocks rose, lifting the Nikkei 225 Stock Average from a three-month low, after a government report showed the economy grew more than some economists expected in the first quarter. The Nikkei climbed 1.6 percent to 10,674.46 as of 12:42 p.m. in Tokyo. It fell to its lowest since Feb. 12 yesterday. The broader Topix index advanced 1.9 percent to 1073.25, with banks and retailers contributing almost 30 percent to the gain.


- Japan's economy grew at a greater-than- expected 5.6 percent annual pace in the first three months of the year as lower unemployment boosted consumer confidence and spending. The pace of growth reported by the Cabinet Office in Tokyo was faster than the 3.8 percent median expansion forecast by economists. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy grew 1.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, the eighth quarter of expansion. Japan's economy grew 5.4 percent from a year earlier, today's report showed. That exceeded growth of 4.9 percent in the U.S. in the same period and 1.3 percent in the economy of the 12 countries that share the euro.


- China may need to raise interest rates to curb investment if the consumer price index climbs above 5 percent, said a central bank policy maker. ``If consumer prices become uncontrollable, that is rising above the bearable limit of 5 percent, China may have to raise interest rates,'' Li Yang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said yesterday after a conference organized by CLSA Ltd. in the eastern port city of Qingdao. The central bank is concerned that an inflation rate higher than the one-year lending rate, currently 5.31 percent, may exacerbate price rises by encouraging companies to borrow and stockpile materials for profit. China's inflation accelerated to a seven-year high of 3.8 percent last month.





Equity Market Summary -


Another down day for U.S. stocks in Monday session. Equity markets finished with steep losses as further violence in Iraq and political unrest in India put investors in a dour mood. Rising oil prices also contributed to the trepidation. All three major indexes closed with losses of greater than 1%. Dow -105.96 at 9,906.91, Nasdaq -27.61 at 1,876.64, S&P -11.62 at 1,084.08


Numerous factors did the equity markets in yesterday, including the murder of the president of the Iraqi Governing Council, political turmoil in India, record-high oil prices, and sizeable losses in the European bourses, all of which pressured the trade. The market was able to make some headway to the upside in the aftermath of a report indicating that the U.S. Military found an artillery round loaded with Sarin nerve agent in Iraq. But there was little participants' conviction, as the major averages spent the majority of the session trending sideways. Majority of the sectors spent the session trading in negative territory, with laggards of note including the hardware, internet, networking, semiconductor, software, telecom, biotech, banking, insurance, transportation, and broker/dealer groups. Leadership to the upside was limited, although the REIT, gold, and oil services sectors closed the session with slight gains.


European equity markets ended Monday's session lower. The FTSE 100 in London surrendered 0.9% for the day while the DAX in Frankfurt lost 1.3% and the CAC 40 in Paris closed 1.4% lower. European bourses followed Wall Street lower amid rising concerns about high energy prices. Energy-intensive manufacturing and airlines were hit particularly hard. Worries about the strength and sustainability of the global economic recovery have been fueled by persistently high crude prices. Moreover, the election results in India are weighing on sentiment as the outcome is widely judged as a setback to the country’s increasing openness.




Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index did break the 3765 baseline and was followed by further declines to 3710, and a weak recovery at the closing hour. The weak rally from the low does not inspire confidence and will likely provoke further sell-offs -- further out, the objective may be the area of 3600.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index fell further declines to 4360, and was followed by a rally back to 4410 at the close. The uptick should fade out however --- more declines are in the pipeline. Further out, the target seems to be the area of 4290 - 4275.


- S&P 500 - the downtrend did resume, and traded sideways -- the index should eventually break through 1075 support and subsequently target 1065 - 1060.


- Dow - The blue chips consolidates at just above the 9850 trough -- but the average will probably fall further, take out the 9850 support and push through to 9700.


- NDX 100 - the index did continue lower, and fell below the 1380 base -- the downtrend should follow-through to the 1370 base then further to 1300.


- Nikkei - the downtrend takes a breather today, but the bounce will likely be smothered at 10.800 -- the sell-off resumes thereafter. The next sell-off should go for the 10,000; but further out, we are focusing at the 9600 level as primary target.


- Hang Seng - the index corrects back, probably to 10,300, but the index is now in full bear mode, and reinstates the downtrend at a new breach of 11,000. The sell-off will likely extend further -- the main focus now is the area of 10,500.