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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

maggiebt4 - 24 Jul 2007 21:15 - 185 of 504

Thanks again PTH I can see what you mean by waiting to establish the trend. So another question, (you did say I could ask!!!!) Regards SCHE I can see your support at 535 suppose it bounces off that, would you be looking for it to breach the 545 mark before going long, I do think this is going to to up again. Alternatively if it breaches 535 would I be correct in saying next support is 500?
EMG is still creeping up I think it willl test the high again, fingers crossed.

cynic - 24 Jul 2007 21:19 - 186 of 504

be prepared for a very bloody opening tomorrow morning ....... am so thankful i took slabs of profit over the last couple of weeks and shall probably now just ride out the storm ...... SOLA could easily tumble very sharply and having just looked at the charts, DOO could also fall heavily, but there will still be the odd stock that bucks the trend for special reasons - e.g. t/o approach

maggiebt4 - 24 Jul 2007 21:19 - 187 of 504

Forget that question PTH have just read the SCHE thread and have got my answers at least I got the 500 right :)

ptholden - 24 Jul 2007 21:35 - 188 of 504

maggie, you answered the second part of your question yourself, as to the first. I wouldn't necessarily go long just because the SP climbed back through a previous support line. It is important not to use any one indicator in isolation, use evrything at your disposal to maximise the success of a trade. Since I have started this thread I have continually assessed the overall state of the market, well at least my take on it. Not much point in going long on anything if we're in a major bear market (not saying we are, but.............) keep these things in mind.

pth

maggiebt4 - 24 Jul 2007 22:24 - 189 of 504

Thanks Think I'll follow Cynic's lead and ride out the storm. Hope it's a short one.

ptholden - 24 Jul 2007 22:42 - 190 of 504

If it's a long storm short the arse off everything :))

garfeebloke - 25 Jul 2007 00:18 - 191 of 504

Thanks Greyhound, I am a complete novice at this game and it's nice to hear from a pro. So given a 2-3 year time frame, where do you think cable might go? Take your point about dollar against other currencies, however, walk, don't run, I want to get my head around cable first. Cheers

cynic - 25 Jul 2007 08:16 - 192 of 504

CSR had to be a great buy this morning at +/-800, so have just jumped back in at 807

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 08:40 - 193 of 504

garfee, nice question, 2-3 year time frame is a hard one as we're talking some 26 year lows. The last two times I traded cable back in 1992 when sterling crashed out of the ERM we saw a fast retracement. My general feeling is cable at 2.1050ish this time,should the 2.0530 hold. 2-3 years back to 1.80/1.60 perhaps. Really not sure so don't make any decisions on that!!! UK rates will eventually peak and US rates will start to fall (maybe another hike shouldn't be ruled out first).

Only trading cable is fine but you shouldn't look in isolation, look at AUD, NZD because these are the "things" that provide the impetus for the big overruns in the fx markets (which is why I think 2.10 is a real possibility - and then maybe buy property in Vegas being the fastest growing US city!!).

garfeebloke - 25 Jul 2007 08:44 - 194 of 504

Greyhound, thanks for that, I shall study.

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 08:50 - 195 of 504

No worries, as a footnote I should add I have lost a lot of money too! And the hardest thing is still to book your loss and move on. Stick with your gut instincts - I've closed many a position on speaking with major bank dealing rooms when they've got it wrong.

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 09:04 - 196 of 504

Dollar coming back with some clout right now, ready to blow all the above out of the water.

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 09:07 - 197 of 504

Guys whilst welcoming your thoughts on the TA aspect of FX, please remember this is a TA thread not a FX thread, there's one in the Traders Room if you wish to join in. Many thanks

pth

Greyhound - 25 Jul 2007 09:14 - 198 of 504

Apologies, no intention of hijacking.

sned - 25 Jul 2007 09:17 - 199 of 504

PTH - thanks for the ACU analysis - I'll just have to watch this a bit further then, and look at getting in around the 90 mark (hopefully there won't be any "big" news to spike it up before it gets there). Thanks again.

sned - 25 Jul 2007 09:20 - 200 of 504

cynic - CSR is a bit choppy though - nearly got in @ 731 this morning - already back up to 780 (800??) - please tell me i read this right

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 09:23 - 201 of 504

sned, CSR dropped through trendline support at 778p, looks like it's bounced off the 200MA.

garfeebloke - 25 Jul 2007 10:00 - 202 of 504

PT Greyhound, apologies, my fault.

ptholden - 25 Jul 2007 10:18 - 203 of 504

s'allright guys, FX TA is a good place to learn, moves so quickly, gives the opportunity to see what works and what does not :)

cynic - 25 Jul 2007 15:54 - 204 of 504

CSR ..... true i jumped back in too early, but i expected 800 to provide better support. however, i reckon their figures are pretty tasty and fully expect the stock to recover smartly (assuredly the kiss of death)

CABLE ..... 20530 now being challenged (arguably broken)though i accept there should be support somewhere between that level and 20470 ..... shall i top slice? ..... not sure ..... answer = i shall be out if $ weakens to 20520 (currently 20499.40), but may shift that later if $ continues to strengthen
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