Thus is down to 13.25p - I think this will go down to 10p next week

From the Scotsman - 25/9/2004

WARNING MAY SIGNAL END OF THUS

THUS, the Glasgow-based telecoms company, saw its future as an independent firm cast into doubt yesterday after it issued its second profit warning in the space of three months.

The struggling internet provider, which first warned of tough conditions
in July, lost a third of its market value as it admitted that aggressive pricing tactics from rivals would hamper full-year earnings.

The update saw investors scrambling for the exit, sending the shares down 27 per cent, or 4.5p, to 12.5p. The value of the company has almost halved in three months, despite a steady climb over the past two years.

The pressure on Thus has come from a UK marketplace flooded with competitors such as Cable & Wireless (LSE: CW.L - news - msgs) and Colt, some of which are prepared to offer corporate services at a loss to maintain market share.

Thus's woes have led to renewed speculation that it could become an acquisition target for a rival company, with C&W and former giant Energis (LSE: EGS.L - news) potential suitors.

One analyst said: "This could be the end of the line for Thus as an independent company. The only option for alternative providers is that some supply is taken out of the market and that would need some consolidation."

Thus chief executive Bill Allan agreed, saying that a shake-out "needed to happen". He would not be drawn on whether Thus itself would be a target, although he said he thought the firm was in a better position than at the end of the dotcom crash.

Andrew Darley, an analyst at ING financial markets, said that Energis or a private equity bidder were the most likely suitors. He said C&W was less likely, as it had recently bought UK-based Bulldog.

Thus said the profit warning meant earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITA) will be "not less than 39 million", down from 44m last year and initial forecasts of as much as 58m.

It blamed the setback on cut-throat pricing for corporate accounts by rivals, while a growing transfer from dial-up internet to lower-margin broadband was also hitting profits.

Bill Allan said that pricing conditions had been "much more severe than we had expected", and crucially could not put a date on a likely market recovery. He said: "I hope the environment can be improved. It's not normal for the industry, but predatory pricing is forcing down what we can charge for our services."

His comments confirmed the tough trading environment gripping the UK's splintered corporate telecoms market, marked by overcapacity and the return from bankruptcy of former US giants such as MCI Worldcom.

Allan added: "We have not lost any contracts, but we have had to renew them at a lower cost. Unfortunately, due to our size, we are a price follower not a price leader."

He insisted that Thus was not doing any of its business at an unprofitable level and said that revenue growth would continue to be healthy. Sales at its core business have risen 18 per cent, meaning full year revenues will come in at 360m.

Thus will also maintain its proud record of being cashflow positive for five straight quarters, something Allan claimed was "unique" in the UK sector.

But he confirmed that the firm had shelved plans to make its first operating profit by March 2005, saying that the pressure on margins had put paid to that goal.

Thus rivals such as Cable & Wireless, Colt and Kingston Communications, all of which have been blamed for the "unsustainable" pricing, lost out as the trading session went on. C&W was the biggest faller on the entire FTSE (news) 100, losing 2 per cent, or 2p, to 101p.

LOFTY DREAMS COME CRASHING DOWN

BILL Allan, the chief executive of Glasgow telecoms group Thus, is not a man prone to modesty.

"One day Scotland will be as proud of Thus as it is of the Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) ," he told The Scotsman less than a year ago, boosting the shares to a healthy looking 34p.

Sadly, while RBS continues its relentless pursuit of world domination, Thus has suffered two profit warnings and has gone backwards.

Its shares are stranded at 12.5p and analysts reckon that if it does not get swallowed by another firm, it will be a long, hard slog to achieve anything close to Allan's vision.

To recap, Thus was founded by ScottishPower (LSE: SPW.L - news - msgs) in 1994, but was spun off on to the stock market five years later.

The flotation price was originally put at 310p, but rose to the lofty heights of 800p during the height of the dotcom boom.

After the obligatory crash, Allan did better than most of his rivals by managing to keep the firm afloat.

He then set a target to become cash-flow positive by the end June 2004, a target the company made with ease - over three months ahead of schedule.

But now fresh challenges have emerged, forcing Thus to discard its operating profit target of March 2005. RBS is safe for now.

By: JOHN BOWKER -- 25-Sep-04

Indicators look set for a rise

Goldman Sachs buy a large batch and CVC also....WHY ?

Adding Monday.

Current recorded institutional holdings:

Shares in issue: 1348.6m 2.5p Ords

Major Shareholders Date Amount % Holding

Columbia Ventures Corporation 30/11/2004 96,070,756 7.12%
Legal & General Investment Management 30/4/2004 53,739,011 3.98%
Prudential PLC 30/4/2004 41,142,455 3.05%
Littledown Nominees Limited 30/4/2004 40,865,000 3.03%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc 30/11/2004 40,475,523 3.00%

If only we knew what those guys know
Something is going on behind the scenes thats for sure!

DAILY MAIL
Investment Extra:
* Wichford shares are a long-term buy

Other comment:
* Takeover rumours return at Westbury - Punters queuing for Thus as takeover gossip swells - Talk of a possible share buy-back lifts Bovis Homes - Earnings upgrades on the way for Hampson Industries in the wake of its recent 22.5 million cash acquisition of Texstars

Article from The Scotsman

Sun 12 Dec 2004

RUMOUR OF THE WEEK

DOUGLAS FRIEDLI

TAKEOVER talk returned to Thus, the telecoms group, after Columbia Ventures of the US upped its stake from 6.5% to 7.1%.

Thus was last week forced out of the FTSE 250 index following a collapse in its share price prompted by sharply increased losses. Some investors are concerned that Thus may be missing out on the latest round of consolidation among smaller telecommunications companies.

Fridays purchase by Columbia Ventures put 0.5p on Thus share price, lifting it to 14.25p on heavy trading. Columbia, an investment firm, owns Hibernia Atlantic, the company behind a new cable linking the US, Canada, Ireland and the UK.

Analysts believe Columbia may be interested in adding Thus to its portfolio of telecoms and industrial businesses stretching from Iceland to Mexico.

A few weeks ago, a Columbia spokesman described Thus as "an interesting company in an exciting market".

Columbia Ventures is a privately-owned investment company headquartered in Vancouver, WA. Its major investments are in CTC Communications, the largest facilities-based Competitive Local Exchange Carrier headquartered in New England; Hibernia Atlantic, a transatlantic fiber-optic cable providing broadband connections between Boston, Halifax, Dublin and the United Kingdom; Og Vodafone, a full-service facilities-based telecommunications company in Iceland; Globalstar, the satellite telephony and data provider; Tecnol, an aluminum extruder in Mexico; and Columbia Commercial Building Products in Rockwall, Texas.

The recent purchases could be the precursor to a bid, or as a holding company they might just want a stake in what they think is an undervalued Company with a future. Had the feeling for some time that something could happen, if not now, then in the new year. If not from Columbia then someone else. Hopefully they won't drop much from their present position and there is a good upside prospect. Worth a punt IMO. Thinking of doubling tomorrow if they do not run away from me.

Great start today. Putting the Telco sector into flavour.

Look at TTL also go.

Should move fast after 15p.
About 1M (750k +200k) buy at 15p earlier in the day.

Thus wins 'multi-million' stg contract with Johnston Press
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Thus Group PLC said it has won a multi-million sterling contract from Johnston Press, the regional newspaper and internet publisher, to provide a converged MPLS Wide Area Network (WAN).

Thus said it will link more than 160 Johnston Press sites, including local newspaper offices (such as the Yorkshire Post and Sheffield Star) with a WAN network that will centralise business applications and position the company for the migration to Voice over IP (VoIP).

Any ideas as to why the price hasn't moved despite the RNS & 9 Million trades so far today? You would have thought there would be some movement in price.

Thanks

Chris

Chrispine, it appears to be a feature of THUS that when new contracts are announced the sp goes down, today so far the price is unchanged. Lets take this as being positive :-))
Perhaps it is because this is a Yorkshire based contract and KCOM being a player around here that the market thinks that the margins may have been cut to get the deal.

Chripine, where did you get your trade figs? showing as 4.7 million on am

Sorry Opto..got squiffy eyes for a minute there

chris

your eyes didnt go squiffy - a trade for 4.6m showed up for a while taking the vol to 9m then disappeared

Thanks Fundy, I missed that one, do you think they took them back and got a refund :-)

I wouldn't be asking for a refund just yet !