how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Oh my God, I do have one, what the hell have I done, Bobby, Bobby please come out of the shower...

E-Mini S&P 500 Index (Code: ES,5/2004) - 10 Minute Candlestick Chart 

nice.

Hi Zarif

it appears E-mini achieved upside COP of 1095 last night. Now looking at OP at 1105ish.

Regards

FibCouple

See? What did I tell you? Bullish.

Managed a long on dow and SNP and a quick short on the dow.
Just watching atm as historically whenever the futures are strong they soon seem to fizzle out so best to watch and see how they are painting the canvas at the Ym.

rgds
zarif

remember as far as we are concerned there is no Bull or Bear position BUT the right position to be in.

Bloomberg have been reporting all day that these last 2 up days
have been on low volume.

Down days are good volume.....

Ring any bells from 2000/2003 ?

Still looking for swing highs and then shorts.
Relief rally and Bear profit taking to suck in fresh Bulls, IMHO.

Melnibone.

Mel: agree with you as I said on crocs thread better to short from a higher level.and be an Injun -Just scalp as we all know the markets are driven by fear and greed-not entirely on crude oil which incidentally has come off highs slightly.

rgds
zarif

Dow playing on anarrow range at the moment no need to go for a scratch trade and get clawed to death.

Just closed a brilliant short on the dow and taken out a small omg.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

8:30 AM ET. Initial Jobless Claims (expected -6K; previous +13K)

8:30 AM ET. USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Report

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTM Business Barometer (previous +0.4%)

10:00 AM ET. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (previous +0.17)

10:00 AM ET. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators
(previous +0.3%)

12:00 PM ET. Philadelphia Fed Index (previous 32.5)

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight and is
challenging initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1402.85. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning
bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1423.75 would signal that a low has likely
been posted. If the decline off April's high continues, a test of March's
low crossing at 1369.50 is possible later this spring. The June NASDAQ
100 was steady at 1396 as of 6:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index
later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher in overnight trading due to
short covering as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1090.79. Closes above last week's high crossing at 1102.50
are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low is in or is
near. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 1075.30 would
renew this spring's decline while opening the door for a test of weekly
support crossing at 1070.04 later this month. The June S&P 500 Index
was up 0.20 pts. at 1087 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later
this morning.

Afternoon guys -Here is a copy of analysis on equities by R. Balan of Saxo Bank.

Good read while Killing Time before the US open.

rgds
zarif

Stock Market View:

May 20, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks fell after a gain in oil and gasoline futures renewed concern that higher energy prices may damp global economic growth. Exporters such as Toyota Motor Co. and oil users including Singapore Airlines Ltd. led declines. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks in the region, shed 1.4 percent to 84.21 at 1:37 p.m. in Tokyo. The index had its biggest gain in two years yesterday after crude fell for two straight days. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 1.6 percent. The Topix index slipped 0.3 percent.


- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may as soon as this weekend approve Saudi Arabia's plan to boost oil output quotas because of concerns that near record-high prices will slow economic growth. Oil ministers from the 11-nation group will discuss the proposal to raise the OPEC limit by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 6.4 percent, during an oil forum in Amsterdam starting Saturday, President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said. OPEC states including Kuwait, Qatar, Iran and Indonesia have backed the Saudi plan. Crude oil has gained 26 percent this year in New York, peaking May 17 at $41.85 a barrel, as economic expansion in the U.S. and Asia spurred the fastest growth in oil demand since 1988.





Equity Market Summary -


Rising oil prices halted the rally in equities on Wednesday. June crude fell below $40 per-barrel mark in the morning, only to reverse course and close at an all-time high, as oil and gas inventory data did little to pacify investors' trepidation with tight supplies and rising demand. Strong gains in equities evaporated over the course of two hours and selling pressure continued into the close. A couple of positive earnings announcements released after the close of regular trading yesterday provided the buying pressure early on, but the bullish news was not enough to keep the Dow and S&P out of the red. The Nasdaq finished flat on the day. Dow -30.80 at 9,937.71, Nasdaq +0.35 at 1,898.17, S&P 500 -2.81 at 1,088.68.

Leadership to the upside was broad-based with laggards being identified in terms of sectors that are showing the smallest gains, but volume was only moderate at best, speaking to participants' lack of conviction to the move higher. The Nasdaq's failure to lift above the top of its recent trading range at 1037 (session high 1036) cooled the market's advance and the participants' enthusiasm even further. With two hours of trade remaining, selling of S&P futures drove the market lower, the uninspiring volume totals and Friday's monthly options expiration exaggerating the downmove.. At market close, sector leaders were networking, semiconductor, communications equipment, gold, coal, iron & steel sectors. The laggards of note were the biotech and REIT groups.

Aside from the energy inventory figures there was no other market moving data. The weekly confidence indicator showed a modest improvement in sentiment, while housing data confirmed that mortgage applications are indeed falling in response to rising interest rates.

European equity markets ended Wednesday sharply higher. The FTSE 100 in London added 1.3% while the DAX in Frankfurt finished the day up 2.2% and the CAC 40 advanced 2.1%. European equity markets were propelled higher by a strong opening on Wall Street. Continental bourses were driven higher by technology and financial issues while London saw a rally in mining stocks.




Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index extended gains to 3880 but will likely open sharply lower today to adjust to the lower levels of U.S. equities which collapsed after DAX trading was closed. The downtrend should be sustained until next week. Over all, the longer-term technical tone remains weak -- further sell-offs still due further down the road -- the objective may be the area of 3660 - 3650 next week. But strong support awaits at the mid-3600s, and a new bull market cycle may commence from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index rallied back to 4472, but counter-trend it still is. The index should open lower to adjust to U.S. closing levels, and we still see the index falling further until next week -- possibly to 4320, but more likely to 4290 area. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- S&P 500 - the index did reach 1106, but has been sharply lower since the -- the downtrend should reassert further and may fall further towards 1070 - 1060 in the next few days. Support will likely appear at those levels -- expect to see the index firm up and may commence a new upcycle.


- Dow - The blue chips did extend gains further to 10,125. But the downtrend reasserted and the average will probably fall further from here, take out the 9825 support and push through to 9750. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- NDX 100 - the index did rise further towards 1426, which nonetheless turned out to be countertrend, as expected. The index should eventually follow-through to the 1370 base then further to 1330. A new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend rally made it back only to 11,045, and indications are that the downtrend has resumed. The sell-off should accelerate further in the next few days with 10,200 - 10,000 asobjectives. A new bull market cycle initates from there.


- Hang Seng - the index did correct back to 11,500, and has likely resumed the downtrend. The sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there

Hi all: grief notes from Tom Hougards email.

Market in positive land atm and seems to be holding around 9950 area.
Will it shoot up or drop like a stone? anybodys guess as it option expiration week and anything goes in this week.
re: SNP500
regains 1090- there has been a lot of back-and-filling
Below 1080 would mean a retest of 1075.
If 1075 goes then last man turns the light off because it means a major failure of the market and a trip to the 1030.


spend a little time looking at the big picture again. Yesterday we failed at the 1105.25 which was a perfect 38.2% retracement. There was a lot fighting over the 1100 area but once it broke the bulls gave up. We are now back in no-mans land. The model points to exactly that and although a model is an attempt to describe reality which has not yet happened it has been very precise.



Conclusion:



My map of the day had us going up in the final hours yesterday. Instead we dropped like a rock. I had a big drop this morning which makes me wonder if my timing intra-day is out by half a day. For today I got a big drop on the open, and then a rally later in the day. This rally is according to the strategy to be shorted for a lower Friday. This is the plan as it stands.



I will watch 1090 today. If we get back above 1090 the bulls might make another attempt on the 1100. Below 1080 should retest lows. 1075 has to hold for the market to be remotely bullish.

Afternoon everybody:
options Expire today.The EU bourses are all slightly higher today -nothing significant.Choppy trading this week to say the least.many times safer to sell the mini rallies.
The Black Gold climbing High.etc etc.
Low Volumes -hence the whiplashes and than splat downs.
Also today the Futures on the Ym high -just same as few days ago than Tanked down good style.As i said in earlier post "historically when the Futures soar they soon seem to fizzle out and then even a feather will bring the pack of card down.

trade wisely and safely.
If in doubt stay out as by default it saves you money!!!!!!


rgds
zarif

Dow going north at the moment.But will it stay above 10K. We all know the market is driven by emotion primarily fear and greed add to this the option and index expiries.best to scalp in and out.
rgds
zarif

.

Morning all. I have seen a Double bottom on the Dow (weekly chart) and also on a Point & Figure chart. I read this as a possible move to 10300 which coincides with the R3 of the weekly pivot level. All imho dyor etc.

Thanks for the heads up on that IT.
Will check it out.

Don't you mean on the Daily, Insider?
My weekly (end of day data) looks bearish.

Look on stockcharts.com select Dow then gallery, you will then get the daily, weekly (you will see the DB) and P&F chart (you will then see the DB again). Hope that helps.