ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

(1) Funds could be raised in the US or, alternatively, if from UK you would twice the bang per buck, if you see what I mean; (2) Buying would be done in the US or at any rate from the US and therefore not related to UK prices; (3) in early years you wouldn't be repatriating funds but rather ploughing back in. My expectation is that the 'as seen on' idea appears typically American and could take on; not easy to replicate by others as ASOS have successful business model. Not so sure about the European markets. Any quotes from management re preferences?

China, India, Australia, Japan - also interesting markets.

What this discussion shows is that ASC have the very desirable freedom to choose where they go next. That is not to say that there is not huge potential in the UK market but that they should be laying the ground work from a position of strength. I would prefer the 'existing (conceptual) products into new markets rather than additional products to different retail sectors fo the home market'.

Eric

Positive piece in Shares with a buy recommendation. Target of 120p but already well on the way there. Very positive momentum.

Decided to put a few quid into a start-up CFD - the idea is to bootstrap up by reinvesting the margin generated. The initial investment needs to have good potential for short-term growth but also be low risk over the same time period. The answer, of course, ASOS! My reading is that we are perhaps halfway through a revaluation which will gather pace with the January trading statement. Seymour Pierce (now DGT!) are due an update of their forecasts and I suggest that this will be marked up. It will also become clear that there has been a significant cash pile generated (half year showed significant investment in stock which should have moved over the Xmas season); quite likely a first dividend with finals which will increase attraction to funds who go for combination of income and growth (or income growth).

Looking back through my file I dug up a piece by Lemming Investor in Jan 2005. 'Since the story is driven by the talents of Nick Robertson and his team, but also by the historical swerve from shop sales to internet sales, this growth story could continue until the company is ten times the size, and then do it again.' Less than 10% of the target age group had been reached (now 20%). 'With the company's model repeatedly scalable... we believe that this will become a very lerge company'. He goes on to point out that just 10% of the sales come from overseas and 'the company can repeat the performance in other countries'.

So sd's projections in 1885 (post not year!) look very cautious. With the switch to internet being at the 30% to 40% rate per annum, why should ASCs growth drop below 50% pa. So we are looking to, say, an eps of 12p in 2010; a pe of 43 as per sd would imply an sp of 540p. My view is that people will start to make these sort of projections and, given that they continue to deliver, the pe will move ahead of the action.

Considering a cfd challenge: ASOS and EWR against the world! 750 real money invested. Who can make the most money by (a) end June (b) end 2007. Any support for the idea - obviously on a separate thread.

Eric

Eric

Seymour Pierce (now DGT!). It's Seymour Pierce Ellis who are now owned by DGT. I believe the continuing separate entity Seymour Pierce cover ASC.

quite likely a first dividend - with a new warehouse for Xmas 2008 and expansion overseas already flagged, I would not necessarily expect a dividend just yet. Alternatively, it is possible they would declare a dividend to strengthen the SP and then raise new funds at the higher price to pay for the continuing expansion.

Happy ChristmASC and a ProsperASOS New Year

sd

The Shark is always up for a challenge, as you know, Eric! However, if I have learned nothing else from the last 18 months, one thing is for sure... No plans to waste a single penny on CFD's ever again. But I do have 3 punts which I would happily compete vs. ASOS. What about starting your idea with a New Year's Day Challenge...?

Good opening to new year. Expecting run up, as forecast by SP, to 120p by trading figures on 16th. These should resolve the gross margin issue as well as confirming the 60% trading uplift (note that comparison will include period of fire impact). On margin, I suspect the reason for downturn in H1 figure would be impact of on-going sales after re-commencement of trading. I think they will still be aiming at 50% margin less returns.

The most important issue as we then run up to the finals should then be the investment view of forward projections. With the internet market running generally at 30% to 40% and share of retail fashion market in selected area still only 20%, I can't see why forward growth should drop below 50%; i.e. 12m after tax in 2010(15p per share). The best investment strategy is clearly to tuck them away. But I also see that this message will be taken on board during the coming year and pe will increase to around 40. No reason why not 2 this year.

Eric

Almost made it to 120p! Volumes middling, around 535K shares. The 50K trade (marked as ?) definitely a buy taking the price at time of transaction. The 150K trade is a T which I think is Trade so may be ignored or included as Buy on same basis of delayed posting. Key factor is that all trades were one way suggesting that a trend line has been established and sellers will hold off rather than fighting it. Anyone see press comment?

yes eric was one of the express shares for 2007 ddid not see article

Thanks Woodie. MMs defensive opening at 124.5p middle price brought out some profit-taking. However, strong balance of buying at 123p so should make more headway.

Eric - HNY to you. T is a Worked Trade, informed to authorities at placing but not reported until filled. Allows a large - typically professional - trade to be worked through without upsetting the market (by which they do not mean you and me!).

122p today as I write. Any guesses where the next peak will be before a retracement?

If you are guestimating 12m after tax = 15p per share in 2010, I reckon the PE will still be at 20ish, so an SP of 300p - approx 26% compound growth over 4 years. Pretty good reason to hold through thick and thin.

sd Thanks for explanation of the T trade. Would you expect the price quoted to be an average price? The alternative, my own experience, is thata price is agreed when the contract is made and the broker takes the risk.

On the forecast model given, the pe in 2010 would depend on the then current growth rate. Clearly, at some stage it will slow down but it could still be 40% then which would justify a pe more like 30 and a price of some 450p. However, the key question is when this sort of potential will be taken on board generally by lead investors. John Marshall of Shares is a very keen advocate. We could well be going through the process of realignment at present which could be encouraged by the Xmas trading figures. Anyway, that's what my CFD is assuming (and hoping)!

no probs eric taken from the times last week
Robert Cole of Tempus (Times Online):

ASOS, an AIM-listed stock, gives the portfolio its most obvious exposure to the consumer economy. The acronym stands for as seen on screen, and the company is an internet-based retail platform targeted at younger shoppers. Internet shopping, perhaps, came of age this Christmas. ASOS, conceivably, may find itself the target of takeover approaches as one or another established high street retailer seeks to reinforce its own online presence.

Ten to follow/Robert Coles tips for 2007:

ASOS 111p

BSS 432p

Compass 290p

Cranswick 909p

GlaxoSmithKline 13.44

Intertek 833p

ITE 174p

Johnson Matthey 14.09

RBS 19.93

Venture Production 883p

Thanks again, Woodie. I think Tempus has a decent following and would have more impact than the Express. Not a bad portfolio.

agree eric nice mixture of stocks

John Marshall comment in Shares on ASOS. He reports that internet trading is ahead 50% year on year, ahead of the 35% prediction. "ASOS trading update, expected on 15 January, could well lead to profit upgrades." So he agrees with sd and myself - I expect he reads this thread! Positive buying volume again today although price hasn't moved. I am still looking for an investment upgrade around the statement. Whilst the decision will be taken with the finals, the movement to dividend is highly likely which has the advantage of bringing the share into the orbit of the dividend growth funds.

Eric,sd,woodie,and all.
HNY to all, Have been fighting my way back from a cardiac arrest in april last year and a house move in November which meant a isp change to tiscali. Have caught up with the thread at last and am delighted I held onto my holding which is now free of IHT. No change this morning so far, and concur with Eric and sd that its still a very good one to be in. SD

seadog happy new year to you as well ,looks like the s/p is set to be better then last year heres hoping

Welcome back, SeaDog. Sorry to hear about the problems but great that you are fit again. A nice little upward trend set in although perhaps you prefer waves. We are into new ground so no defined resistance level. The short term trend line is quite steep but there is also a defined long term trend line reflecting the on-going 50% turnover growth line. The short term trend line says 150p by the April prelims.

Eric