I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

What's this I heard about '0%' revenue forcast for BAY, by BAY, whether or not there is a war? Hmm. ;oO

This is not a bad summary of the current situation


02/10 17:11
British Airways' Eddington Sees `Tougher' Times Ahead (Update9)
By James Regan


London, Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc Chief Executive Officer Rod Eddington said this year will be ``tougher'' than 2002 after Europe's largest airline had to cut 9,200 jobs, drop routes and sell four planes to eke out a third-quarter profit.

Net income in the three months ended Dec. 31 was 13 million pounds ($21 million), or 1.2 pence a share, compared with a net loss of 144 million pounds, or 13.4p, a year ago. The airline will see no revenue growth in the next 12 months, Eddington said.

British Airways plans to cut its workforce 23 percent by March 2004 to counter a slump in air travel after the Sept. 11 attacks and a drop in business traffic. It's lowered short-haul ticket prices to compete with Ryanair Holdings Plc and other low-fare rivals, and built up cash reserves to weather a further decline in demand if there is war with Iraq.

``The problem is all they can do is focus on managing the costs,'' said Colin Morton, who helps manage $260 million at BWD Rensburg and hasn't owned the shares for about two years. ``It's a very high-risk stock.''

Shares of British Airways fell 4.25p, or 3.7 percent, to 112p. The stock's down 17 percent so far this year, compared with a 9.2 percent drop in the U.K. benchmark FTSE 100 Index.

``The route to profitability in the short term is going to be through cost reduction,'' said Chris Tarry, an independent aviation analyst, in an interview. ``Corporate travel budgets are going to remain under pressure for a long time yet.''

Falling Yields

The decline in business travel and the slowing global economy resulted in a 4.5 percent fall in yields, a measure of how much revenue the airline gets per passenger, in the third quarter. The carrier filled 70.9 percent of its seats, a year-on-year increase of 5.7 percentage points, after it cut capacity 1.8 percent. Sales rose 1 percent to 1.86 billion pounds in the third quarter.

``Yields were down -- that reflects the pressure we are under,'' Eddington said on a conference call with journalists. ``The current calendar year is a difficult one to read'' because of ``the threat of war, economic uncertainty'' and competition.

The carrier said Feb. 5 it had a 1.8 percent drop in traffic last month, led by a 7.6 percent decline in premium traffic. Economy- class traffic dropped 0.8 percent. Low-cost rival Ryanair, Europe's No. 2 no-frills airline, said the number of passengers it flew last month, which doesn't take account of distance flown, rose 55 percent.

``BA's profitability relies heavily on a turnaround of North Atlantic routes,'' said Morgan Stanley analyst Martin Borghetto, who rates the stock ``equal-weight.'' ``Whilst management is working hard to retain cash and to improve the debt position, a further downturn on North Atlantic routes would translate into significant downside risk for BA's earnings and cash flows.''

Competitors

Rival full-service European carriers have also suffered from a drop in demand for air travel. Amsterdam-based rival KLM Royal Dutch Airlines NV, Europe's No. 4 airline, has said it expects a second consecutive fiscal-year loss. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's third- biggest carrier, is calling 2003 a ``difficult year.''

Eddington said the company's total costs for the last 12 months are 1 billion pounds lower than the previous year, following the publication of its Future Size and Shape strategy review in February 2002. This ``demonstrates the determination of our people to deliver,'' he said.

The company said it expects to post a profit in the fiscal year ending March 31, reversing a 142 million-pound loss in fiscal 2002, ``in the absence of hostilities in the Middle East,'' though it sees no growth in revenue in the next 12 months.

Cash Reserves

``What we have been doing is accumulating our cash reserves'' to ensure ``we have got a war chest should we need one,'' Eddington said. The company's cash inflow was 1.1 billion pounds during the nine months through December.

During the third quarter, British Airways disposed of two Boeing 757-200 aircraft, one Boeing 737-400 and one de Havilland Canada DHC-8 plane. The company also grounded two Boeing 737-300s and one Boeing 737-400. It took delivery of six Airbus SAS A320 planes during the period. It also dropped 21 U.K. regional routes.

The carrier said it remains on target to reduce its workforce by 10,000 employees to 46,500 by the end of March.

British Airways's net debt was 5.19 billion pounds, down 1.11 billion pounds from March 31 and at its lowest level since Sept. 30, 1998.

The company has increased its proportion of fixed-rate debt to almost 60 percent from 25 percent, Chief Financial Officer John Rishton said on the conference call. He said 90 percent of the company's fuel is hedged through March, with half of it hedged through the first quarter of fiscal 2004.

Yields on British Airways's 250 million pounds of 7.25 percent bonds due 2016 were 11.647 percent, compared with 11.646 percent on Feb. 7. The bonds pay a premium of 7.36 percentage points above U.K. government benchmark debt of equivalent maturity.

how about a summary of the number of times you've actually flown with BA in the last year. can't be often, as you post 24hrs a day, 7 days a week!

What a strange thing to say why ..... I do posts lots but thats because I hold lots of shares - think and type very fast - have a fast broadband connection - fast laptop and a quick mind. Anyway don't worry - I don't have to work and retired many years ago.


FYI

LONDON (AFX) - BAA PLC said its seven UK airports, including Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, handled 8.8 mln passengers in January, an increase of 10.7 pct over January 2002 helped by strong traffic over the Christmas and new year holiday period.

Amongst the airports, passenger traffic at Heathrow was 7.1 pct higher than January 2002.

However, Gatwick has still not fully recovered from Sept 11 2001 and its aftermath. Although it recorded a 10.0 pct increase over January 2002, it was still 8 pct lower than January 2001.

The largest passenger gains were recorded at airports with the highest concentration of low cost carriers. Stansted added 30.5 pct, Edinburgh grew by 16.1 pct and Glasgow was up 10.2 pct.

BAA said all major markets recorded increases compared to January 2002.

Domestic and European scheduled traffic saw gains of 14.9 pct and 13.3 pct respectively, whilst European charter traffic added 5.4 pct.

North Atlantic routes increased by 9.0 pct, but have not recovered to levels recorded prior to Sept 11 2001. The two year comparison shows the North Atlantic market to be still 2.0 pct down.

Total air transport movements were 4.4 pct higher than January 2002. Cargo tonnage increased by 3.9 pct.

Last week BAA flagged that it expects passenger growth to tail-off in February and March. These two months are typically low months for business and leisure travel and this year there is no Easter in March

PARIS (AFX) - British Airways PLC French groundstaff began an open-ended strike at 5.30 am today, the CFDT union said.
The company was unable to give immediate details of the impact of the strike on flights.

The union said strikers are seeking pay talks as well as protesting against working conditions and down-sizing.

Those striking include reservation and baggage-handling staff plus all those working at check-in at Roissy airport near Paris.

The CFDT said workers' pay has been frozen for four years

Participation in the stoppage was 40 pct at the central reservation centre in Lyon, it said.

BA launches in-flight email and surfing
By James Watson Over the Atlantic at 35,000 feet [11-02-2003]
The web at 35,000ft - but not in the cheap seats
The first British Airways scheduled flight to offer onboard internet and email access to passengers took off from London's Heathrow airport today.
The service, available only to selected members of the press today, will be available to regular passengers from next Tuesday.

Initially it is only available on planes flying from Heathrow to New York, but the airline plans to roll out the service to the rest of its long-haul flights over the next two years.

BA chief information officer Paul Coby explained that the system will allow the airline to test passenger response and work out an ideal price.

"This is a chance for us to gauge how customers react to the service and will help determine how we roll it out further," he said.

The airline is charging between $25 and $35 per flight for the service. It plans to test alternative prices during the trial period to determine what passengers are willing to pay.

"Obviously, this is a tough time for the industry, which has put some pressure on the roll-out of this service, but we believe it will be a very attractive offering for our passengers," said Coby.

Connexion by Boeing is supplying the service, which connects passengers' laptops to the internet via satellite.

Users can connect through Ethernet ports in their seats, or via 802.11b wireless networking.

Passengers can access their corporate email, files and business applications from 35,000ft above the Atlantic. This story has been written and filed en route to New York.

Connexion by Boeing, a provider of mobile information services, is a business unit of airline giant Boeing.

Stanley Deal, the company's vice president for global network sales, said that it is tough to bring new technology to market in the current economic climate, but that the service presents airlines with strong benefits.

"The ability to bring business travellers a great service is very valuable," he explained.

"And, by offering the airlines the ability to implement new applications that can reduce operating cost on a day to day basis, we give them an additional incentive."

Lufthansa launched a similar three-month trial of the Connexion by Boeing service on its Frankfurt to Dulles route last month. Japan Airlines and Scandinavian Airlines plan to test the system on their planes from 2004.

The service will only be available to BA's First, World Traveller Plus and Club World classes.

aisoph has never been out of his one bedroom council flat and it shows

now ainsoph - just how many times have you flown with BAY in the last year?

i asked because you say you fly with them and that they are your favourite. my recent experience has been poor, so i was interested to hear a different point of view from an apparently seasoned traveller such as yourself.

before this i have asked you 3 times - posts 3, 7 and 10 - but each time you have not given a straight answer. you don't have to answer of course. but why won't you?

If I am going to answer I will always do so asap ...... Maybe it's on the bugs thread :-))

February 13, 2003

BA to reveal stronger ties with Iberia
By Russell Hotten



BRITISH AIRWAYS is today expected to announce that it is strengthening its ties with Iberia, the Spanish airline, a move that will fuel suggestions that they could eventually merge.
The airlines are to start code-sharing on a range of routes, enabling them to synchronise flights and cut costs by helping to market each others services.

Rod Eddington, BAs chief executive, has made no secret of his admiration for Iberia and its potential to be a natural partner should national airlines be allowed to merge. BA already owns 9.9 per cent of the Spanish flag carrier.

BA and Iberia already code-share on services from London to Madrid and Barcelona. Now ten other destinations in Spain are being added, including Seville, Malaga, Bilbao and Valencia.

The arrangement needs clearance from regulators in Brussels, though the code- sharing is allowed to operate while officials scrutinise the deal.

The code-sharing also involves services run by GB Airways, the BA European operation, and brings the total number of code-share routes between the three carriers to 57.

Having had a proposed alliance with American Airlines blocked, and a possible merger with KLM fall apart, BA is moving tentatively towards Iberia and wants to avoid any more strategic embarrassments.

Iberia, once known as an airline basket case, has been re-capitalised and restructured, and is now seen as one of the most financially strong carriers in Europe.

Mr Eddington believes that the global economic slowdown, compounded by problems caused by a war in Iraq, could lead to an easing of restrictions on mergers between flag carriers, and he is positioning the airline for when the time comes.

Meanwhile, Mr Eddington has sought to head off rumours that he could quit BA after what he described as the most difficult years in his aviation career.

In an interview with Travel Weekly magazine he said that he would see out his days in aviation with BA, suggesting that he had no intention of leaving in the near future. It follows mutterings in the City that, after two years struggling to put BA on a sound financial footing, he might resign.

broker downgrade rumoured - target 87p - seen these before and great for traders :-))


ains

(EXTEL) STOCKWATCH - BA dips as CSFB cuts target to 87p, downgrades to
STOCKWATCH - BA dips as CSFB cuts target to 87p, downgrades to 'underperform'

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in British Airways PLC dropped in opening trades,
s
Credit Suisse First Boston slashed its price target and cut its rating, saying
cyclical and structural factors mean the shares are materially overvalued,
dealers said.
In an early research piece, CSFB chopped its target down to just 87 pence
from 130, and reduced its recommendation to 'underperform' from 'neutral'.
The broker based its new target on a terminal EV/IC figure of 0.8 and a
medium-term EBITDAR (earnings before income tax, depreciation, amortization and
rental of non-fleet assets) margin of 15 pct.
Saying BA shares are significantly overvalued, the broker questioned the
firm's ability to improve its EBITDAR. It warned that weak revenue trends within
the industry may well mean that the company fails to achieve an EBIT margin of
10 pct for any of the next three years, despite its 'Future Size and Shape'
restructuring programme.
It warns that BA will be pressured by non-cyclical factors, like slack
demand in Europe for premium class travel, the success of the budget airlines
business model, and the EU-US open skies agreement.
Further, BA will also continue to be pressured by cyclical problems like
ongoing weak demand for air travel on war fears, economic uncertainty, continued
high fuel prices and short-term pressure from North American airlines.
Consequently, the broker has just slightly reduced its earnings forecasts
for the year to March 2003, but it slashed its EBITDAR forecast for the
following year to 1.177 bln stg with EBIT now seen at 359 mln.
At 8.28 am BA shares were 1-1/4 pence lower at 111-1/2.
kgd/ak




For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and
www.afxpress.com
*** end of story ***

There we go ..... good for trading and as I am looking to buy - good for me. Heard all this before and always interesting to see the same brokers churning out the same sort of targets .....



ains

what a very strange cove you are ainsoph. it's obvious from your evasions that you don't actually fly BA (or any airline) at all.

so that's a naughty little invention to bolster your recommendation of the share...

Dreamer .... I just won a fiver on what you just said :-))

To be frank - I came over here to get away from idiots like you and would guess it will not be long before you get a red card. Just had another fiver on 'you will not last until end of month' ..... don't let me down :-))

I do wonder if you can actually read ..... if you look above - you will see I want to buy not sell and therefore l am looking for a lower price - not higher .... duh

MUNICH (AFX) - British Airways PLC's loss-making German subsidiary Deutsche BA (DBA) said it is now unlikely budget airline easyJet PLC will exercise an option to buy it after wage talks with pilots collapsed.
DBA chief executive Martin Wyatt said the collapse of the negotiations has put DBA's existence under threat, and he is unsure how the business will continue.

He can not rule out that the business will have to be closed, Wyatt said.

All options are being examined, he added.

why

ainsoph is a bluffer but a funny one.his track record is dreadful.I wouldn't be surprised,if he hardly trades at all but does all this posting as a wind up.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm ..... my track record is actually incredibly good and have been making a great living since I retired at 30 :-))

If you look at the BAY thread on the other side you will note the number of times I was able to trade successfully ......

ainsoph

I hope you are making lots of money.What about all the many losing trades,you've been caught out numerous times on Advfn ? You like going long,so why dont you trade the FTSE shares like N Rock,ABF,Unilever that are more stable,instead of B Airways,Telewest,BT that have collasped ???

maybe so, brian, but there was always the hope that ainsoph might turn over a new leaf on a new site! sadly not it seems.


what reason did ADVFN give for banning you ainsoph?