how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Morning.
If you take the 5th of April High as the high and the 12th of May Low as the low of a trend on the S&P 500 then 1122 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the low. Any bets as to whether strong resistance will be found at this level today?

Snoball:
A very good morning to you and all.
I agree with you in that the S&P will have tough time at 1122-1125 to contend with.Also if you look at yesterdays performance of the ftse managing some say 15points up when athe dow was having a triple digit gain just makes you wonder that does the ftse signal that something is wrong or they dont believe in the Us that everything is hunky dory?
But as usual we shall not be concerned whether it is a bull or bear position but TO be IN the RIGHT position.

rgds
zarif

this is the saxo bank analysis by r.balan
Stock Market View:

May 28, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks rose after Japanese and U.S. economic reports indicated growth in the world's two largest economies is accelerating. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks, gained 1.2 percent to 89.40 at 1:38 p.m. in Tokyo. It's heading for its third straight advance, which will be its longest winning streak since the three days ended April 7. It's risen 3.1 percent this week. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.4 percent while the Topix index rose 1.3 percent, after household spending had its biggest jump in April since on record. In South Korea, the Kospi index climbed 1.2 percent.


- Japanese manufacturers increased production by 3.3 percent in April, the second month of gains, to meet surging global demand for steel, cell phones and semiconductors. The seasonally adjusted increase from a month earlier compares with a 3.8 percent median rise forecast and with a 0.6 percent gain in March. From a year earlier, production rose 8.5 percent, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo.


- Japanese household spending had its biggest gain on record in April as the economy added the most jobs this year, a sign that consumers will help the nation achieve its longest run of growth in seven years. Spending by salaried workers' households rose a seasonally adjusted 9.3 percent, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo. The economy added 240,000 jobs and the jobless rate stayed at a three- year low of 4.7 percent as the labor force expanded. Industrial production rose 3.3 percent, a separate report said. Consumer spending has taken over from exports as the driver of an expansion extending into a ninth quarter, the longest since 1997.


- Crude oil futures in New York fell for a fourth day after OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said yesterday the oil exporters group may agree to raise production quotas ``significantly'' next week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps a third of the world's oil, may boost its output target by more than 2 million barrels a day from 23.5 million barrels, when it meets in Beirut on June 3, Purnomo said yesterday. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is raising production and urged other OPEC members to do the same after oil consumers said high oil prices could undermine economic growth.


- Swiss economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the year's first three months, led by a drop in investments and a slowdown in exports and consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation grew 0.4 percent from the third quarter, when it expanded 0.5 percent, the Bern, Switzerland-based State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a faxed statement. Economists had expected growth of 0.6 percent, according to the median of 12 projections. The report gives the Swiss National Bank more room to keep interest rates at close to zero as Europe's eighth-largest economy struggles to gather pace after the first annual contraction in a decade in 2003.






Equity Market Summary -


Stock traders Thursday were encouraged by the upward revision to first quarter U.S. GDP and the continued moderation in oil prices. The Dow jumped 0.9%, the S&P gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Supporting the market's gains were technical factors, which included the major averages' ability to stay above their respective 200-day moving averages, which the Dow and the Nasdaq cleared in yesterday's session, as well as the S&P 500's ability to clear and the Nasdaq's ability to hold above their respective 50-day moving averages. The bulk of the sectors closed in positive territory, with the oil & gas services sector among the only laggards of note. Leaders to the upside included the internet, semiconductor, communications services, consumer, drug, steel, chemical, retail, and gold sectors.

European stocks rose Friday amid optimism the economic recovery is strong enough to weather high oil prices. Technology-related companies led gains. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 0.3 percent to 2688.92. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.5 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries using the euro, increased 0.8 percent. The benchmarks rose for the second successive session.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index will likely extend further towards 3950 - 3960. But be on the lookout still for a +test of the base+ type decline -- which may bring the index back to the 3800 - 3760 area. A recovery from there may evolve into a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index makes a new bid at 4470 and may extend gains to 4480 - 4485. Nonetheless, allow for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline thereafter, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - a move to 1130 is on the table again. From medium-term indications, we may see a pullback to 1100 - 1085 thereafter -- a +test of the base+ type of corrective action. Our earlier [projection of 1060 final decline is unlikely to happen -- the new bull market cycle may have began. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the indexmay rally further towards 1480 then do a corrective decline back to 1410 - 1400 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. The 1330 downside target won't be seen in this trading cycle and probably not until next year. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - we may yet see further upmoves to 11,400 - 11,450. But expect a +test of the base+ decline thereafter, for a retest of the 10,700 base. However, a new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the recovery may indeed extend to 12,300 - 12,500. But continue to make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11400 thereafter, a +tes of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Interesting article for you FX traders.
http://hardrightedge.com/wheel/hreforex.htm

A price drop on the US indeces should be on the cards today. What with oil price
worries etc.
Yes? No?

Well, it did drop but is now back up again.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX&d=c&k=c3&a=ss,w14,m26-12-9,r14&p=m10,m20,m50,m100&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c

Just to confuse you all further, (why should I be the only one.) :-))

Nasdaq100 seemed to put in a swing high yesterday, when it made
a lower daily high and low after 3+ up days.

Trouble is, it also put in a 'W' day, which to me shows strength,
and today it has put in a higher high.

Sigh :-(((

Melnibone.

Strewth Melnibone! There are far too many indicators on that chart.
No wonder you are confused, as am I.

I seem to like making things difficult for myself, Snoball. :-)

Seriously though, I can't find any market watcher or commentator
who is convinced he/she is right about direction at the moment.

As soon as we lose a trend, everyone just seems to mill about,
rushing from pillar to post. This is where margined players lose
money and then lose it even faster trying to 'win it back'.

Melnibone.

Which is why I'm not playing these days, Melnibone.
I'm quite happy to watch and hang on to what is left of my account for now.

Hey guys, any of you purchase US stocks or heard of a company called Parker Rowe (www.parkerrowe.com) They phoned me about 5k investment in a US stock.

I have heard something like this. I was phoned by an investment company in Austria I think (with a web site etc) offering me shares in a new American company producing products dealing in obesity - fantastic opportunity but I had to act really quickly as he could not hold the stock or his allocation for long. I think they call them 'boiler houses'. The guy suggested I moved everything out of my broker account and invest it in these 'couldnt loose' shares.

Now it would be extremely presumtious of me to advise anyone how to invest their money so I won't. All I will say is that they were using some very 'hard sell' techniques - like me agreeing that I would be a fool not to invest, and he was very persistent - ringing every day. In the end I wrote a very assertvie (perhaps even agressive) e-mail to him saying how it was a complete waste of time phoning me as I would never do it and I have not heard from him since.

I might be completely wrong and your opportunity be completely genuine.
Just be careful with your hard earned cash and good luck!!

Leave it well alone would be my advice.

Why in the world would anyone want to cold call loads of
the 'Little Guys' if they had a genuine money making opportunity.

Have I fell into an alternate reality where the world is full
of American philanthropists queuing up to throw money at me?

When anybody contacts you about buying something from them it
will, without exception IMHO, be them that is trying to make money
from You, not the other way around.

Melnibone.

Yep - have also asked the question on the other board with pretty much the same response. The description from JonP is almost identical but a little slicker, high pressure, could not get him off the phone, tried to slip in that I would agree in principal to lead the way. Even when I said no he started on about the chance the price might go up. Did give a number to phone back asked him where he was based he said Bearcelona, funny the number code was London. Might be legit but would not take the chance and has been pointed out this stock would have to be resold, is over the counter so might not be liquid. Yukk not interested.

Thanks for the thoughts and have a good week on the DOW

It sounds like you've been contacted by a 'bucket shop'.
It is illegal to tout for shares by phone in this country, I believe.
Don't take any notice of them kandrews250.

Stock Market View:
June 7, 2004 - Europe

Equity Market Summary -

Asia Pacific markets opened strongly Monday. The gains throughout the markets however trailed Friday's strong performance on Wall Street. Oil prices were down 18 cents in early Asian trading to U.S. $38.31 a barrel. Australian stocks opened strongly with the All Ordinaries Index up 0.41%, in early trade, to 3480.90. Singapore?s Strait Times Index was up 0.49% to 1800.42, while South Korea?s Kospi was up 2.53% to 800.53. At the same time, Taiwan?s Weighted Index had gained 2.06% to 5,842.68. In Japan, the Nikkei was up 2.41% to 11,396.09. The yen strengthened against the dollar to ?100.59. Japanese benchmark 10-year bonds fell 0.473 to a price of 99.61. The U.S. data was good news for Japan, whose export-led recovery is largely fuelled by demand from the U.S.

Although stocks finished near their lows of the day on Friday, the market still put up respectable gains for the session, bolstered by a number of positive fundamental developments. The May employment report was by all accounts impressive - average hourly earnings climbing 0.3% (consensus of 0.2%), unemployment unchanged at 5.6% (consensus of 5.6%), and nonfarm payrolls growing 248K (consensus of 225K). Technology was at the helm of the rally, due mostly to Intel's (INTC 28.28 -0.87) bullish mid-quarter update. The advance - supported by gains in financial, transportation, material, and cyclical as well -- held its own until late in the day, when sellers began taking profits ahead of the weekend. The session ended with modest gains all around. Dow +46.91 at 10242.82, Nasdaq +18.36 at 1978.62, S&P 500 +5.86 at 1122.50.

European bourses on Friday, which were generally already up on the day, firmed following the positive U.S. payrolls data. In late afternoon trade, the DAX and CAC-40 were both up around 1.3% on the day, while the FTSE-100 was up about 0.4%.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - Be on the lookout still for a "test of the base" type decline -- which may bring the index back to the 3800 - 3760 in the next few days. A recovery from there may evolve into a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year.


- FTSE 100 Index - resistance may show up at 4460 again. The index should fall further later in the trading day. Continue to make allowances for a "test of the base" type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - with the index failing to crack the 1130 resistance, expect to see a 1110 - 1105 pullback down the road. We may even see a pullback to as low as the 1090 - 1080 area thereafter -- a "test of the base" type of corrective action. Nonetheless, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher after a brief pullback. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the sell-off should resume, and we may yet see a pullback to 10,100 - 10,000 sometime next week -- a "test of the base" type of correction. Make allowances still for further declines to 9920 - 9910. Odds have shifted to now favor the upside longer term -- we may have in fact seen the major downside correction trough at 9,815 in early May. A new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the index should trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to 1405 - 1395 area -- a "test of the base" type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index recovers from last week's weakness, but no change in the view -- expect a "test of the base" decline, for a retest of the 10,700 base. However, a new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the index recovers to 12,400 - 12,450, , but it should resume the decline later in the week. Make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11400 from here, a "test of the base" type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Kandrews:
Hello one and all.
My advice is to leave these cold callers alone.
I had a similar experience last month or so back and posted the details on the traders board etc.They had the audacity to send me the contract note saying that i had bought about USD 5200 worth of this so called plant soil company shares which had not even been listed on the Exchange as yet.I asked the guys on the boards and with their advice slung the papaer in the bin and never heard from them again.

rgds
zarif

Dow climbing high atm. Reckon will see 10380 and over today?
My feeling is that it will pop and drop but will have to watch the results out at 8pm.
trade wisely and safely

rgds
zarif

Dow playing in a very tight range after yesterdays gains.10400 needs to be breached decisively and i reckon the next leg 10450 is going to be a tough nut to crack if it gets that far and greenbum does not spook the market with his speeches.
Best to watch the market as it can whiplash with small volumes and this so called Bull can fall into a bear quite suddenly.

rgds
zarif

Good morning,
below is the analysis by Tom Hougard.



My feeling is that the market is in a quarter end mark up phase which is seeing more upside than even the perma bulls could have hoped for. This is caused by the lack of participation from the big Wall Street firms. The evidence is in volume which is running at around 2/3 of the normal average volume. This does of course necessarily have bearish implications. It just means that no one is interested in selling and buyers have to chase prices higher.



Oil prices look toppy as well and may provide the catalyst for higher prices in the market. I could see a relief rally develop on the back of lower energy prices, but I do think that the market is very vulnerable to exogenous factors relating to oil. In other words traders are keeping a close eye on that sell bottom if a piece of undesirable news item rolls over their monitor.



I spoke to a friend of mine last night who trades the SP500 in Chicago. He told me that he will take Thursday off before the Reagan funeral on Friday. His reason was that Thursday is roll-over day from June to September and it often buggers the geometry of the contract. I have today and Thursday as trading lower but if many traders are taking off early we could find a market far more prone to market manipulation. I would therefore only short weakness.



The 1145 area is a huge target for the market. If we were to close above 1145 the market could theoretically move to 1170. I am not a big fan of this and I am in general not a big fan of the market right now. It feels odd to me and looks most suitable to day trading. Keep an eye on 1145 as the market could see a dramatic reversal at this price.



Oil is falling and I am looking at stocks like BP and Exxon Mobil. XOM has failed to trade significantly lower (only dropped about $2) since I issued a short at $44. We are now back around $44. If both BP and XOM trade higher from here, and can get through $44 it targets the all-time high at 47.75 at a minimum.



Tom

Afternoon guys /gals
Are we going to have a value wednesday or a voodo wednesday?
Rallies on low volumes even though bullish lack credibility imho.
nearly got to my 10450 level on the dow yesterday.Lets see what happens today

rgds
zarif