how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Strewth Melnibone! There are far too many indicators on that chart.
No wonder you are confused, as am I.

I seem to like making things difficult for myself, Snoball. :-)

Seriously though, I can't find any market watcher or commentator
who is convinced he/she is right about direction at the moment.

As soon as we lose a trend, everyone just seems to mill about,
rushing from pillar to post. This is where margined players lose
money and then lose it even faster trying to 'win it back'.

Melnibone.

Which is why I'm not playing these days, Melnibone.
I'm quite happy to watch and hang on to what is left of my account for now.

Hey guys, any of you purchase US stocks or heard of a company called Parker Rowe (www.parkerrowe.com) They phoned me about 5k investment in a US stock.

I have heard something like this. I was phoned by an investment company in Austria I think (with a web site etc) offering me shares in a new American company producing products dealing in obesity - fantastic opportunity but I had to act really quickly as he could not hold the stock or his allocation for long. I think they call them 'boiler houses'. The guy suggested I moved everything out of my broker account and invest it in these 'couldnt loose' shares.

Now it would be extremely presumtious of me to advise anyone how to invest their money so I won't. All I will say is that they were using some very 'hard sell' techniques - like me agreeing that I would be a fool not to invest, and he was very persistent - ringing every day. In the end I wrote a very assertvie (perhaps even agressive) e-mail to him saying how it was a complete waste of time phoning me as I would never do it and I have not heard from him since.

I might be completely wrong and your opportunity be completely genuine.
Just be careful with your hard earned cash and good luck!!

Leave it well alone would be my advice.

Why in the world would anyone want to cold call loads of
the 'Little Guys' if they had a genuine money making opportunity.

Have I fell into an alternate reality where the world is full
of American philanthropists queuing up to throw money at me?

When anybody contacts you about buying something from them it
will, without exception IMHO, be them that is trying to make money
from You, not the other way around.

Melnibone.

Yep - have also asked the question on the other board with pretty much the same response. The description from JonP is almost identical but a little slicker, high pressure, could not get him off the phone, tried to slip in that I would agree in principal to lead the way. Even when I said no he started on about the chance the price might go up. Did give a number to phone back asked him where he was based he said Bearcelona, funny the number code was London. Might be legit but would not take the chance and has been pointed out this stock would have to be resold, is over the counter so might not be liquid. Yukk not interested.

Thanks for the thoughts and have a good week on the DOW

It sounds like you've been contacted by a 'bucket shop'.
It is illegal to tout for shares by phone in this country, I believe.
Don't take any notice of them kandrews250.

Stock Market View:
June 7, 2004 - Europe

Equity Market Summary -

Asia Pacific markets opened strongly Monday. The gains throughout the markets however trailed Friday's strong performance on Wall Street. Oil prices were down 18 cents in early Asian trading to U.S. $38.31 a barrel. Australian stocks opened strongly with the All Ordinaries Index up 0.41%, in early trade, to 3480.90. Singapore?s Strait Times Index was up 0.49% to 1800.42, while South Korea?s Kospi was up 2.53% to 800.53. At the same time, Taiwan?s Weighted Index had gained 2.06% to 5,842.68. In Japan, the Nikkei was up 2.41% to 11,396.09. The yen strengthened against the dollar to ?100.59. Japanese benchmark 10-year bonds fell 0.473 to a price of 99.61. The U.S. data was good news for Japan, whose export-led recovery is largely fuelled by demand from the U.S.

Although stocks finished near their lows of the day on Friday, the market still put up respectable gains for the session, bolstered by a number of positive fundamental developments. The May employment report was by all accounts impressive - average hourly earnings climbing 0.3% (consensus of 0.2%), unemployment unchanged at 5.6% (consensus of 5.6%), and nonfarm payrolls growing 248K (consensus of 225K). Technology was at the helm of the rally, due mostly to Intel's (INTC 28.28 -0.87) bullish mid-quarter update. The advance - supported by gains in financial, transportation, material, and cyclical as well -- held its own until late in the day, when sellers began taking profits ahead of the weekend. The session ended with modest gains all around. Dow +46.91 at 10242.82, Nasdaq +18.36 at 1978.62, S&P 500 +5.86 at 1122.50.

European bourses on Friday, which were generally already up on the day, firmed following the positive U.S. payrolls data. In late afternoon trade, the DAX and CAC-40 were both up around 1.3% on the day, while the FTSE-100 was up about 0.4%.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - Be on the lookout still for a "test of the base" type decline -- which may bring the index back to the 3800 - 3760 in the next few days. A recovery from there may evolve into a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year.


- FTSE 100 Index - resistance may show up at 4460 again. The index should fall further later in the trading day. Continue to make allowances for a "test of the base" type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - with the index failing to crack the 1130 resistance, expect to see a 1110 - 1105 pullback down the road. We may even see a pullback to as low as the 1090 - 1080 area thereafter -- a "test of the base" type of corrective action. Nonetheless, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher after a brief pullback. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the sell-off should resume, and we may yet see a pullback to 10,100 - 10,000 sometime next week -- a "test of the base" type of correction. Make allowances still for further declines to 9920 - 9910. Odds have shifted to now favor the upside longer term -- we may have in fact seen the major downside correction trough at 9,815 in early May. A new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the index should trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to 1405 - 1395 area -- a "test of the base" type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index recovers from last week's weakness, but no change in the view -- expect a "test of the base" decline, for a retest of the 10,700 base. However, a new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the index recovers to 12,400 - 12,450, , but it should resume the decline later in the week. Make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 - 11400 from here, a "test of the base" type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Kandrews:
Hello one and all.
My advice is to leave these cold callers alone.
I had a similar experience last month or so back and posted the details on the traders board etc.They had the audacity to send me the contract note saying that i had bought about USD 5200 worth of this so called plant soil company shares which had not even been listed on the Exchange as yet.I asked the guys on the boards and with their advice slung the papaer in the bin and never heard from them again.

rgds
zarif

Dow climbing high atm. Reckon will see 10380 and over today?
My feeling is that it will pop and drop but will have to watch the results out at 8pm.
trade wisely and safely

rgds
zarif

Dow playing in a very tight range after yesterdays gains.10400 needs to be breached decisively and i reckon the next leg 10450 is going to be a tough nut to crack if it gets that far and greenbum does not spook the market with his speeches.
Best to watch the market as it can whiplash with small volumes and this so called Bull can fall into a bear quite suddenly.

rgds
zarif

Good morning,
below is the analysis by Tom Hougard.



My feeling is that the market is in a quarter end mark up phase which is seeing more upside than even the perma bulls could have hoped for. This is caused by the lack of participation from the big Wall Street firms. The evidence is in volume which is running at around 2/3 of the normal average volume. This does of course necessarily have bearish implications. It just means that no one is interested in selling and buyers have to chase prices higher.



Oil prices look toppy as well and may provide the catalyst for higher prices in the market. I could see a relief rally develop on the back of lower energy prices, but I do think that the market is very vulnerable to exogenous factors relating to oil. In other words traders are keeping a close eye on that sell bottom if a piece of undesirable news item rolls over their monitor.



I spoke to a friend of mine last night who trades the SP500 in Chicago. He told me that he will take Thursday off before the Reagan funeral on Friday. His reason was that Thursday is roll-over day from June to September and it often buggers the geometry of the contract. I have today and Thursday as trading lower but if many traders are taking off early we could find a market far more prone to market manipulation. I would therefore only short weakness.



The 1145 area is a huge target for the market. If we were to close above 1145 the market could theoretically move to 1170. I am not a big fan of this and I am in general not a big fan of the market right now. It feels odd to me and looks most suitable to day trading. Keep an eye on 1145 as the market could see a dramatic reversal at this price.



Oil is falling and I am looking at stocks like BP and Exxon Mobil. XOM has failed to trade significantly lower (only dropped about $2) since I issued a short at $44. We are now back around $44. If both BP and XOM trade higher from here, and can get through $44 it targets the all-time high at 47.75 at a minimum.



Tom

Afternoon guys /gals
Are we going to have a value wednesday or a voodo wednesday?
Rallies on low volumes even though bullish lack credibility imho.
nearly got to my 10450 level on the dow yesterday.Lets see what happens today

rgds
zarif

NDX just kissed yesterdays low.

If it breaks it, it is in theory, a swing high short.

Melnibone.

Off for the evening out now.Doing a recording session with the band today.
Closed the dow short in profit and have got Cable long open atm

rgds
zarif

Published: Jun. 10 2004, 07:10 GMT

The DAX falls to 3825 before the new bull market reasserts; FTSE 100 may also fall to 4395 -- new bull market takes off thereafter


Investors had more time to consider Greenspans statement that, if necessary, the Fed was prepared to do what is required to maintain price stability in order to ensure sustainable economic growth.





Stock Market View:


June 9, 2004 - Europe



DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY:



- Japanese wholesale prices rose in May for a third straight month, led by gains in oil and commodities costs, reinforcing expectations that deflation might be easing. The corporate goods price index, which tracks goods bought by companies and the cost of electricity and other utilities, rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier, following a 0.2 percent increase in March and a 0.6 percent gain in April, Bank of Japan figures showed in Tokyo. The index rose in March for the first time in 44 months.


- Japans current account surplus rose 23.1% in April, year-on-year. The surplus widened 5.1% from the previous month. The current account balance fell from 1,823.3 trillion in March to 1,582.8 trillion in April, or just north of U.S. $14.3 billion. Meanwhile, the trade surplus rose 25.6%. Exports and imports were both up, 11% and 6.6% respectively. Japans export-led recovery looks set to continue.


- Australia's economy lost the most jobs in 14 months in May, all of them full-time, signaling economic growth is cooling as a housing boom and consumer spending slow. Employment fell 41,100 in May following increases of 121,900 in the previous two months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent, a 23-year low, from 5.6 percent as fewer people looked for work. The Australian dollar extended a decline on expectations a slowing economy will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged as U.S. borrowing costs increase.


- New Zealand central bank Governor Alan Bollard raised interest rates for the third time this year and said further increases this year ``look likely'' as inflation accelerates to a four-year high. Bollard raised the official cash rate, the overnight lending target rate for banks, by a quarter point to 5.75 percent, saying annual inflation may reach 3.3 percent next year, exceeding the bank's 1 percent-to-3 percent target range. Inflation may accelerate as oil surges, commodity prices rise and the New Zealand dollar falls, fanning import prices, the bank said in a statement in Wellington. Demand for housing and construction are also helping boost the economy, which may not slow as much as the bank forecast in March, Bollard said.


- German exports rose the most in 20 months in April, as accelerating global growth led by the U.S. and Asia boosted demand for goods from Europe's biggest economy. Sales abroad, adjusted for seasonal swings, increased 5.2 percent from March, the fastest since August 2002, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists had expected a 0.8 percent gain, the median forecast. In the year, foreign sales surged 15.7 percent. Exports, equivalent to about a third of Germany's gross domestic product, grew at the fastest pace in more than three years in the first quarter, securing a recovery so far restrained by increasing unemployment and stagnant consumer spending.





Equity Market Summary -



Japanese stocks today gained, led by consumer finance companies, after Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. said it may buy a stake in Promise Co. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent to 11,505.31 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. The broader Topix index gained 0.2 percent to 1155.24, with consumer finance and insurance companies accounting for two-thirds of its advance. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks the performance of more than 900 stocks in the region, fell 0.7 percent to 89.13. South Korea's Kospi index declined 0.9 percent, while Taiwan's Taiex index shed 1.5 percent.

Traders once again had little economic news to consider during the U.S. session on Wednesday. The only release of note was the April wholesale trade report, which showed a solid gain in sales but a surprise contraction in industry inventories. However, the drop in stockpiles should be viewed as a natural pause rather than a deliberate retreat, altering little the industry outlook.

In the absence of major economic news, investors had more time to consider Fed Chairman Alan Greenspans statement yesterday that, if necessary, the Fed was prepared to do what is required to maintain price stability in order to ensure sustainable economic growth. The stock market tone turned bearish; profit-raking ahead of the long week-end also added to the negative bias. The Dow lost 0.6%, the S&P slid nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.6%.

The U.S. market's weakness on Wednesday was broad-based, with the bulk of the sectors participating in the retreat... Laggards of note included influential sectors such as software, hardware, semiconductor, networking, disk drive, biotech, banking, broker/dealer, transportation, drug, healthcare, retail, and materials groups.

European bourses largely tread water through to midday Wednesday session but lost ground on a weak Wall Street opening, while in the UK, anticipation of a rate hike, weighed on equities. The continent's major markets are all down on the day. The CAC-40 falling furtherst, down 0.65%, while the DAX and the FTSE-100 both fell around 0.5%.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index was lower, injecting life to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- a one day sell-off does not warrant lifting vigilance -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index fell further, which may just develop into a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - the scenario of a large pullback before the onset of a new bull cycle, appears to be saved by the inability to crack 1145 wide open. Nonetheless, keep up your guard. A further sell-off during the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the scenario's 10,450 resistance seems to be holding up -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150. We still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Noneteless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - still barring a break above 1520 (expect a rise to 1515), the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index has been higher and has gone above 11,6000. A +test of the base+ decline to 10,900 may not happen if the index rallies beyond 11,650. But barring that, allow for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view hoiwever fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index recovers to 12,450 area, , but it may yet resume the decline later in the week -- no change in view just yet. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Copy of Tom Hougards analysis:
rgds
zarif

Lets review the situation of the market.



The market topped out on the 24th March 2000. We then dropped a classic 50% to end the bear market (for now) on the 10th October 2002. We then rallied 50% into the 17th February 2004.



In other words we went from 1554 to 775 and from 775 to 1163. This is the situation as we stand right now. The market looks tired and undecided to me. It is true that we have not seen any serious downside and we may rally from here beyond the 1163. However, we need to take out the 1163 area first. This has not happened yet and until it does you should be careful about being too enthusiastic about the long side.



The question you got to ask yourself is this: has the easy money been made in this market? Has the risks of the markets adequately been priced in? These are of course not technical questions but belong to the category of fundamental analysis. My argument here is that stocks are priced to beyond perfection. The stock market is expecting the US consumer to carry on spending. This is despite the fact that the bond market is now pricing in more rapid interest rate rises than Allan Greenspan is talking about.



The market found resistance at 1142 and dropped as I had hoped for. For today I am undecided. The market is in pre-holiday mode with Friday being closed for Reagans funeral. Today is roll-over day from June to Septembers contract. This creates a funny market.



The institutions will most likely have another wave of buying to mark up their portfolios going into month/quarter end. The market needs to hold the 1128 area from yesterday. This was test during the night and held. We are currently trading at 1135 in the SP500. A move below 1128 is a short with a tight stop. Otherwise, despite the sell-off yesterday you will need to favour the long side of the market.

Where are all the dowajers today?
Me i am zzzzzzzz.......
Too boring today.
Had a good short and a long on the cable so going to be nice weekend.

rgds
zarif

now to hit gds bar and the lap dancers there.

Dowagers. LOL!